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Wednesday NY State Screamer 12/11.


CoastalWx
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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The following products needs to be abolished from existence: 

1. Supercell composite parameter, this includes these ridiculous accumulated supercell composite energy or whatever they're called maps I've seen floated around

2. Significant tornado parameter 

3. Snow maps 

4. wind maps 

Forgot one

5. The potential hazard type box on the SHARPpy soundings like you get on COD. 

"PDS tornado", "TORNADO", "WEAK TORNADO", "SEVERE", "MARGINAL SEVERE", 

The twitter severe community has a field day with this stuff

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Likely an under-performer (at least for CT)... Regardless, you still have to be wary of these setups and just not dismiss their potential because of past failures.  It does bother me that so many posters love to bash the NWS, and others, when these types of events fail.  They always carry a high degree of uncertainty, and at least in the private sector, those uncertainties are conveyed to the client.  But the client and in the case of the NWS, the public, have to be made aware of the high-end risk, were the setup to verify.  Just dismissing a potential disruptive wind event because they may have failed in the past is not the answer.  Just like a snow forecast, if the biggest numbers in the range don't verify, the public thinks it was a failed forecast.  I don't have time to read every AFD, but the I did note confidence levels were discussed and as one might expect there was concern about error potential.  Like the NWS snow forecast graphics that state low-end amounts, expected amounts and then high-end amount, I usually state the possible range of max wind gusts to my clients during conference calls...   Many want to know what the high-end risk levels are, even though they will mostly make decisions using the most likely gusts values.  I think it is also imperative to note to the public that most damaging wind events in SNE are scattered events; rarely are they widespread.  You can have a few trees smash into houses across the state or a car or two get crushed, but that is still only a "scattered" event.  The problem is there is no way to forecast the specific town or street that will be impacted.  So, we end up with a generic forecast that implies widespread issues but is almost never widespread.  As Wiz chatted about earlier, there is a lot of communication issues in play, and nowcast trends need to be posted on a regular basis to keep the general public up to speed as you move into the threat period.   Folks on this forum are constantly monitoring the trends and can often see where things are heading.  But the vast majority of the public does not have the time or ability to assess weather data trends.   I know the NWS is overwhelmed on days like this, but a county-by-county storm trends update product (short and concise; ex. wind threat decreasing for county X, or wind threat still high for county Y) that could scroll across the bottom of the tv set or be read by any radio announcer to allow the latest trends to be heard by the public would be great. 

Today we thought if we warmed into the 60's, we would be in trouble... But not the case this time around given the eastward trend of the lvl jet.

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33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Usually these always perform on high wind events. This was a rare fail . Nothing happening at all currently 

In Greenfield forecast temps failed by 10+ degrees and wind by a huge margin.  Even the rain was a good .5" less than forecast.  Pedestrian on all fronts, happens sometimes. 

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20 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Likely an under-performer (at least for CT)... Regardless, you still have to be wary of these setups and just not dismiss their potential because of past failures.  It does bother me that so many posters love to bash the NWS, and others, when these types of events fail.  They always carry a high degree of uncertainty, and at least in the private sector, those uncertainties are conveyed to the client.  But the client and in the case of the NWS, the public, have to be made aware of the high-end risk, were the setup to verify.  Just dismissing a potential disruptive wind event because they may have failed in the past is not the answer.  Just like a snow forecast, if the biggest numbers in the range don't verify, the public thinks it was a failed forecast.  I don't have time to read every AFD, but the I did note confidence levels were discussed and as one might expect there was concern about error potential.  Like the NWS snow forecast graphics that state low-end amounts, expected amounts and then high-end amount, I usually state the possible range of max wind gusts to my clients during conference calls...   Many want to know what the high-end risk levels are, even though they will mostly make decisions using the most likely gusts values.  I think it is also imperative to note to the public that most damaging wind events in SNE are scattered events; rarely are they widespread.  You can have a few trees smash into houses across the state or a car or two get crushed, but that is still only a "scattered" event.  The problem is there is no way to forecast the specific town or street that will be impacted.  So, we end up with a generic forecast that implies widespread issues but is almost never widespread.  As Wiz chatted about earlier, there is a lot of communication issues in play, and nowcast trends need to be posted on a regular basis to keep the general public up to speed as you move into the threat period.   Folks on this forum are constantly monitoring the trends and can often see where things are heading.  But the vast majority of the public does not have the time or ability to assess weather data trends.   I know the NWS is overwhelmed on days like this, but a county-by-county storm trends update product (short and concise; ex. wind threat decreasing for county X, or wind threat still high for county Y) that could scroll across the bottom of the tv set or be read by any radio announcer to allow the latest trends to be heard by the public would be great. 

Today we thought if we warmed into the 60's, we would be in trouble... But not the case this time around given the eastward trend of the lvl jet.

Terrific post. 

There is alot to be desired on how weather events are communicated but when it comes to relaying uncertainty, it's a whole new level of challenge. 

When it comes to most of our weather events (maybe this can apply across the country too) they aren't textbook setups. Most of our winter weather events are textbook KU's, most of our severe weather events aren't associated with EML's, and with our synoptic rainfall events...there is just too much with local terrain that influences flooding. 

I'm sure this is done behind the scenes but when forecasting these type of events and assessing the potential, just like you said, you can't dismiss because of past failures but you want to understand why the events that failed did and why the ones that produced ended up producing. But this is easier said than done because these setups aren't that textbook and more times than not they come down to how things evolve in the mesoscale. 

 

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Pedestrian on all fronts, happens all the time. 

Sure does. 

What a fuddy duddy. Was actually getting excited cuz I'm at elevation. 

In leominster it was 40 but up here 10 miles west it's 55. Wild. 

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