CoastalWx Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Another multi-facet December cutter with strong winds and potential flooding from rain and melting snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Another multi-facet December cutter with strong winds and potential flooding from rain and melting snow. We want every tree downed 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam is violent I scream, you scream, we scream together? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Going to be one heck of a forced line with wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Peak winds at: BOS ORH CON BDL PVD Go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Peak winds at: BOS 48kt ORH 51kt CON 34kt BDL 42kt PVD 45kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9 Author Share Posted December 9 GFS Bufkit is wild at BOS and PYM. Sometimes GFS can overdue mixing, but holy crap those winds at 925. I think the key is to keep the showery stuff west because rain will hep stabilize the atmosphere. Sometimes the squall line can force a strong gust or two...but many times the best winds are preceded ahead of the line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GFS Bufkit is wild at BOS and PYM. Sometimes GFS can overdue mixing, but holy crap those winds at 925. I think the key is to keep the showery stuff west because rain will hep stabilize the atmosphere. Sometimes the squall line can force a strong gust or two...but many times the best winds are preceded ahead of the line. Just checked 6z GFS for bufkit at BOS...that is pretty wild at 9:00 PM Wednesday night. Though if you toggle the Momentum Xfer from 10 to 1 you can see that it is probably a bit overmixed. My early thoughts with this is we'll see some decent sustained winds across the region but if you're going to want gusts above 50 mph you're going to need the assistance of convection. Without convection the gusts may be difficult to come by (and for what you said...showery stuff stabilizing things). And good note about the wind with lines in these setups...important to understand the strongest winds occur just out ahead of the line and just prior to the arrival of the heavy rains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9 Author Share Posted December 9 Just now, weatherwiz said: Just checked 6z GFS for bufkit at BOS...that is pretty wild at 9:00 PM Wednesday night. Though if you toggle the Momentum Xfer from 10 to 1 you can see that it is probably a bit overmixed. My early thoughts with this is we'll see some decent sustained winds across the region but if you're going to want gusts above 50 mph you're going to need the assistance of convection. Without convection the gusts may be difficult to come by (and for what you said...showery stuff stabilizing things). And good note about the wind with lines in these setups...important to understand the strongest winds occur just out ahead of the line and just prior to the arrival of the heavy rains Even at 1 mixes to 57kts or so. Didn't even to 10 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: 60kts or bust for PWM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Just now, CoastalWx said: Even at 1 mixes to 57kts or so. Didn't even to 10 lol. Holy shit you're right...I see that at 7:00. That would probably be just before the main line would be approaching BOS too. Just checked the 3km and it has a pretty solid line. You may actually see the line strengthen as it moves west-to-east across the region with the enhanced upper support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS Bufkit is wild at BOS and PYM. Sometimes GFS can overdue mixing, but holy crap those winds at 925. I think the key is to keep the showery stuff west because rain will hep stabilize the atmosphere. Sometimes the squall line can force a strong gust or two...but many times the best winds are preceded ahead of the line. Shouldn’t elevations also rip ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9 Author Share Posted December 9 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Shouldn’t elevations also rip ? They should 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 ICON with another big rainstorm this weekend.. 4 to 7 by Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Some interesting differences on the NAM versus GFS and one of the noteworthy differences is temperatures. At 0z Thursday the NAM is mid-to-upper 50's while the GFS is upper 50's to lower 60's. This may not seem like much but that delta could be a big difference in what is realized in wind potential. I would side with the GFS on this and if you put those temps with the NAM's evolution that is a major wind event for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 There could be a big problem with FZDZ over much of the interior (esp pike northward) tomorrow and into tomorrow evening. Big cold tuck showing up on guidance. The question is how far below freezing it drops. There’s a decent difference between 31.5F and 29F 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9 Author Share Posted December 9 Just now, ORH_wxman said: There could be a big problem with FZDZ over much of the interior (esp pike northward) tomorrow and into tomorrow evening. Big cold tuck showing up on guidance. The question is how far below freezing it drops. There’s a decent difference between 31.5F and 29F Yeah we shouldn't overlook that aspect of this whole thing. Could get quite icy in ORH county and even interior NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There could be a big problem with FZDZ over much of the interior (esp pike northward) tomorrow and into tomorrow evening. Big cold tuck showing up on guidance. The question is how far below freezing it drops. There’s a decent difference between 31.5F and 29F God we hope and pray. Basically on the anniversary of the bigun 16 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There could be a big problem with FZDZ over much of the interior (esp pike northward) tomorrow and into tomorrow evening. Big cold tuck showing up on guidance. The question is how far below freezing it drops. There’s a decent difference between 31.5F and 29F I find it interesting that the HRRR/3km NAM appear to be the "warmest" of guidance. 12km NAM is pretty cold though and the GFS is similar to the 12k NAM...I find this pretty telling...sometimes the GFS struggles with the cold tucks so for it to be hitting on it is pretty big IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Another multi-facet December cutter with strong winds and potential flooding from rain and melting snow. The day has come where you start a winter screamer thread. Oh how the mighty snow weenies have fallen… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The day has come where you start a winter screamer thread. Oh how the mighty snow weenies have fallen… It’s an annual tradition at this point…like the Grinch arriving around Dec 25… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There could be a big problem with FZDZ over much of the interior (esp pike northward) tomorrow and into tomorrow evening. Big cold tuck showing up on guidance. The question is how far below freezing it drops. There’s a decent difference between 31.5F and 29F Is that in addition to tonight? (Winter Weather Advisory for 3PM today-10AM tomorrow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9 Author Share Posted December 9 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The day has come where you start a winter screamer thread. Oh how the mighty snow weenies have fallen… Now that I am averaging more rain than snow, it's what we do. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9 Author Share Posted December 9 8 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said: God we hope and pray. Basically on the anniversary of the bigun 16 years ago. I think the impact is more for traveling vs anything like 2008. That won't happen, but slippery travel could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There could be a big problem with FZDZ over much of the interior (esp pike northward) tomorrow and into tomorrow evening. Big cold tuck showing up on guidance. The question is how far below freezing it drops. There’s a decent difference between 31.5F and 29F I honeslty don't want it, but my area is at risk for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: We want every tree downed Starting with that cabled monstrosity oak in your front yard…take that thing down and send it across the road, once and for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Is that in addition to tonight? (Winter Weather Advisory for 3PM today-10AM tomorrow) Correct. Tonight is mainly north of rt 2. But as the mesolow passes by us overnight, it is going to tuck the sfc cold back south into MA. I think anyone from NE MA outside of 128 into central MA needs to pay attention. Could get quite icy…assuming we drop temps into that 30-31F range and not 32-33F. Some of the guidance has upper 20s in NE MA and in that Rt 3 corridor near ASH to Billerica. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I honeslty don't want it, but my area is at risk for it. Yeah your area is basically a lock for it I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Should be getting 12z gfs bufkit soon. Something exciting about waiting for new bufkit profiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Starting with that cabled monstrosity oak in your front yard…take that thing down and send it across the road, once and for all. Maybe it’ll even reach your roof ! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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