Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[brooklynwx99]

like lol this is SO much better

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that's the one we're supposed to be following ...  this 19th bullying in routine is near...

we're still not completely shedding the wave space contention problem, in addition to the western ridge stuff... altho there may be a relationship.

It is the second low. But a new s/w embedded in the trough causing cyclogenesis on the 21.

[cleetussnow]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Are you twinging down there…

Nah. Has to poop.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

like lol this is SO much better

Yeah, tired of these s/w’s moving into Montreal when everyone is hoping for a coastal.

[Typhoon Tip]

ha!  i'd trophy case the 156 ggem's 500 mb heights and sfc

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Come on lets go…one effing time now. Start the subtle trends at d7 and get the big surface solutions inside d3. 
 

Not asking for alot lol. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is the second low. But a new s/w embedded in the trough causing cyclogenesis on the 21.

i was looking at the ggem?     - sorry you guys might have been gfsing

[MJO812]

Cmc went from a vort way north at 0z to this. Good trends so far.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

i was looking at the ggem?     - sorry you guys might have been gfsing

Oh sorry, meant the gfs lol.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Come on lets go…one effing time now. Start the subtle trends at d7 and get the big surface solutions inside d3. 
 

Not asking for alot lol. 

Agreed. Let’s pick this beotch off, and run it back for a T.D.

[CoastalWx]

Retreating high on Canadian, but not a bad look. 

[ORH_wxman]

Definite positive trends at 12z. What I wanted to see. Amplifying the 21st-22nd wave behind the first one is the ideal solution because we have a legit antecedent airmass in place. None of this garbage-0C-at-925mb crap at the onset. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Agreed. Let’s pick this beotch off, and run it back for a T.D.

Like Brady's last pass as a Pat?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[brooklynwx99]

i'd also much rather want amplification of a strong vort into a cold airmass rather than praying for a system to trend weaker in a marginal one. the former happens all the time while the latter is quite rare. we've dealt with the latter a lot over the last couple of years lmao

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Definite positive trends at 12z. What I wanted to see. Amplifying the 21st-22nd wave behind the first one is the ideal solution because we have a legit antecedent airmass in place. None of this garbage-0C-at-925mb crap at the onset. 

Yes very good airmass. Good trends today.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

We’ve lacked a good in airmass in just about every event the last 5 years minus Jan 22

[DJln491]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We’ve lacked a good in airmass in just about every event the last 5 years minus Jan 22

Yup.  constantly needing to "thread the needle."  saw that so many times in these threads.   Every damn storm..."gonna have to get lucky here guys and thread the needle for this one to work"  lol

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie looks decent at 144 too. Might want it slightly more amped but very nice look overall synoptically. Ukie always seems to either come in flatter or crazy amped in the medium range 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We’ve lacked a good in airmass in just about every event the last 5 years minus Jan 22

2022 actually had some good airmasses. 

[brooklynwx99]

what an improvement here

[brooklynwx99]

PNA is so much more meridional over southern Canada... even though it's just as strong, per se, it's functionally improved

[brooklynwx99]

ECMWF is closer to an actual coastal than 00z, just too sloppy

[WinterWolf]

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

PNA is so much more meridional over southern Canada... even though it's just as strong, per se, it's functionally improved

And the down stream trough response is improved as well due to the ridge being functionally improved as you point out. 

[MJO812]

Eps with a coastal signal. Closer than op.

[CoastalWx]

Euro op wasn’t too far from something. Just near a few tweaks.

[brooklynwx99]

on the other hand, the EPS is slowly crapping the first wave out while increasing the amplitude of the second

[SouthCoastMA]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro op wasn’t too far from something. Just near a few tweaks.

GFS gave you some CJ too, despite the miss. 

Edit: I'm a bit behind, already noted earlier. 

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

GFS gave you some CJ too, despite the miss. 

Edit: I'm a bit behind, already noted earlier. 

Ray said another set of runs to confirm a blog.

[Typhoon Tip]

this euro run is suspect beyond 120 hours for me.

the ridge barely progressing e, off an approximate 100 to 110w longitudinal axis, yet the s/w's are racing e and stretching the flow like that -

mm it's more likely those s/w slow down.  not sure about amplitude and what that means as far as any cyclogen, but that former practice is suspect.

[brooklynwx99]

EPS with a transfer off OBX