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Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dendrite
dendrite

To be really fair he hasn’t looked at a piece of guidance. 

Snowcrazed71
Snowcrazed71

Ya know... Being married to a guy... You know FAR too much about gay things than a straight man should know! Just saying... LOL   

40/70 Benchmark
40/70 Benchmark

If I wake up at 4am and the last post is from @ineedsnowor @MJO812, then I'll know an angel got its buns.

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

a trend that i mentioned to you a couple hours ago when describing the euro evolution.  so we have both guidance heading toward committing on the 22n instead of the 20th...

which preferentially in these index correction events, there more typically one event... if the pattern reloads, that's when you get your repeating maintenance/sub-index scale type fun - but that's for later on if need be

 

Euro:  "the first is the lead wave more focused on the 20th is weaker by a factor of 2 (est)... it's smaller and less deep compared to the 00z per intervals as it runs out ahead.

the second aspect that leaped out is the wave spacing between the 20th and the second opening up in the 12z compared to the 00z... bigger gap in other words

if the lead (20th) continues to attenuate then as Will pointed out, there's less b-c escape which of course services the latter amplitude. "

also the more significant +PNA occurs on the 20-21st which encourages a larger wave anyway. you're talking about another standard deviation

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_norm_anom-4577200.thumb.png.84261381b2307b951ca3ce99d4c701b6.pnggfs-deterministic-namer-z500_norm_anom-4804000.thumb.png.348242cf1294c59ef76549fec963b629.png

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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12 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

So is if the trend continues the 20th will completely disappear for a bomber on the 22nd?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

i don't think it does 'completely'   ... it may reduce and still play a role, too

in fact, i'm still not entirely happy with the scaling of the western ridge as the d(mass field) doesn't appear to satisfy the +d(pna) forcing.

that's code for it should be bigger.  the ens means of the euro and to some extend the GEFs have been routinely better formed/fitting. the operational runs may yet surge that more... then, it's not impossible that the operational models be destined to a subsume phasing.

that's when you have a southern wave - not necessarily the same as a subtropical jet born disturbance ...but just a wave s running underneath...; upstream ridge burst forces the n/stream to 'tuck' a powerful diving jet into the backs side of s system, and it's much more mechanically powerful wave by virtue of planetary aspects - it's like a black hole devouring a stellar object: the former eats the energy and becomes that much stronger.   i love space metaphors ...haha.  but in doing so, a monster is born and there's little to no trace of the original s wave left on the charts... just a deep low

taking liberties writing there - i'm not saying this is a subsumer, but anytime i see a s wave eject and that upstream ridge surge forcing a n/stream to dive like that, that is precarioius

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also the more significant +PNA occurs on the 20-21st which encourages a larger wave anyway. you're talking about another standard deviation

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_norm_anom-4577200.thumb.png.84261381b2307b951ca3ce99d4c701b6.pnggfs-deterministic-namer-z500_norm_anom-4804000.thumb.png.348242cf1294c59ef76549fec963b629.png

ha... i was just telling   prismshine ?   i was just tell that poster that the gfs may yet surge the ridge - you know, it might help if i actually go look at the gfs run now, huh

..it a'ight ..  that chart makes the point well enough

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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For what it’s probably not worth to anybody… the jma model was about to detonate a very intense northern stream bomb. the model just doesn’t quite go out far enough, but if you extrapolate this, that’s what you’re gonna end up with
image.thumb.png.32f4367cbbc632d00aafe900a550aa39.png

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Prismshine Productions

Prismshine Productions

Posted
Posted
For what it’s probably not worth to anybody… the jma model was about to detonate a very intense northern stream bomb. the model just doesn’t quite go out far enough, but if you extrapolate this, that’s what you’re gonna end up with
image.thumb.png.32f4367cbbc632d00aafe900a550aa39.png
Top is hr192, bottom is hr240. Chart is total accumulation but simple subtraction tells the tale7a08f4b012e433dea754437f83bc092f.jpg4770a6a16cfda096ed209ced935e70c4.jpg

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

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Boston Bulldog

Boston Bulldog

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Yeah sure GFS blew at 0z. You never see a coastal bomb show up every single run for days on end.

Synoptic errors are so huge at this juncture, but at least there is persistence surrounding a *threat*. The signal continues to grow stronger. Even 0z keeps all the necessary pieces on the playing field, that’s all I need right now 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Yeah sure GFS blew at 0z. You never see a coastal bomb show up every single run for days on end.

Synoptic errors are so huge at this juncture, but at least there is persistence surrounding a *threat*. The signal continues to grow stronger. Even 0z keeps all the necessary pieces on the playing field, that’s all I need right now 

Every model still shows a possible storm but now the ridge got worse and the clipper tracked further north .

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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There seems to be a lot of consensus for a snowstorm in NB, n Maine, and eastern Quebec, starting to need retrogression to shift capture closer to s NE or LI. It will definitely be quite cold for a couple of days, lake squalls and a coating of snow in NNW flow but for a big snowfall the current signal is down east. 

The energy peak for Dec 30-31 is starting to look like a cutter and a snowstorm for parts of the Midwest.

I would keep Jan 12-14 open for consideration as timing for a really big east coast storm. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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EPS def still has a solid look for next weekend. 
 

image.thumb.png.b895165a907c03acfdd60e21c2a97d80.png
 

image.thumb.png.012c7846cd66a32f2f2c6ec5dc5a8986.png
 

image.thumb.png.2b6fddec76717dd39b45c197a9f7545d.png
 

Pretty classic Miller B look actually. The worry on that depiction is it gets going a little too late…esp for southwest areas, but if you dig that trough just a bit more then it’s moot. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS def still has a solid look for next weekend. 
 

image.thumb.png.b895165a907c03acfdd60e21c2a97d80.png
 

image.thumb.png.012c7846cd66a32f2f2c6ec5dc5a8986.png
 

image.thumb.png.2b6fddec76717dd39b45c197a9f7545d.png
 

Pretty classic Miller B look actually. The worry on that depiction is it gets going a little too late…esp for southwest areas, but if you dig that trough just a bit more then it’s moot. 

Almost a December 1981 look.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Almost a December 1981 look.

That look would def favor eastern areas. But too far out to get that granular. It could be tracking over Scooter’s head a few days from now. Signal for a storm is there at least. 
 

Hopefully that first shortwave continues to be deemphasized which will put more focus on the 12/22 system. 

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