Pittsburgh/Western PA Winter 2024-2025 Thread

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[Rd9108]

Still a few days out but the 1/5 threat is looking better. Of course we still might have a rug pull happen. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

I set my bar at if this good pattern is still showing legs by Jan 1st Id start to buy in. For the first time in awhile nothing has changed, and we should have a solid two weeks of tracking at least!

Probably one of the more technical NWS PBZ discussions:

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Late week pattern shift will favor below normal temperature,
  periodic snow, and high terrain gusty wind.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

All the teleconnections point toward sustained cold through the
middle of January. MJO is in phase 7 and moving into phase 8,
which is a cold signal for our area. GEFS show PNA heading more
positive, while blocking near Greenland and high heights has the
NAO going negative and suggesting west coast ridge and east
coast trough. AO showing a negative trend towards a mean of -4
So the dreaded pattern of being well below normal in the coldest
part of the year after two mild winters will make this feel
relatively bad.

Another trough expected with roughly 100 meter height falls
around Friday, which helps drop 850 mb temps from -12C range
toward -16C. Given the flow turns more NW, expect another round
of lake effect snow showers over more of the forecast area.

Saturday looks to be the coldest day this week with temperatures
likely to be about 10F below normal.

Uncertainty then increases substantially for Sunday and Monday.
Timing and details of what looks to be a potent trough
somewhere from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes area will
obviously lead to a snow or ice event that could be significant.
Because there is a wide spread of temperatures and QPF it is
hard to know yet how much impacts there will be in the Upper
Ohio River Valley.

[jwilson]

Euro and UK ensembles spitting out around a 5" average for Monday in AGH, but I haven't looked at the individual members to see if those are skewed by a few high members or if there's a measure of similarity.

The operational models trend pretty well.  Euro has been more consistent than the GFS, and the former has scored higher in verification lately.  GFS might be struggling in this pattern.

GFS wants to basically squash the Monday event because of the massive 50/50 and its confluence.  If that could move East a bit quicker or develop weaker, it lends to a higher ceiling.  Too much in that direction, though, and you eventually lose CAD (cold air damming) and bring in the warm tongue potential. 

This isn't a true southern slider.  It's pushing into the TN valley.  GFS takes the weakened low over Morgantown.  Euro over Charleston.  In a normal evolution this is your typical Miller B or hybrid.

[Rd9108]

This looks right to me

 

[TheClimateChanger]

49 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

This looks right to me

 

Climatologically, not really an outcome that can be discounted. Not unusual to see big storms sliding to our south, although that hasn't been the case in recent years [largely because it's been too warm in that area for heavy snowfall outside of the mountains]. And, of course, snowfall north of I-80 is complements of Lake Erie, with upslope enhancement in the higher terrain.

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Climatologically, not really an outcome that can be discounted. Not unusual to see big storms sliding to our south, although that hasn't been the case in recent years [largely because it's been too warm in that area for heavy snowfall outside of the mountains]. And, of course, snowfall north of I-80 is complements of Lake Erie, with upslope enhancement in the higher terrain.

Of course not but we seen things trend north lasts second more so than south. Suppression does happen but id say it's rarer than the warm nose pushing in and screwing us. 

[SteelCity87]

Honestly after the last couple winters I'm just happy to see a week full of snow chances. If we can pick up a few inches from the lake and a storm that's a win to me.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[Ahoff]

Looks like interesting times ahead for the next few weeks.

 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Of course not but we seen things trend north lasts second more so than south. Suppression does happen but id say it's rarer than the warm nose pushing in and screwing us. 

Id much rather need less confluence than more at this range. Not to say its a guarantee but typically its overdone in the medium range. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Including the ensembles, quick cliff notes is pretty much all options on the table between whiff south and so far north we get warm tongued. Fate lies in the ultimate strength of the shortwave but more important how strong and far south the low creating the confluence ends up.

[Rd9108]

0z gfs looks good. Every option is still on the table. 

[PghPirates27]

Happy new year all!

[Rd9108]

Happy New Year

Still early but lastest blend 

 

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Happy New Year

Still early but lastest blend 

 

Still looks good to me.  I'd take that in a heartbeat.

[Rd9108]

Latest trends look good. Not to mention a possible 1-3 Friday.  We are now fully in Winter mode. I expect our thread will start to get active in the coming days.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Tonight not disappointing, got under a semi persistent narrow band. May end up with an inch or so.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Latest trends look good. Not to mention a possible 1-3 Friday.  We are now fully in Winter mode. I expect our thread will start to get active in the coming days.

