Pittsburgh/Western PA Winter 2024-2025 Thread

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Nice winter day out there today as well. Overcast with flurries and light snow most of the day with more on the way. Tomorrow could be interesting if you find yourself under one of the more intense bands in the afternoon:

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Winter Weather Warning and Advisories in effect for most of
  the region Friday until late Saturday morning.
- High confidence in totals for the high terrain with potential
  for warning criteria accumulations along the I-80 corridor.
- Period of convective heavy snow showers are possible during
  daylight hours that may lead to rapid visibility restrictions
  and slick roadways.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Rapid transition of an upper level trough through the Ohio River
Valley is expected Friday morning. Trough dynamics and weak
frontogenetic forcing are expected to form a shield of snow that
will be mainly focused along and south of I-70 for roughly the
4am-10am period. As the trough axis exits, steep lapse rates
plus developing lake fetches may foster a more convective snow
shower environment with favorable DGZ growth as weak instability
develops within that ideal zone. Expect widespread (trending
toward scattered) heavy snow showers that may exhibit snow
squall characteristics (rapid visibility restrictions, quick
accumulations) which could lead to tricky travel conditions;
notably this ideal convective shower timeframe stretches from
roughly 10am-6pm and the incorporates the afternoon commute.
Finally, further veering of boundary layer winds to the NW
Friday evening into Saturday morning will favor lake streamers,
(or bands), that could create localized heavy snow but tend to
favor northwest PA and the higher terrain.

[Rd9108]

6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I think there is still room for the precip shield to expand northward a bit if the confluence is just a little weaker without really affecting the overall track of the storm.

Agreed it's a fine line. The closer the heaviest precip the closer the mix line. Just seems like with this being so southern jet stream dominated that WAA may be under modeled, and the storm winds up slightly north of the models. 

[Ahoff]

Wow, in the 2-4” range for tomorrow now.  That’s unexpected.

[Rd9108]

3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Wow, in the 2-4” range for tomorrow now.  That’s unexpected.

HRRR shows around 3 and then who knows with lake effect. Regardless it looks like we will start building a snow pack. 

[Ahoff]

55 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

HRRR shows around 3 and then who knows with lake effect. Regardless it looks like we will start building a snow pack. 

That's great.  Usually trends at this stage, don't go our way.  Hopefully, that also holds true for Monday.

[Mailman]

GFS has the warm tongue looming on Monday.

[Rd9108]

6 minutes ago, Mailman said:

GFS has the warm tongue looming on Monday.

Just saw that. Funny how we go from worrying about suppression to too warm. I figured this would come back north so not surprised. It's only one run and few days away. 

[Ahoff]

6 minutes ago, Mailman said:

GFS has the warm tongue looming on Monday.

Shhh, don’t acknowledge it, lol!

[Burghblizz]

12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Just saw that. Funny how we go from worrying about suppression to too warm. I figured this would come back north so not surprised. It's only one run and few days away. 

Low still passing south and transferring - so I would think any tongue flirtations are brief. 

[north pgh]

1 minute ago, Burghblizz said:

Low still passing south and transferring - so I would think any tongue flirtations are brief. 

Agree

[Rd9108]

Euro hasn't budged which is quite amazing. Has us with around 6 which is solid but amazing how steady it's been for the most part. On to the 0z!

[Ahoff]

They upped the WWA to 2-5”

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

From my local forecast for tomorrow!!:

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southwest and western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 4 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[PghPirates27]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Crazy the windiest day was a few days ago

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, PghPirates27 said:

Crazy the windiest day was a few days ago

I think that was just the highest official gust. Certainly was quite windy though regionwide that evening, with a lot of power outages.

[Rd9108]

Lmao the gfs sends the mix line right into the area. Let's see what the euro does.

[Homie J]

Of course now we start pushing too far north.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Lmao the gfs sends the mix line right into the area. Let's see what the euro does.

Yeah, the more amped solution I was rooting for can stop now... but damn if this isn't a sweet pass...

[Rd9108]

Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah, the more amped solution I was rooting for can stop now... but damn if this isn't a sweet pass...

Cmc isn't as amped. I kind of like where we sit. Not necessarily for the bullseye but for atleast a warning event. Something we haven't had in awhile. Time for bed. Won't be up for the euro unless we get a call in the middle of the night. 

[north pgh]

There might be some snow squall warnings tomorrow afternoon 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Cmc isn't as amped. I kind of like where we sit. Not necessarily for the bullseye but for atleast a warning event. Something we haven't had in awhile. Time for bed. Won't be up for the euro unless we get a call in the middle of the night. 

If say GFS is the Northern most goalpost and CMC is the Southern most Im with you, may not bullseye but will a solid event. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

5 minutes ago, north pgh said:

There might be some snow squall warnings tomorrow afternoon 

Im certainly looking forward to now cast and radar watching and if a squall hits grabbing the dog leash and heading out for a walk. 

[blackngoldrules]

00z GFS goes north. 00z Euro goes south. Euro right now looks closer to what the GFS was a few days ago. It suppresses and gives us very little for storm #2. It'll be interesting to see which one budges starting tomorrow. I think the GFS is too amped up now for that one. The totals it's spitting out seem unrealistic. Anyway, about to enjoy tomorrow's round.

[Rd9108]

Lmao of course the euro goes south. Can't make it up. It's been very steady on being further south. Oh well still time and we still have snow tomorrow.

[Ahoff]

Isn’t GFS always the most amped and Euro the most muted usually?  We might be in a pretty decent spot if that’s the case.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Looks like everything trended South on the 6z runs with Euro being about an inch north of the city if you remove today's snow. Not the look we want to see continue. GFS at 00z was to amped for comfort last night but still looks to be the furthest north at 6z.

[Burghblizz]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Isn’t GFS always the most amped and Euro the most muted usually?  We might be in a pretty decent spot if that’s the case.

Usually the opposite - which makes it kind of funny. 

[Rd9108]

Yikes euro is barely an inch and it's drier. This one might be over. Only the NAM gives us the goods. Those damn midatlantic weenies win again!

[Burghblizz]

That’s why I was a little less worried about tongue. Just seemed to be a lot of guidance south. Also more W-E orientation and transfer that happens south. Still don’t hate where we sit.