Wednesday NY State Screamer 12/11.

[Snowcrazed71]

47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The entire state of CT will have gusts 50+. That has been locked for days 

I'm glad my brother and I got out the Saturday after Thanksgiving and took down a lot of big limbs and medium sized trees. God help me with some of the real big ones that I couldn't do on my own. I just hope they don't get taken down by the winds and fall in my house. 

With that said, it'd be cool to see these winds materialize.

[WxWatcher007]

This is the definition of useless cold

[weathafella]

So BOS rotting at 39 while I’m 51-about 10 miles away.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

1) Relative to the over 160 school districts in CT these are a handful

2) Some of these are in places with a high wind warning

3) They’re early dismissals, so it’s not like the kids aren’t in school for at least part of the day

I usually don’t take a stance on this stuff, but I don’t get the pearl clutching on some districts trying to get kids home before a bad storm gets bad. Schools aren’t getting sued the way people here think they are. 

I mean if there is a trend to start closing schools or dismiss school early for weather events, pretty soon nobody will be in school. If we're talking about the potential for a serious, life threatening event, then absolutely, close schools. I guess maybe it's hard to fully blame those making these decisions...they're making decisions based on what they're being presented and weather is flat out hyped. 

The other thing too with early dismissals is they're pointless. Just cancel the day. I remember in school when we were having an early dismissal, nobody was paying attention. Classes were shortened, teachers had to rush to get through material...nobody is winning in those situations. It's a disservice to the teachers and its a disservice to the students. 

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

did they at least offer the remote learning? That's what they did up here, but I personally think the remote learning, especially for a one-off day like this is a waste of time. just give them the day off.

I can't speak on the remote learning since I have zero experience with it (unless you want to count online classes  ) but I feel like you have to be extremely disciplined to handle remote learning and how many middle/high school students fit that boat?

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm glad my brother and I got out the Saturday after Thanksgiving and took down a lot of big limbs and medium sized trees. God help me with some of the real big ones that I couldn't do on my own. I just hope they don't get taken down by the winds and fall in my house. 

With that said, it'd be cool to see these winds materialize.

My girlfriend and I are in the very beginning process of looking to buy a house. When she asked me what are some of the "musts" I am looking for in a house...my #1 response was "no trees around the perimeter of the house". There could be trees on the property but nothing that could fall onto the house.

[wxeyeNH]

32.9  -RA  I can ice skate on my driveway!  The salt water melting off my car is keeping the lower part ice free.

[ma blizzard]

36.3/36, 0.81"

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

My girlfriend and I are in the very beginning process of looking to buy a house. When she asked me what are some of the "musts" I am looking for in a house...my #1 response was "no trees around the perimeter of the house". There could be trees on the property but nothing that could fall onto the house.

Lol. You can always cut those down. I did when we bought this house in 2021. First week here had 5 biggies cut. The number 1 thing to look for is obviously a snowy location…so don’t shop in the valley.

[Damage In Tolland]

Winds just now starting to freshen out of the SSE

[weatherwiz]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lol. You can always cut those down. I did when we bought this house in 2021. First week here had 5 biggies cut. The number 1 thing to look for is obviously a snowy location…so don’t shop in the valley.

With the price nowadays to get trees cut...it's probably better to look for something without

Our neighbor right now got two trees cut down I think it was last spring or the spring before...but he did it after that one ice event we got where a limb came down and damaged the fence. 

He said it was around $15,000-$18,000 to remove the two trees. 

Unfortunately though, we would be moving within the Valley. West Hartford is an area of discussion which I would love because I grew up there but the property taxes are disgusting. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

With the price nowadays to get trees cut...it's probably better to look for something without

Our neighbor right now got two trees cut down I think it was last spring or the spring before...but he did it after that one ice event we got where a limb came down and damaged the fence. 

He said it was around $15,000-$18,000 to remove the two trees. 

Unfortunately though, we would be moving within the Valley. West Hartford is an area of discussion which I would love because I grew up there but the property taxes are disgusting. 

Prices right now are disgusting too...LOL.  I can't believe what people pay around here and most places go for over asking.

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I mean if there is a trend to start closing schools or dismiss school early for weather events, pretty soon nobody will be in school. If we're talking about the potential for a serious, life threatening event, then absolutely, close schools. I guess maybe it's hard to fully blame those making these decisions...they're making decisions based on what they're being presented and weather is flat out hyped. 

The other thing too with early dismissals is they're pointless. Just cancel the day. I remember in school when we were having an early dismissal, nobody was paying attention. Classes were shortened, teachers had to rush to get through material...nobody is winning in those situations. It's a disservice to the teachers and its a disservice to the students. 