I agree, especially if we can score a moderate event on the front end and add some light refreshers on top it will feel pretty sarisfying after the last couple years. 

[Rd9108]

25 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I agree, especially if we can score a moderate event on the front end and add some light refreshers on top it will feel pretty sarisfying after the last couple years. 

HRRR is juiced for Friday 

[north pgh]

I like me some Canadian please. 

[Rd9108]

4 minutes ago, north pgh said:

I like me some Canadian please. 

Just saw that before I'm headed to bed. Look at the kuchera with ratios. This would shut down the city. Gfs is trending slowly toward the other models buts it's still south of most guidance.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

7 hours ago, north pgh said:

I like me some Canadian please. 
 

Nearly perfect track on the 00z GEM. Looks like it's the furthest north right now. Another nudge north on the GFS / EURO would be ideal, but fully expect as we narrow the goal posts to see it wobbling back and forth. Into full tracking mode now, so onto the next runs. 

[Rd9108]

Euro is painfully close but misses to the south. Still time for it to come north but right now our area minus a few posters are on the fringe. Let's see what today shows. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro is painfully close but misses to the south. Still time for it to come north but right now our area minus a few posters are on the fringe. Let's see what today shows. 

I'm rooting for a stronger shortwave \ more negative tilt to really amp up that moisture transport, we get that and it would take only subtle improvements on that for lack of a better word 50/50 low spinning out in the Atlantic. No matter what, models will struggle to get a handle on any individual spokes of vorticity rotating around that feature which will have a big impact (at least big from our perspective) on just how far north this can get.

Don't want to look past tomorrow either which still looks good for 1-2 inches and maybe some areas of 3 if you get lucky with a follow up LES band. 

[Burghblizz]

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I'm rooting for a stronger shortwave \ more negative tilt to really amp up that moisture transport, we get that and it would take only subtle improvements on that for lack of a better word 50/50 low spinning out in the Atlantic. No matter what, models will struggle to get a handle on any individual spokes of vorticity rotating around that feature which will have a big impact (at least big from our perspective) on just how far north this can get.

Don't want to look past tomorrow either which still looks good for 1-2 inches and maybe some areas of 3 if you get lucky with a follow up LES band. 

Agree with taking them one at a time - I’ll enjoy whatever falls.

I remember occasions over the years where people were bickering about bigger storms falling apart on the models, while it was snowing  2-3” that day :-)

[north pgh]

Things still looking up. It looks like 1-2 over the  next couple days. If things hold together we could be seeing another 2-4 3-5 on Monday with about 9 hours of snow falling. Even if the system moves north and we get some mix or moves south and we only get 1-2 more it will stick around for at least 2 weeks as the cold will be here and more opportunities arise. 

[meatwad]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1237 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

OHZ040-041-049-050-059-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073-
075-077-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-030300-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0001.250103T0900Z-250104T1500Z/
Carroll-Columbiana-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Belmont-Monroe-Mercer-
Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-
Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-
Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Including the cities of Lower Burrell, Washington, Waynesburg,
Latrobe, Oil City, Clarion, Brookville, Uniontown, Columbiana,
Moundsville, Steubenville, East Liverpool, Weirton, Hermitage,
Butler, Aliquippa, Sharon, New Castle, Carrollton, Franklin,
Martins Ferry, Follansbee, Pittsburgh Metro Area, New Kensington,
Beaver Falls, Greensburg, Woodsfield, Wheeling, Ford City,
Murrysville, Tionesta, Monaca, Indiana, Malvern, Salem, New
Martinsville, Kittanning, Ellwood City, Canonsburg, Monessen,
Wellsburg, Ambridge, Grove City, Cadiz, Punxsutawney, Morgantown,
Fairmont, and St. Clairsville
1237 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio, northwest, southwest, and
  western Pennsylvania, and northern and the northern panhandle of
  West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions with potential quick
  bursts of snow that rapidly reduce visibilities. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please report snow or ice accumulations by calling 412-262-1988,
posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter
@NWSPittsburgh.

&&

$$

Frazie

 

[Rd9108]

First winter weather advisory of the year! Maybe we can get a warning on Monday. Latest euro looks pretty solid with room to improve if the precip busts low or the max is further north than modeled. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

First winter weather advisory of the year! Maybe we can get a warning on Monday. Latest euro looks pretty solid with room to improve if the precip busts low or the max is further north than modeled. 

I think there is still room for the precip shield to expand northward a bit if the confluence is just a little weaker without really affecting the overall track of the storm.