2024-2025 Panic Room

[IronTy]

14 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Lol if u say so 

No doubt.  It's more like 1-2wks anymore.   

[87storms]

How's January '26 looking?

[Terpeast]

25 minutes ago, 87storms said:

How's January '26 looking?

Modoki

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Would you believe, I've just written a masterpiece as I was tying my cravat!  Yes, a little Christmas ditty for the season, appropriate for the Panic Room!  I hope the Reaper @WxWatcher007 approves!  Well, here it is...

 

The Twelve Days of Reaping

On the first day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Ji canceling winter in a pear tree!

On the second day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Two skeletons!
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the third day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Three shovels digging!
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the fourth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Four gravesite headstones!
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the fifth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Five…Hapless…Souls!
Four gravesite headstones,
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the sixth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Six gallows waiting!
Five…Hapless…Souls!
Four gravesite headstones,
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the seventh day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Seven scythes swathing!
Six gallows waiting,
Five…Hapless…Souls!
Four gravesite headstones
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the eighth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Eight souls a’screamin'!
Seven scythes swathing,
Six gallows waiting,

Five…Hapless…Souls!
Four gravesites headstones,
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the ninth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Nine Debbie-downers cryin’!
Eight souls a’screamin’,
Seven scythes swathing,
Six gallows waiting,
Five…Hapless…Souls!
Four gravesite headstones,
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the tenth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Ten axes grinding!
Nine Debbie-downers cryin’,
Eight souls a’screamin’,
Seven scythes swathing,
Six gallows waiting,
Five…Hapless…Souls!
Four gravesite headstones,
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the eleventh day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Eleven brand new caskets !
Ten axes grinding,
Nine Debbie-downers cryin’,
Eight souls a’screamin’,
Seven scythes swathing,
Six gallows waiting,
Five…Hapless…Souls!
Four gravesite headstones,
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree.

On the twelfth day of Christmas, the Reaper gave to me…
Twelve weenies jumping!
Eleven brand new caskets,
Ten axes grinding,
Nine Debbie-downers cryin’,
Eight souls a;screamin’,
Seven scythes swathing,
Six gallows waiting,
Five…Hapless…Souls!
Four gravesite headstones,
Three shovels digging,
Two skeletons,
And Ji canceling winter in a pear tree!!!!!

 

Happy Reaping!
 

[WxWatcher007]

Five hapless souls!

[psuhoffman]

On 12/12/2024 at 11:32 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

Psu is one of our best posters but man I feel like he needs to take the trolling  here sometimes 

I’ll try, but most of the time I’m not trolling it’s just whatever statistics or historical analysis I’m giving is so awful it seems like trolling. That’s just our reality though lol. 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll try, but most of the time I’m not trolling it’s just whatever statistics or historical analysis I’m giving is so awful it seems like trolling. That’s just our reality though lol. 

I get it - I guess it’s just a preference of what kind of discussion we want in those rooms, which we don’t need to rehash. I like endlessly talking about threats with a 10% chance to work out since I find that fun, while you are more in long-range unless we’ve got something real, which we increasingly don’t lol. And the long-range is doom. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I get it - I guess it’s just a preference of what kind of discussion we want in those rooms, which we don’t need to rehash. I like endlessly talking about threats with a 10% chance to work out since I find that fun, while you are more in long-range unless we’ve got something real, which we increasingly don’t lol. And the long-range is doom. 

Fair enough. I get it. I miss the good old days when we had winters where I could spend a lot of the time doing analysis of a specific legit threat rather than looking at day 15 height anomalies and saying “still sucks”.  
 

All I’ll say is this….keep in mind I’m actually still too optimistic. Trolling would be if I intentionally was making things worse than they are. But I can’t remember the last time I said some pattern sucked or it wasn’t gonna snow and then it did. But I can remember multiple examples in the last 5 years where I said I was exciter and thought we had a good chance and it didn’t snow. I still over predict snow. 

[Chris78]

On 11/6/2024 at 8:10 AM, Chris78 said:

BWI : 3.9"

DCA : 2.4"

IAD : 5.1"

RIC: 1.2"

 

Tie Breaker SBY 1.1"

I'm thinking I may of been too bullish in the contest. 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Fair enough. I get it. I miss the good old days when we had winters where I could spend a lot of the time doing analysis of a specific legit threat rather than looking at day 15 height anomalies and saying “still sucks”.  
 

