CoastalWx Posted December 11 Author Share Posted December 11 56 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Another massive Lake event 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I agree in part. I think how we communicate wx definitely needs to continue evolving. A lot of people still think in a deterministic way rather than probabilistic. So if I’m a layperson and I read a NWS warning I’m going to (maybe) act on what’s in front of me. However, downplaying because of uncertainty or prior history is problematic too. You want people to take reasonable actions to protect themselves. It doesn’t need to be on the verge of disastrous to be bad. 80-90mph winds are an order of magnitude worse and would be catastrophic if widespread. But there would be a hesitation to say that. I don’t have an answer but I think it’s far more nuanced. The communication definitely needs to involve and I think it just starts within the industry itself. The NWS relies heavily on local media and private sector to communication risks and to do so in a manner that is understandable to the public. For example, lets use the SPC Convective Outlook and probabilities...the public doesn't know what any of that means. So those on TV, in the media, private sector is going to communicate that information so the public can understand it. The second aspect of the communication is from the field to the public. One of my professors (who used to do TV as well) used to say something that really stuck with me. He really meant this more for TV (since that's what he did but I think it could apply all around). He would say when you're on TV you develop a following and an audience. People are watching you (the same people) day in and day out and are planning their days based on what you say. With that, the words you use...they start to develop meaning and people will start correlating those words. Certain words have strong meanings and if those words get overused, they start to lose their meaning and lose their impact. For example, if you say "oh wow it is going to be a beautiful day today". Beautiful is a strong word. But if you're using beautiful when its Sunny and say 50 and then again when its Sunny and 75 or Sunny and 85...that's a wide difference in how people would prepare. But if you save that word and use it for a specific say threshold...when you do use it...people will know right away what you mean. There is no guessing. Let's use a weather event. If you say, "we're looking at damaging winds of 50-60 mph today with downed trees, tree limbs, and power outages" that is a powerful statement, but what does that really mean? If that potential is something that is going to be more isolated or localized...that needs to be reinforced. But with these events that isn't being reinforced, so when the times come that we actually get something of that magnitude, people aren't going to be prepared because those words...that statement has lost meaning because every time that is said it's only localized impact. When communicating impactful weather events, whether its a more localized impact or widespread, that differences needs to be stressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 11 minutes ago, FXWX said: My 2-cents, since I deal with about 100 school districts here in CT... there is no consensus on what to do on days like this... A multitude of folks are involved with the decision... In some towns, the issuance of a Warning or Advisory is sufficient to cause a delay, early D or outright cancellation. Wind and flash flood events, given their highly variable nature in terms of impacts at anyone location, the decision is compounded by the fact that most of the time only a few streets are impacted, but those that could produce deadly results. Most schools will not dismiss early today, but all of them have been assessing the issue, and getting feedback from local emergency managers, police and DPW personnel. Some folks are just too uncomfortable with a worse case outcome and will dismiss early. But even that is an issue. Most bus runs take 90 minutes to 2 hours to complete... trying to time when a tree might fall is impossible. The bottom line is that these decisions are not just made willy nilly... Input comes from multiple sources and the final decision is made with those inputs in mind. We had a rotten tree bring down wires yesterday in an eastern CT district. Not weather related, but people still complained about it! I have been on conference calls and email chains for a few days now, and trust me people are trying to do the best they can knowing full well the inherent complicated nature of disruptive / dangerous weather events... Great input. This is great information and I think to the bolded...this is leading to a huge question in all of this, are people making decisions based on fear on any fallout should something happen or are people making sound, educated decisions based on the information provided? It seems too me at least, the trend has been to make these decisions based on fear of fallout versus anything else. And is that a good thing or a bad thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 When does the next round of models come out, wondering if there has been any update on where the highest winds set up? Has the east trend from yesterday continued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 56 now 58 /57 . Dewpendous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11 Author Share Posted December 11 58 now and about 25-30 in gusts. Temp rising quicker than Kevin at a Thunder From Downunder show. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 58 /57 . Dewpendous shorts on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 56 now I just shot up to 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Still 39 here...but 50s really close by 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 56 now 39. You're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: 39. You're welcome. Yeah pretty nasty day but at least we are missing the heavy rain in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11 Author Share Posted December 11 Pillaging rains on south coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 See what happens east of 91 across Connecticut in the next 1-2 hours. Getting convection (though don't see any lightning) developing south of Long Island. 