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Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dendrite
dendrite

To be really fair he hasn’t looked at a piece of guidance. 

Snowcrazed71
Snowcrazed71

Ya know... Being married to a guy... You know FAR too much about gay things than a straight man should know! Just saying... LOL   

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40/70 Benchmark

If I wake up at 4am and the last post is from @ineedsnowor @MJO812, then I'll know an angel got its buns.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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06z euro looks more like GFS. Clipper type system but you’re pretty close to redeveloping that for something bigger. 
 

We need to trend this back toward digging the initial shortwave deeper and that’s how you get a higher end system 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro looks more like GFS. Clipper type system but you’re pretty close to redeveloping that for something bigger. 
 

We need to trend this back toward digging the initial shortwave deeper and that’s how you get a higher end system 

Most of the ensemble members are still pretty meh, but the snowiest ones are definitely the more amplified patterns.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro looks more like GFS. Clipper type system but you’re pretty close to redeveloping that for something bigger. 
 

We need to trend this back toward digging the initial shortwave deeper and that’s how you get a higher end system 

I mean it’s in a decent spot for the lead time, with the major players showing up. How they all develop and come together is going to morph as the week unfolds, but not a bad place to be at on Sunday morning, almost a week out. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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for 144 hours ...     maybe this will be different, but from my experience ... when the 00z ggem, 00z gefs, 00z ecm blend looks the way it does at 6 days, best case scenario typically results in yeah.. you get something out of it but it ceilings a middling/pedestrian event. 

i do see the 18z to 00z to 06z large continuity breaking as a red flag - maybe there is a bigger event being masked by modeling ineptitude.   i dunno

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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it's interesting this model handling of the +d(pna) expression across the continent has been getting pancaked ( latitude squeeshed ) as an ongoing battle.   it really smacks like the the phase 5 mjo has more play in forcing a lower frequency transmission

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Kitz Craver

Kitz Craver

Posted
Posted
Just now, WinterWolf said:

But we take…lol, cuz we are peasants now.  For better or worse, this thing has many more twists and turns to go.  Following from long leads, we all know the game. 

Just get me festive, doesn’t need to be a KU, LOL

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I mean it’s in a decent spot for the lead time, with the major players showing up. How they all develop and come together is going to morph as the week unfolds, but not a bad place to be at on Sunday morning, almost a week out. 

It trended the wrong way though which is concerning. Want to see more amplification on todays runs or the ceiling on this threat will be quite a bit lower. I’ll still take any snow, but the higher end potential is gone if you aren’t digging that shortwave down into the southern midatlantic. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It trended the wrong way though which is concerning. Want to see more amplification on todays runs or the ceiling on this threat will be quite a bit lower. I’ll still take any snow, but the higher end potential is gone if you aren’t digging that shortwave down into the southern midatlantic. 

One run to another it changes…bad at 6z, better at 12z lol.  6 hrs ago it was a good run at 0z, 12 hrs ago it was bad at 18z, zero continuity.  All we really have so far is a signal of a system a week from now.  Does it redevelop?  If so, is it too late? Or is it more just clipper esque, etc etc….

Isn’t this supposed to be the fun part..the tracking, and the unknown twists and changes?  Gonna be a fun week.   

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Just now, WinterWolf said:

One run to another it changes…bad at 6z, better at 12z lol.  6 hrs ago it was a good run at 0z, 12 hrs ago it was bad at 18z, zero continuity.  All we really have so far is a signal of a system a week from now.  Does it redevelop?  If so, is it too late? Or is it more just clipper esque, etc etc….

Isn’t this supposed to be the fun part..the tracking, and the unknown twists and changes?  Gonna be a fun week.   

As we get inside 6 days, the changes will matter more. They are more likely to be correct and not just stochastic variance so that’s why we want to see the deeper solutions returning pretty quick during the next couple of cycles. 
 

When we’re 180-200 hours out, the run to run changes mean very little. By the time we’re like 120-132 hours out, any significant moves are more likely to reflect reality. 

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Kitz Craver

Kitz Craver

Posted
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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

One run to another it changes…bad at 6z, better at 12z lol.  6 hrs ago it was a good run at 0z, 12 hrs ago it was bad at 18z, zero continuity.  All we really have so far is a signal of a system a week from now.  Does it redevelop?  If so, is it too late? Or is it more just clipper esque, etc etc….

Isn’t this supposed to be the fun part..the tracking, and the unknown twists and changes?  Gonna be a fun week.   

I feel like there has been a recent subtle trend though of a stronger primary and less stream interaction, we want neither of those.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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9 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I feel like there has been a recent subtle trend though of a stronger primary and less stream interaction, we want neither of those.

Agree.  But we know this movie, in so far as how it usually goes.  Modeling the last few years is volatile right up to go time it seems.  The rug gets pulled out at 6 and 12 hr leads of late.  But ya, be nice to see a decent trend again at 12z. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

As we get inside 6 days, the changes will matter more. They are more likely to be correct and not just stochastic variance so that’s why we want to see the deeper solutions returning pretty quick during the next couple of cycles. 
 

When we’re 180-200 hours out, the run to run changes mean very little. By the time we’re like 120-132 hours out, any significant moves are more likely to reflect reality. 

Absolutely agree.  But as I pointed out to Kitz, these systems have been morphing right up to go time it seems the last couple years(or modeling has been off?).  This thing has a long road to go whether we see good trends today, or not. 

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted

Looks like I missed a bit with the most recent model runs. Hadn't been on since early yesterday evening. Had our Christmas party last night. Looks like a little back and forth with the models this morning. It's still too early for them to be coming into focus. Wouldn't be surprised to see them change again this afternoon. We shall see

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