All I’ll say is this….keep in mind I’m actually still too optimistic. Trolling would be if I intentionally was making things worse than they are. But I can’t remember the last time I said some pattern sucked or it wasn’t gonna snow and then it did. But I can remember multiple examples in the last 5 years where I said I was exciter and thought we had a good chance and it didn’t snow. I still over predict snow. 

Yea last year you got my hopes up. Then mid January arrived and it was clear things were in trouble. I wish we could just get climo snowfall at this point.

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Not sure if this will verify, but it it does, we deserve it!!  During this -PDOom period, cold has been shunted away from the eastern Conus like we had a laser shield around us.  Which, with the SER, we kind of have had a shield..

 

11 minutes ago, frd said:

Canada is also well above normal with some of their anomalies in excess of 30 degrees above normal. That indicates no further cold intrusions for the U.S. for the foreseeable future.

It’s been requested I keep negative posts not directly about the current pattern here so here goes…

CBM: Yes the negative anomalies are centered over us and have been…but it’s not enough. I’ve wondered this when seeing some of the isolated cold pockets out west the last 10 years…”would that even do it for us if it was centered in the east”. As we warm these tiny cut off pockets of cool just aren’t gonna cut it. Yea we could get lucky if every synoptic variable is perfect but most of the time it’s chilly but the cold airmass doesn’t have the depth necessary to withstand the WAA and return flow ahead of a wave strong enough to give us a decent storm. The only time it’s cold enough in these shallow cold pockets is on a NW flow. So we get cold dry warm wet.
 
frd: exactly but the issue is if you look at the loading pattern for all our big snows that feature a trough just off the west coast and a split flow which floods Canada with pacific maritime. Canada was warm during almost all our snowstorms and that’s why almost all our snow comes with temps not too far below freezing. There are rare exceptions but warm everything just a few degrees and DC loses the majority of its snow!  The issue is these pacific maritime intrusions used to being +5 or +8 not +20!  Recently the pacific intrusions have warmed out source regions so much that even when we get a perfect setup it’s too warm. We have to hope this changes when the pdo flips, and I’m hopeful that will help. But I’m not sold the pdo is 100% of the issue. 

[psuhoffman]

@WxUSAF @Terpeast

We’ve discussed evaluating how much snow we may have lost due to warming but I’d love to see if a reverse method was used to assess how much snow would have fallen around the area in 2020-21 had it been the 1960s. 
 

I say that because there were several times that winter analogs from the 60s were at the top. And it was a pretty good pattern with several perfect track rainstorms.  I got 50” up here because my boundary was just cold enough with elevation. The boundary is waning the fastest. I’m curious to see if that was supposed to be one of the good winters in an otherwise bad period. Overall the pattern has been shite recently but we’ve always had a skewed snowfall distribution with big years surrounded by crap making up a large portion of our snow. If we were to lose just say 1/3 of those big years it would have a catastrophic effect on our snowfall. 
 

We had this mean H5 for the core of that winter and only higher elevations cashed in!

 

 Thoughts?  

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

 

It’s been requested I keep negative posts not directly about the current pattern here so here goes…

CBM: Yes the negative anomalies are centered over us and have been…but it’s not enough. I’ve wondered this when seeing some of the isolated cold pockets out west the last 10 years…”would that even do it for us if it was centered in the east”. As we warm these tiny cut off pockets of cool just aren’t gonna cut it. Yea we could get lucky if every synoptic variable is perfect but most of the time it’s chilly but the cold airmass doesn’t have the depth necessary to withstand the WAA and return flow ahead of a wave strong enough to give us a decent storm. The only time it’s cold enough in these shallow cold pockets is on a NW flow. So we get cold dry warm wet.
 
frd: exactly but the issue is if you look at the loading pattern for all our big snows that feature a trough just off the west coast and a split flow which floods Canada with pacific maritime. Canada was warm during almost all our snowstorms and that’s why almost all our snow comes with temps not too far below freezing. There are rare exceptions but warm everything just a few degrees and DC loses the majority of its snow!  The issue is these pacific maritime intrusions used to being +5 or +8 not +20!  Recently the pacific intrusions have warmed out source regions so much that even when we get a perfect setup it’s too warm. We have to hope this changes when the pdo flips, and I’m hopeful that will help. But I’m not sold the pdo is 100% of the issue. 

