Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,798
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Kamilo9635
    Newest Member
    Kamilo9635
    Joined

Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:08 PM, CoastalWx said:

The fact that nothing goes right between euro and gfs should tell you that it’s not a likely scenario for a bigger event.

Expand  

We’ll gladly take a smaller event…let’s get a few inches, and run.

 

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:09 PM, weathafella said:

Always a gfs bias at this range.  I see 12z as a positive so far.

Expand  

Yes.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The wrapped up solutions that deepen and cut off near out latitude have multiple northern stream shortwaves phasing. The 12z ICON has a piece of energy giving south from Ontario late in the game. A well timed interaction between shortwaves will lead to rapid tilting and deepening of the ULL. But if it isn't well timed, the result will be a clipper or squashed system.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:15 PM, eduggs said:

The wrapped up solutions that deepen and cut off near out latitude have multiple northern stream shortwaves phasing. The 12z ICON has a piece of energy giving south from Ontario late in the game. A well timed interaction between shortwaves will lead to rapid tilting and deepening of the ULL. But if it isn't well timed, the result will be a clipper or squashed system.

Expand  

Lots of moving parts…this will take time to figure out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:18 PM, WinterWolf said:

Lots of moving parts…this will take time to figure out. 

Expand  

Yeah. The ensemble spread reflects the uncertainty. But with the improvements to mid-range models, we probably only have another 24 hours to see improvements before the approx. final outcome starts to be resolved. I don't like the trends over the past few days towards a faster progressing, lower amplitude trof. And there are fewer and fewer deep individual members on the ensembles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:23 PM, eduggs said:

Yeah. The ensemble spread reflects the uncertainty. But with the improvements to mid-range models, we probably only have another 24 hours to see improvements before the approx. final outcome starts to be resolved. I don't like the trends over the past few days towards a faster progressing, lower amplitude trof. And there are fewer and fewer deep individual members on the ensembles.

Expand  

Improvements in mid range modeling?  You probably know more than me, but I haven’t seen too many improvements the last couple years in that regard.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The largescale features are supportive of a wintry event around the 21st as everybody has been saying for days. But unlike with the recent and upcoming rain events with single waves traversing W to E, the synoptic details of the weekend event and the angle of trof approach require excellent timing with wave interaction. That factor would seem to make a positive outcome unlikely. By memory it seems like these tend to work out best for eastern NE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:31 PM, eduggs said:
The largescale features are supportive of a wintry event around the 21st as everybody has been saying for days. But unlike with the recent and upcoming rain events with single waves traversing W to E, the synoptic details of the weekend event and the angle of trof approach require excellent timing with wave interaction. That factor would seem to make a positive outcome unlikely. By memory it seems like these tend to work out best for eastern NE.
Realistically I think most of us just want snow on the ground for Christmas

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/15/2024 at 12:19 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't love the strength of that primary so far NW.

Expand  

 

  On 12/15/2024 at 11:54 AM, CoastalWx said:

Euro has a strong s/w with a stronger parent low initially, but that leads to a nipple low into SNE. Need to see the parent low weaker and dig this a bit more south. 
 

GFS is weaker, but doesn’t get going until well offshore. Energy is more disjointed on GFS.

Expand  

Valid concern...March '23ed

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...