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Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dendrite
dendrite

To be really fair he hasn’t looked at a piece of guidance. 

Snowcrazed71
Snowcrazed71

Ya know... Being married to a guy... You know FAR too much about gay things than a straight man should know! Just saying... LOL   

40/70 Benchmark
40/70 Benchmark

If I wake up at 4am and the last post is from @ineedsnowor @MJO812, then I'll know an angel got its buns.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2024 at 4:08 PM, CoastalWx said:

The fact that nothing goes right between euro and gfs should tell you that it’s not a likely scenario for a bigger event.

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We’ll gladly take a smaller event…let’s get a few inches, and run.

 

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:09 PM, weathafella said:

Always a gfs bias at this range.  I see 12z as a positive so far.

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Yes.  

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

The wrapped up solutions that deepen and cut off near out latitude have multiple northern stream shortwaves phasing. The 12z ICON has a piece of energy giving south from Ontario late in the game. A well timed interaction between shortwaves will lead to rapid tilting and deepening of the ULL. But if it isn't well timed, the result will be a clipper or squashed system.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2024 at 4:15 PM, eduggs said:

The wrapped up solutions that deepen and cut off near out latitude have multiple northern stream shortwaves phasing. The 12z ICON has a piece of energy giving south from Ontario late in the game. A well timed interaction between shortwaves will lead to rapid tilting and deepening of the ULL. But if it isn't well timed, the result will be a clipper or squashed system.

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Lots of moving parts…this will take time to figure out. 

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2024 at 4:18 PM, WinterWolf said:

Lots of moving parts…this will take time to figure out. 

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Yeah. The ensemble spread reflects the uncertainty. But with the improvements to mid-range models, we probably only have another 24 hours to see improvements before the approx. final outcome starts to be resolved. I don't like the trends over the past few days towards a faster progressing, lower amplitude trof. And there are fewer and fewer deep individual members on the ensembles.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2024 at 4:23 PM, eduggs said:

Yeah. The ensemble spread reflects the uncertainty. But with the improvements to mid-range models, we probably only have another 24 hours to see improvements before the approx. final outcome starts to be resolved. I don't like the trends over the past few days towards a faster progressing, lower amplitude trof. And there are fewer and fewer deep individual members on the ensembles.

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Improvements in mid range modeling?  You probably know more than me, but I haven’t seen too many improvements the last couple years in that regard.   

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
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The largescale features are supportive of a wintry event around the 21st as everybody has been saying for days. But unlike with the recent and upcoming rain events with single waves traversing W to E, the synoptic details of the weekend event and the angle of trof approach require excellent timing with wave interaction. That factor would seem to make a positive outcome unlikely. By memory it seems like these tend to work out best for eastern NE.

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Prismshine Productions

Prismshine Productions

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2024 at 4:31 PM, eduggs said:
The largescale features are supportive of a wintry event around the 21st as everybody has been saying for days. But unlike with the recent and upcoming rain events with single waves traversing W to E, the synoptic details of the weekend event and the angle of trof approach require excellent timing with wave interaction. That factor would seem to make a positive outcome unlikely. By memory it seems like these tend to work out best for eastern NE.
Realistically I think most of us just want snow on the ground for Christmas

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2024 at 12:19 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't love the strength of that primary so far NW.

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  On 12/15/2024 at 11:54 AM, CoastalWx said:

Euro has a strong s/w with a stronger parent low initially, but that leads to a nipple low into SNE. Need to see the parent low weaker and dig this a bit more south. 
 

GFS is weaker, but doesn’t get going until well offshore. Energy is more disjointed on GFS.

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Valid concern...March '23ed

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