Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Chimoss
    Newest Member
    Chimoss
    Joined

Wednesday NY State Screamer 12/11.


CoastalWx
 Share

Recommended Posts

The best winds will probably be from along 91 to Springfield and then north and east. Hi-res guidance is pretty impressive looking with the forced line, you could almost argue that should a line organize, it may not be that low topped. This would probably impact central Connecticut up to about Hartford and then points northeast and east from there. Remember...the line itself will not contain wind, it would be along the leading edge or just ahead of it. Big question though is with so much rain out ahead of it, will it be too stable to maximize gust potential? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The Cape is going to get smoked. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 60-70 mph gusts there during the evening. 

May need to watch for a shallow inversion down there with such a warm airmass and winds off the water. Should be windy regardless but may take some off the top end potential 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, wx2fish said:

May need to watch for a shallow inversion down there with such a warm airmass and winds off the water. Should be windy regardless but may take some off the top end potential 

It probably will. Seems like best gusts usually just inland. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

May need to watch for a shallow inversion down there with such a warm airmass and winds off the water. Should be windy regardless but may take some off the top end potential 

Yeah...would probably have to go a bit inland...like interior southeast Mass? a bit away from the water. Looks like the 12z GFS did tick a few degrees warmer too...more in the 60-62F range versus 58-61F...subtle but could be a big difference maker. 

The other thing too with those eastern areas is they may be a bit more "unstable" with the heavier rain west. So they could get greater impact from that line as it moves east. Some decent signals the line could intensify as it progresses east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah...would probably have to go a bit inland...like interior southeast Mass? a bit away from the water. Looks like the 12z GFS did tick a few degrees warmer too...more in the 60-62F range versus 58-61F...subtle but could be a big difference maker. 

The other thing too with those eastern areas is they may be a bit more "unstable" with the heavier rain west. So they could get greater impact from that line as it moves east. Some decent signals the line could intensify as it progresses east.

Yeah and like Scott posted yesterday it would be nice to get some breaks in the showers across Eastern areas to let things mix a little better ahead of the squall line. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The big rips across the area are not gonna be with the line. They’ll be in the hours ahead of the line. Probably like a 3-5 hour window where they ramp up quickly and it’s only light rain . You’ll see all kinds of damage ahead of the approach of the line, Then a bunch of meh posts with the line . That’s how these always work .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The big rips across the area are not gonna be with the line. They’ll be in hours ahead of the line. Probably like a 3-5 hour window where they ramp up quickly and it’s only light rain . You’ll see all kinds of damage ahead of the approach of the line, Then a bunch of meh posts with the line . That’s how these always work .

That's because even after all these years nobody can still seem to grasp the lines themselves don't produce big wind...it is always along the leading edge of the torrential rain. You get a massive gust of wind then a brief lull of quietness then it pours cats and buckets which quickly stabilizes the atmosphere. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I think the Sox are lucky they didn't wind up with Soto. These long contracts worth huge money never seem to work out.

Agreed.  He has some of the same long-term downsides as Raffy.  Soto is a significantly better hitter, especially OBP, but both are BN on defense now and likely headed for DH in a few years.  However, 15 years is riskier than 11 and RF at the Stadium plays a lot easier than 3rd base.  Also, Judge at center helps Soto whether the latter is in RF or LF, while Sox SS aren't covering much for Devers.

GYX discussion has the foothills as the most vulnerable to flooding, with RA plus melt progged at 3-5".  It helps that fall was dry; last year's flooding was primed by a 2-3" RA one week before the big dog. 

That's because even after all these years nobody can still seem to grasp the lines themselves don't produce big wind...it is always along the leading edge of the torrential rain. You get a massive gust of wind then a brief lull of quietness then it pours cats and buckets which quickly stabilizes the atmosphere. 

Apparently, 12/18/23 didn't follow the script here.  Our massive gusts lasted 4 hours and began several hours after the heavy rain arrived.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Same thing with summer time squall lines...unless you have such an intense line that involves producing a microburst or macroburst or a derecho...the strongest winds are going to be either along the gust front or right at the onset of the heaviest rain. But because there is more instability to work with and stronger downward transfer of momentum you can fluctuate with some very strong gusts while as a setup like this you're more than likely to go calm quickly due to stability. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The big rips across the area are not gonna be with the line. They’ll be in the hours ahead of the line. Probably like a 3-5 hour window where they ramp up quickly and it’s only light rain . You’ll see all kinds of damage ahead of the approach of the line, Then a bunch of meh posts with the line . That’s how these always work .

Looks like elevations of 84 up to ORH Jack you with the rain

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So the winds will only be for about a few minutes…lol. 

Well just talking about *if* there is anything with a forced line. That would probably be OUR (not talking about eastern sections) BEST chance for maximum wind gust potential. I see tomorrow being windy due to sustained winds but we may struggle to get impressive gusts (above 40-45) because of how much rain there will be which stabilizes things. 

Just inland away from the immediate shoreline would do better. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ok I’m supposed to go to Worcester for a noon meeting and a holiday party early afternoon.  I’m thinking I could probably stay ahead of damaging winds if I leave by 3 to return home?

I think you'll be fine. Not like a cat 3 is making an approach lol.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...