Thank you for sharing your thoughts.  You don't have to work hard to convince me: I'm already living in elephant-land.  In my area I think we've already passed the tipping point.  The one bright side for me is I personally truly enjoy cold in and off itself, so I can get joy out cold dry periods like we just had.  I know that's not your cup of tea.

I do think there is some legitimate question of how much we might recover if we can get out of the super-PDO (and perhaps the +AMO?).  I'm 100% certain that this isn't 100% of the problem, but is it 10%, 20%, 50%, 80%?  If we could get back to 80% of say the 90s/2000s, I think that would be a victory.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF @Terpeast

We’ve discussed evaluating how much snow we may have lost due to warming but I’d love to see if a reverse method was used to assess how much snow would have fallen around the area in 2020-21 had it been the 1960s. 
 

I say that because there were several times that winter analogs from the 60s were at the top. And it was a pretty good pattern with several perfect track rainstorms.  I got 50” up here because my boundary was just cold enough with elevation. The boundary is waning the fastest. I’m curious to see if that was supposed to be one of the good winters in an otherwise bad period. Overall the pattern has been shite recently but we’ve always had a skewed snowfall distribution with big years surrounded by crap making up a large portion of our snow. If we were to lose just say 1/3 of those big years it would have a catastrophic effect on our snowfall. 
 

We had this mean H5 for the core of that winter and only higher elevations cashed in!

 

 Thoughts?  

That year was a scary one.  The return of the -NAO after 10 years.  I remember everyone being angry and puzzled when someone, maybe Ji, was complaining that despite the good 500 pattern temps were normal at best.  Several, including myself, observed that we had had a record warm ++++AO episode in November that had really hurt the source regions, so that the December blocking had no cold to work with.  That was true...but the disturbing thing is that a November torch shouldn't have destroyed the rest of winter like that.  But it did, or if not destroy it, it certainly limited the upside severely. 

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

An evolution that seems plausible based on long range guidance would be:

1. 1-2 strong cutters wave break during the Dec 29-Jan 2 period. This builds the NAO ridging.

2. They being in a cool, but not cold airmass for Jan 3-5.

3. Their remnants park in the 50/50 zone and provide confluence.

4. Another s/w approaches with a good track and acceptable airmass.

5. Profit

pass. want the progression to be delayed 1 week. If the one time it snows this winter is while I'm on vacation I'm gonna have to move to buffalo for the month of February and pray for lake effect

[NorthArlington101]

22 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

pass. want the progression to be delayed 1 week. If the one time it snows this winter is while I'm on vacation I'm gonna have to move to buffalo for the month of February and pray for lake effect

this talk of a Jan 3-6th window is much better. 

[NorthArlington101]

4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

this talk of a Jan 3-6th window is much better. 

if I miss the Jan 1996 redux ill be inconsolable 

[cbmclean]

53 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

if I miss the Jan 1996 redux ill be inconsolable 

Like you wouldn't just cancel your vacation if that was looking probable.  Surely everyone in your family would understand.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Like you wouldn't just cancel your vacation if that was looking probable.  Surely everyone in your family would understand.

They would but I do also want to go to the beach - been more than a year since I’ve traveled out of the DMV. Getting restless. Just hoping if it happens it happens before or after lol 

[bncho]

49 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

They would but I do also want to go to the beach - been more than a year since I’ve traveled out of the DMV. Getting restless. Just hoping if it happens it happens before or after lol 

More than 8 years since youve seen a blizzard.

[JenkinsJinkies]

14 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

if I miss the Jan 1996 redux ill be inconsolable 

If that happens I feel that the next 8-10 winters will be wall to wall mild and snowless just to spite you.

[cbmclean]

Modelerd pattern beginning to look epic...that is usually the sign that the collapse is coming soon.  Will it be a slow bleed, or a cankick/rug pull?

[IronTy]

18 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Modelerd pattern beginning to look epic...that is usually the sign that the collapse is coming soon.  Will it be a slow bleed, or a cankick/rug pull?

Usually a slow bleed with the advertised pattern slipping a day or two each model run to drag us along.  

[NorthArlington101]

19 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Modelerd pattern beginning to look epic...that is usually the sign that the collapse is coming soon.  Will it be a slow bleed, or a cankick/rug pull?

The rug pull last Christmas/December in general still breaks my heart. Every week, the next week was supposed to kick off an epic December. 

[bncho]

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Modelerd pattern beginning to look epic...that is usually the sign that the collapse is coming soon.  Will it be a slow bleed, or a cankick/rug pull?

Neither, please!