I can't speak on the remote learning since I have zero experience with it (unless you want to count online classes  ) but I feel like you have to be extremely disciplined to handle remote learning and how many middle/high school students fit that boat?

The devil’s always in the details though. Serious means different things to different people. If the NWS puts you in a HWW that says

IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down numerous tree limbs, and
  scattered trees and power lines. Power outages are likely. Travel
  will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

What are you supposed to do when you’re responsible for the safety of your students and staff? Also, I don’t think the early dismissal days are pointless, but I’m not well versed enough to say what a half day looks like. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

With the price nowadays to get trees cut...it's probably better to look for something without

Our neighbor right now got two trees cut down I think it was last spring or the spring before...but he did it after that one ice event we got where a limb came down and damaged the fence. 

He said it was around $15,000-$18,000 to remove the two trees. 

Unfortunately though, we would be moving within the Valley. West Hartford is an area of discussion which I would love because I grew up there but the property taxes are disgusting. 

Stop. It doesn’t cost that much to cut trees down unless they’re taller than MT Washington. Your neighbor lied…

Ken would do it for a tick less. 

[Great Snow 1717]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I mean if there is a trend to start closing schools or dismiss school early for weather events, pretty soon nobody will be in school. If we're talking about the potential for a serious, life threatening event, then absolutely, close schools. I guess maybe it's hard to fully blame those making these decisions...they're making decisions based on what they're being presented and weather is flat out hyped. 

The other thing too with early dismissals is they're pointless. Just cancel the day. I remember in school when we were having an early dismissal, nobody was paying attention. Classes were shortened, teachers had to rush to get through material...nobody is winning in those situations. It's a disservice to the teachers and its a disservice to the students. 

I can't speak on the remote learning since I have zero experience with it (unless you want to count online classes  ) but I feel like you have to be extremely disciplined to handle remote learning and how many middle/high school students fit that boat?

Correct!!

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Stop. It doesn’t cost that much to cut trees down unless they’re taller than MT Washington. Your neighbor lied…

Depending on the size, it could easily be $5k per tree.  But when buying a house you could try to negotiate that part and have the sellers do it.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The devil’s always in the details though. Serious means different things to different people. If the NWS puts you in a HWW that says

IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down numerous tree limbs, and
  scattered trees and power lines. Power outages are likely. Travel
  will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

What are you supposed to do when you’re responsible for the safety of your students and staff? Also, I don’t think the early dismissal days are pointless, but I’m not well versed enough to say what a half day looks like. 

That type of wording is just not necessary. This is exactly why the public loses confidence in weather forecasting. Events that shouldn't be hyped up are being hyped up and events which should be "hyped" up aren't. We have had dozens upon dozens of these type of setups over the last several decades. Sure there will be some downed limbs here and there and some power outages but most people aren't seeing that. 

Save this type of wording for something that is extreme and dire. If you're using wording like that for the potential of 50-60 mph wind gusts what the hell is going to be used if we ever get a situation of widespread 80-90 mph wind gusts? Are we just going to end up evacuating the entire state? shutting everything down? 

Look at the past few winters, how many times 3-4 days out media is going bonkers with certain winter events and snow maps start flying and then as we get closer everyone is cutting back? Or last February...the winter storm watches to advisories only for more snow to fall than what was even being forecast. Or what about the August flooding? There have been countless weather events overplayed and then countless weather events which were underplayed and turned impactful. We just can't keep blaming models for that. 

How weather is communicated to the pubic needs to be worked on and there needs to be better training for those in public safety of how to respond and make decisions. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I had 5 biggies cut and stumps grinded for $4500. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Depending on the size, it could easily be $5k per tree.  But when buying a house you could try to negotiate that part and have the sellers do it.

In today's hot market sellers likely aren't going to agree to that...

[Modfan2]

.80” so far and temp up 10 degrees in the last hour, now 51F

[ineedsnow]

41 here 51 in athol pretty big difference 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I had 5 biggies cut and stumps grinded for $4500. 

The size of the tree is only part of the cost estimate.  The complexity/difficulty of the job and the equipment that is needed for the job can easily add thousands of dollars onto the cost for the tree removal.

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

In today's hot market sellers likely aren't going to agree to that...

.0000000000000001  percent chance of a seller agreeing to pay for tree removal......

[tamarack]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Stop. It doesn’t cost that much to cut trees down unless they’re taller than MT Washington. Your neighbor lied…

Ken would do it for a tick less. 

We paid $1,150 last May to have an arborist safely cut a 70' tall, 20" diameter rotten-centered basswood with a heavy lean toward our house.  The stump is 20' from the back porch and the 3/4 cord of low heat value wood went thru the stove in Oct-Nov.

