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Wednesday NY State Screamer 12/11.


CoastalWx
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29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

how’s it look John for us inland peeps here in CT. 

I think lowest of elevations 40-45 mph, 500 to 1,000' 45-50 (low grade risk 50+); 1,000+ ft 50+ mph; coastal plain (especially eastern) 60+.   

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Strong to Damaging Winds...

A very powerful southerly LLJ will develop, peaking about 5
standard deviations above normal. Winds at 925 mb peak about
60-80 kt, which is not that common this time of year. Converted
the High Wind Watches to High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories.
The southerly wind direction complicates things greatly.
Questions remain on the depth of the mixed layer farther inland,
as well as the impact of friction knocking down wind speeds as
well. Have the greatest confidence in high winds across southern
RI into eastern MA, then north along the immediate east coast of
MA. Much of the rest of southern New England converted to Wind
Advisories. Further tweaks to headlines may come with later
forecasts.
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GYX has been emphatic that, given current info, this event won't be a repeat of last December 17-18.

From GYX AFD
PWATs of 1.25-1.4" across the region indicate ample moisture moves

into the region, with dewpoints making it into the 50s by the end of

the day. These PWATs and dewpoints rival the December 18th

flood last year. Despite this comparison, this flood will NOT

have the severity of December 2023. This is due to a less

favorable upslope enhancement pattern, in addition to the more

progressive nature of the upcoming storm meaning the storm will

likely move much quicker through New England than what was seen

on December 18th last year. For more details, please read the

`Hydrology` section.


from ‘Hydrology’

Questions have been raised about

this event in comparison to last December. This flood will NOT

have the severity of December 2023. There is more storage for

runoff with low stream levels across most of the region, the

storm will be more progressive, and the snowmelt from the

mountains will be less.

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6 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

That's because even after all these years nobody can still seem to grasp the lines themselves don't produce big wind...it is always along the leading edge of the torrential rain. You get a massive gust of wind then a brief lull of quietness then it pours cats and buckets which quickly stabilizes the atmosphere. 

I would argue the best gusts often come post frontal in the dry slot

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9 hours ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Maybe they're not ready?

I'm on the road a lot for work, I've seen plenty of northbound generators but not the rows of line trucks... either their weather people have said don't spend the money or they're actually not ready. Both are very likely knowing CMP lol

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30.6F  Light freezing rain.  The driveway is a sheet of black ice.  I got 3.75" of snow last night and the pack is now around 9".  Will the warm air get up here?  Usually CAD wins at my location.  I'm guessing a couple of hours of warmth, maybe the best right after fropa.

How much of my pack will be left?  I guess it depends if the tropical air gets in here or not.  

pack.jpg

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30 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

30.6F  Light freezing rain.  The driveway is a sheet of black ice.  I got 3.75" of snow last night and the pack is now around 9".  Will the warm air get up here?  Usually CAD wins at my location.  I'm guessing a couple of hours of warmth, maybe the best right after fropa.

How much of my pack will be left?  I guess it depends if the tropical air gets in here or not.  

pack.jpg

You'll probably end with an ice pack, probably last to April as a base.

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