Ahoff Posted Friday at 10:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:53 PM Good news is NWS upped the limit through 7 am Monday from 8” to 9”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted Friday at 11:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:03 PM Ah yeah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Friday at 11:33 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:33 PM Appears the lake connection is disorganized and most of the heavier bands will remain north of the city. Still a great winter day regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 02:53 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:53 AM 3k would make us happy. It's out of range but so far as lot of the guidance looks better. Time for the rug pull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted Saturday at 02:53 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:53 AM Couple reports of 4”+ within about 5 miles of me. Great day IMBY, but im probably closer to 3” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Saturday at 03:26 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:26 AM It was about 2.5” officially at KPIT. Pretty good day today. Let’s cross our fingers for good trends this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Saturday at 03:42 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:42 AM The last frames of the HRRR look like they could incredible as long as it moves into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 04:01 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 04:01 AM Gfs not good. Maybe the euro will help us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted Saturday at 04:18 AM Share Posted Saturday at 04:18 AM 12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Gfs not good. Maybe the euro will help us My guess is maybe the Euro ticks north, but feels like maybe going to meet in the middle with GFS. Not cooked yet, but starting to think the possibility of a warning event north of i70 is fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Saturday at 12:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:17 PM Yeah, this is unfortunate. Somehow we always get screwed, whether north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted Saturday at 12:20 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:20 PM Hopefully we can hang on to a 2-4, 3-5" type deal at least. We're extremely deprived on those events also it seems. Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted Saturday at 01:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:00 PM Wunderground down to 2”. Sad. Low energy. Still nice overall when coupled with yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted Saturday at 02:07 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:07 PM Looking at 12z to see if we get any meaningful expansions north, this is typically when the slow bleed north starts to screw us. This time WAA being stronger than forecast may help is unless this is the one time its not. Im really only looking to not be on the fringe and have a reasonable shot at 3-5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted Saturday at 02:13 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:13 PM 1 hour ago, Gordo74 said: Wunderground down to 2”. Sad. Low energy. Still nice overall when coupled with yesterday. Good point, its currently 19 degrees with light snow falling after scoring 3-4 yesterday and a solid wintry period forecast for at least the next 2 weeks and at least some snow tomorrow night. A lot of recent winters I think we would kill to have that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Saturday at 02:25 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:25 PM The 12z HRRR doesn't look too bad from hours 40-48, it put down 4-5" over those 8 hours, and there's still more it's showing. I know it's at the edge of it usefulness at that point, but if it hangs on it could be decent. NAM 12z isn't terrible, but the precip shield falls apart completely by hour 50. Kuchera is around 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted Saturday at 02:28 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:28 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted Saturday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:32 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted Saturday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:34 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted Saturday at 02:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:54 PM 47 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Looking at 12z to see if we get any meaningful expansions north, this is typically when the slow bleed north starts to screw us. This time WAA being stronger than forecast may help is unless this is the one time its not. Im really only looking to not be on the fringe and have a reasonable shot at 3-5. Hopefully one of the few times WAA can benefit us. Having the nose of the confluence east of the apps could produce a slight inverted trough. This feature has benefited us in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 02:54 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:54 PM Looks good enough for our biggest storm in awhile but still need to see other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 03:04 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:04 PM In the meantime my furnace is about to break. Oh joy. Idk if that's worse than what the NWS has to deal with. I guess that's why we are in the range of 2-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Saturday at 03:36 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:36 PM I think I'd rather have the short term models on our side at this point, than the globals. But we'll see if they hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted Saturday at 03:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:50 PM 3 hours ago, meatwad said: Would probably rather have that heavier shield creeping north like that even if the top end is lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 03:52 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:52 PM 5 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I think I'd rather have the short term models on our side at this point, than the globals. But we'll see if they hold. Rgem is not on our side. Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted Saturday at 03:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:53 PM This is normally the time the short term models start punching a little north to slop on our parade. This time it would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM Trends aren't out friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 05:44 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 05:44 PM Yeah the trends suck. Maybe we get lucky. Keep your expectations low, and hopefully short range models trend better. Nowcasting always has surprises so I wouldn't give up yet but we most likely won't see warning levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted Saturday at 07:22 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:22 PM Tolleris’s map is horrible and he used to think Pgh was in Westmoreland County. But he has been decent over the years in terms of cutting through model differences and understanding which may win. If so - still in it. (Although not sure what is supposed to happen above the 6” because I live right above it - lol) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted Saturday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:42 PM This may be one rare case where I'm in a better spot being at the southern border of Allegheny County. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 08:01 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 08:01 PM It's the long range HRRR proceed with extreme caution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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