Still lightly glazed twigs but I think it's plain RA now.

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Stop. It doesn’t cost that much to cut trees down unless they’re taller than MT Washington. Your neighbor lied…

Ken would do it for a tick less. 

Idk my neighbor paid 6800 for one..they  had a crane come in and had to lift it over the house because that was the only way.. I guess it all depends on how hard of a job and insurance risk 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The size of the tree is only part of the cost estimate.  The complexity/difficulty of the job and the equipment that is needed for the job can easily add thousands of dollars onto the cost for the tree removal.

Yup that was something which added into the coast for our neighbor. they were two huge pine trees and had to get some massive crane thing to cut the trees in segments from top down and then lift them onto a truck. They even had to close down a portion of the road to do it. 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Yup that was something which added into the coast for our neighbor. they were two huge pine trees and had to get some massive crane thing to cut the trees in segments from top down and then lift them onto a truck. They even had to close down a portion of the road to do it. 

..that type of tree removal can easily cost 10K or more...

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That type of wording is just not necessary. This is exactly why the public loses confidence in weather forecasting. Events that shouldn't be hyped up are being hyped up and events which should be "hyped" up aren't. We have had dozens upon dozens of these type of setups over the last several decades. Sure there will be some downed limbs here and there and some power outages but most people aren't seeing that. 

Save this type of wording for something that is extreme and dire. If you're using wording like that for the potential of 50-60 mph wind gusts what the hell is going to be used if we ever get a situation of widespread 80-90 mph wind gusts? Are we just going to end up evacuating the entire state? shutting everything down? 

Look at the past few winters, how many times 3-4 days out media is going bonkers with certain winter events and snow maps start flying and then as we get closer everyone is cutting back? Or last February...the winter storm watches to advisories only for more snow to fall than what was even being forecast. Or what about the August flooding? There have been countless weather events overplayed and then countless weather events which were underplayed and turned impactful. We just can't keep blaming models for that. 

How weather is communicated to the pubic needs to be worked on and there needs to be better training for those in public safety of how to respond and make decisions. 

I agree in part. I think how we communicate wx definitely needs to continue evolving. A lot of people still think in a deterministic way rather than probabilistic. So if I’m a layperson and I read a NWS warning I’m going to (maybe) act on what’s in front of me. 

However, downplaying because of uncertainty or prior history is problematic too.  You want people to take reasonable actions to protect themselves. It doesn’t need to be on the verge of disastrous to be bad.

80-90mph winds are an order of magnitude worse and would be catastrophic if widespread. But there would be a hesitation to say that.

I don’t have an answer but I think it’s far more nuanced. 

[WxWatcher007]

Anyway sorry for derailing mods. Been raining consistently here. Still sub 40 and at .53 on the day .60 total.

[FXWX]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I mean if there is a trend to start closing schools or dismiss school early for weather events, pretty soon nobody will be in school. If we're talking about the potential for a serious, life threatening event, then absolutely, close schools. I guess maybe it's hard to fully blame those making these decisions...they're making decisions based on what they're being presented and weather is flat out hyped. 

The other thing too with early dismissals is they're pointless. Just cancel the day. I remember in school when we were having an early dismissal, nobody was paying attention. Classes were shortened, teachers had to rush to get through material...nobody is winning in those situations. It's a disservice to the teachers and its a disservice to the students. 

I can't speak on the remote learning since I have zero experience with it (unless you want to count online classes  ) but I feel like you have to be extremely disciplined to handle remote learning and how many middle/high school students fit that boat?

My 2-cents, since I deal with about 100 school districts here in CT... there is no consensus on what to do on days like this... A multitude of folks are involved with the decision... In some towns, the issuance of a Warning or Advisory is sufficient to cause a delay, early D or outright cancellation.   Wind and flash flood events, given their highly variable nature in terms of impacts at anyone location, the decision is compounded by the fact that most of the time only a few streets are impacted, but those that could produce deadly results.  Most schools will not dismiss early today, but all of them have been assessing the issue, and getting feedback from local emergency managers, police and DPW personnel.  Some folks are just too uncomfortable with a worse case outcome and will dismiss early.  But even that is an issue.  Most bus runs take 90 minutes to 2 hours to complete... trying to time when a tree might fall is impossible.  The bottom line is that these decisions are not just made willy nilly...  Input comes from multiple sources and the final decision is made with those inputs in mind.  We had a rotten tree bring down wires yesterday in an eastern CT district.  Not weather related, but people still complained about it!  I have been on conference calls and email chains for a few days now, and trust me people are trying to do the best they can knowing full well the inherent complicated nature of disruptive / dangerous weather events...

[Damage In Tolland]

Fog just lifted and winds steadily picking up . Up to 56