amarshall Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 We've had a couple freight trains now. I'd say tickling 50. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 32.2°. The temperature is going the wrong way, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The following products needs to be abolished from existence: 1. Supercell composite parameter, this includes these ridiculous accumulated supercell composite energy or whatever they're called maps I've seen floated around 2. Significant tornado parameter 3. Snow maps 4. wind maps Forgot one 5. The potential hazard type box on the SHARPpy soundings like you get on COD. "PDS tornado", "TORNADO", "WEAK TORNADO", "SEVERE", "MARGINAL SEVERE", The twitter severe community has a field day with this stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 1.85” here so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Meh storm overall here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Meh storm overall here Just shocking. Pedestrian rain in the valley, has not warmed above 38F and I'm assuming no wind gusts to speak of here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcap77 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Cold has been holding on here. Peaked at 32.9 and now down to 32.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gusting good now. I’d say over 45 now. Looks like it’s going to crank down towards Marshfield-TAN-EWB on east. 78 mph at Blue Hill 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I guess only hope is Wiz squalline which there doesn’t seem much hope. Letdown for sure for me . Not really even windy anymore I'm not sure we have even gusted above 5 mph here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm not sure we have even gusted above 5 mph here. Usually these always perform on high wind events. This was a rare fail . Nothing happening at all currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 looks like we scoured out the cold air on our little hill. one of the disadvantages of living hillside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 I'm not sure we have even gusted above 5 mph here. I haven't Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Likely an under-performer (at least for CT)... Regardless, you still have to be wary of these setups and just not dismiss their potential because of past failures. It does bother me that so many posters love to bash the NWS, and others, when these types of events fail. They always carry a high degree of uncertainty, and at least in the private sector, those uncertainties are conveyed to the client. But the client and in the case of the NWS, the public, have to be made aware of the high-end risk, were the setup to verify. Just dismissing a potential disruptive wind event because they may have failed in the past is not the answer. Just like a snow forecast, if the biggest numbers in the range don't verify, the public thinks it was a failed forecast. I don't have time to read every AFD, but the I did note confidence levels were discussed and as one might expect there was concern about error potential. Like the NWS snow forecast graphics that state low-end amounts, expected amounts and then high-end amount, I usually state the possible range of max wind gusts to my clients during conference calls... Many want to know what the high-end risk levels are, even though they will mostly make decisions using the most likely gusts values. I think it is also imperative to note to the public that most damaging wind events in SNE are scattered events; rarely are they widespread. You can have a few trees smash into houses across the state or a car or two get crushed, but that is still only a "scattered" event. The problem is there is no way to forecast the specific town or street that will be impacted. So, we end up with a generic forecast that implies widespread issues but is almost never widespread. As Wiz chatted about earlier, there is a lot of communication issues in play, and nowcast trends need to be posted on a regular basis to keep the general public up to speed as you move into the threat period. Folks on this forum are constantly monitoring the trends and can often see where things are heading. But the vast majority of the public does not have the time or ability to assess weather data trends. I know the NWS is overwhelmed on days like this, but a county-by-county storm trends update product (short and concise; ex. wind threat decreasing for county X, or wind threat still high for county Y) that could scroll across the bottom of the tv set or be read by any radio announcer to allow the latest trends to be heard by the public would be great. Today we thought if we warmed into the 60's, we would be in trouble... But not the case this time around given the eastward trend of the lvl jet. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Never underestimate the CAD over interior CNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Never underestimate the CAD over interior CNE. 33-34 here. Will be interesting to see if we get a temperature spike and how long it lasts. Meanwhile, a whole lot of water soaking into the snow pack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Looking at radar, seems like RI and SE MA are the only ones who are going to get anything interesting this evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 In 15 mins, Went from 32.5 to 52.3°F. 5 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Usually these always perform on high wind events. This was a rare fail . Nothing happening at all currently In Greenfield forecast temps failed by 10+ degrees and wind by a huge margin. Even the rain was a good .5" less than forecast. Pedestrian on all fronts, happens sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 20 minutes ago, FXWX said: Likely an under-performer (at least for CT)... Regardless, you still have to be wary of these setups and just not dismiss their potential because of past failures. It does bother me that so many posters love to bash the NWS, and others, when these types of events fail. They always carry a high degree of uncertainty, and at least in the private sector, those uncertainties are conveyed to the client. But the client and in the case of the NWS, the public, have to be made aware of the high-end risk, were the setup to verify. Just dismissing a potential disruptive wind event because they may have failed in the past is not the answer. Just like a snow forecast, if the biggest numbers in the range don't verify, the public thinks it was a failed forecast. I don't have time to read every AFD, but the I did note confidence levels were discussed and as one might expect there was concern about error potential. Like the NWS snow forecast graphics that state low-end amounts, expected amounts and then high-end amount, I usually state the possible range of max wind gusts to my clients during conference calls... Many want to know what the high-end risk levels are, even though they will mostly make decisions using the most likely gusts values. I think it is also imperative to note to the public that most damaging wind events in SNE are scattered events; rarely are they widespread. You can have a few trees smash into houses across the state or a car or two get crushed, but that is still only a "scattered" event. The problem is there is no way to forecast the specific town or street that will be impacted. So, we end up with a generic forecast that implies widespread issues but is almost never widespread. As Wiz chatted about earlier, there is a lot of communication issues in play, and nowcast trends need to be posted on a regular basis to keep the general public up to speed as you move into the threat period. Folks on this forum are constantly monitoring the trends and can often see where things are heading. But the vast majority of the public does not have the time or ability to assess weather data trends. I know the NWS is overwhelmed on days like this, but a county-by-county storm trends update product (short and concise; ex. wind threat decreasing for county X, or wind threat still high for county Y) that could scroll across the bottom of the tv set or be read by any radio announcer to allow the latest trends to be heard by the public would be great. Today we thought if we warmed into the 60's, we would be in trouble... But not the case this time around given the eastward trend of the lvl jet. Terrific post. There is alot to be desired on how weather events are communicated but when it comes to relaying uncertainty, it's a whole new level of challenge. When it comes to most of our weather events (maybe this can apply across the country too) they aren't textbook setups. Most of our winter weather events are textbook KU's, most of our severe weather events aren't associated with EML's, and with our synoptic rainfall events...there is just too much with local terrain that influences flooding. I'm sure this is done behind the scenes but when forecasting these type of events and assessing the potential, just like you said, you can't dismiss because of past failures but you want to understand why the events that failed did and why the ones that produced ended up producing. But this is easier said than done because these setups aren't that textbook and more times than not they come down to how things evolve in the mesoscale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Pedestrian on all fronts, happens all the time. Sure does. What a fuddy duddy. Was actually getting excited cuz I'm at elevation. In leominster it was 40 but up here 10 miles west it's 55. Wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 4 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said: Sure does. What a fuddy duddy. Was actually getting excited cuz I'm at elevation. In leominster it was 40 but up here 10 miles west it's 55. Wild. Any wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 I was in a Zoom meeting from 3-5pm and missed this happening in real time. Temps did end up jumping real quick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11 Author Share Posted December 11 Radar velocity shows it’s about to blow in srn RI and adjacent SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 21 minutes ago, dryslot said: In 15 mins, Went from 32.5 to 52.3°F. Same thing here this morning, went from the 30s to high 50s in no time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Rotting at 34 here. Any warmth will be short lived. This is best case scenario and we will survive with a pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Radar velocity shows it’s about to blow in srn RI and adjacent SE MA. Wind has definitely picked up after a brief lull in East Greenwich. Strongest winds look to miss just to the SE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Radar velocity shows it’s about to blow in srn RI and adjacent SE MA.Very loud/windy here out ahead of that line. Power has flickered a few times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 8 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: Rotting at 34 here. Any warmth will be short lived. This is best case scenario and we will survive with a pack. Temps at 4 am suppose to be back in the low 30's, So yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 So far a gust to 18mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Any wind? Not anything notable. Probably be better with the CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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