925mb winds increasing to over 50 knots now with a few hundred J of MUCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 32.4°, temp thus far struggling to budge. Look to be dry-slotted here for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 26 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: shorts on? Nothing on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 58 /57 . Dewpendous WWLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: WWLT So naked.. so free.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Up to 1.03” and getting gust 15-17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Great input. This is great information and I think to the bolded...this is leading to a huge question in all of this, are people making decisions based on fear on any fallout should something happen or are people making sound, educated decisions based on the information provided? It seems too me at least, the trend has been to make these decisions based on fear of fallout versus anything else. And is that a good thing or a bad thing? For sure there is fear; with both sides of the issue... under-react and or over-react! I do wish the NWS would use more terms like "scattered" or isolated" and not just statements that give the impression the damaging winds will be widespread. I try to use qualifying words about the coverage of the disruptive or damaging impacts so folks can get a sense of how widespread or not widespread it will be, which they then can incorporate into their decisions. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: He said it was around $15,000-$18,000 to remove the two trees. What the actual fuck????? That's beyond insane. For good 3-4 man team, two trees (depending on size) is maybe a days work to cut and clear. In actual weather news, wind starting to pick up. Might take down some of my trees for free later on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 1 minute ago, FXWX said: For sure there is fear; with both sides of the issue... under-react and or over-react! I do wish the NWS would use more terms like "scattered" or isolated" and not just statements that give the impression the damaging winds will be widespread. I try to use qualifying words about the coverage of the disruptive or damaging impacts so folks can get a sense of how widespread or not widespread it will be, which they then can incorporate into their decisions. 100% agreed. And through my mini meltdown there, what I was trying to get at is this... If you have an individual who is a decision maker who is always going to hedge towards making a decision geared towards the "Worst case scenario" spectrum, then what is the point of having such an individual in place? I would think what one would want in a decision maker is someone who is going to make a sound, educated decision and someone that you would trust their judgement to make the best decision as possible when uncertainty is on the table. But if its always "worst case scenario", doesn't that defeat the purpose of having someone like that in place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
met_fan Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: With the price nowadays to get trees cut...it's probably better to look for something without Our neighbor right now got two trees cut down I think it was last spring or the spring before...but he did it after that one ice event we got where a limb came down and damaged the fence. He said it was around $15,000-$18,000 to remove the two trees. Unfortunately though, we would be moving within the Valley. West Hartford is an area of discussion which I would love because I grew up there but the property taxes are disgusting. If you can afford a house in West Hartford, are you really worried about the price of taking down some trees? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Yup that was something which added into the coast for our neighbor. they were two huge pine trees and had to get some massive crane thing to cut the trees in segments from top down and then lift them onto a truck. They even had to close down a portion of the road to do it. That's still an insane price. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Winds really picked up last 15-20 minutes. Couple gusts 35-40 mph in last couple minutes . You can hear the LLJ now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Winds really picked up last 15-20 minutes. Couple gusts 35-40 mph in last couple minutes . You can the LLJ now Yep, a couple of good low roars outside in the past 10 minutes. Should be interesting when they start getting louder and longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 2 minutes ago, met_fan said: If you can afford a house in West Hartford, are you really worried about the price of taking down some trees? Touche 2 minutes ago, metagraphica said: That's still an insane price. Yeah my jaw dropped when he said that. I was able to watch the whole process happen right outside my window. It didn't seem that complicated, they had a machine which like cut the tree into segments and after each segment was cut some device just lifted it (but over the neighbors house...that was uneasy to watch) into the truck. I think it took a whole couple hours per tree but I believe they did two days of work (they cut the stumps out the second day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 1 minute ago, metagraphica said: Yep, a couple of good low roars outside in the past 10 minutes. Should be interesting when they start getting louder and longer. We love it loud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Not expecting much back here and in western CT, but it definitely could be gusty out in eastern CT on east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11 Author Share Posted December 11 59.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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