Pittsburgh/Western PA Winter 2024-2025 Thread

[Rd9108]

Zero chance it happens guys. Sorry to burst your bubble. The seasonal trend has not been friendly for heavier synoptic storms north of the Dixon. 

[blackngoldrules]

Zero chance it happens guys. Sorry to burst your bubble. The seasonal trend has not been friendly for heavier synoptic storms north of the Dixon. 

Sucks to be in the bullseye 5 days out and on just one model. Just to tease us a little before the rug gets ripped out yet again. Lol

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[CoraopolisWx]

1 hour ago, blackngoldrules said:

Sucks to be in the bullseye 5 days out and on just one model. Just to tease us a little before the rug gets ripped out yet again. Lol

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Have to see if the NS vort hanging back a bit becomes a trend, or just a momentary blip. 

[jwilson]

Not a lot of support from the ensembles, and right now it's the only model with this solution.

It's also shown a larger magnitude storm many times this winter in the mid-range.  None have amplified as advertised.  If we're under 72 hours and have some consistency, then I might get interested.

[Rd9108]

9 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Not a lot of support from the ensembles, and right now it's the only model with this solution.

It's also shown a larger magnitude storm many times this winter in the mid-range.  None have amplified as advertised.  If we're under 72 hours and have some consistency, then I might get interested.

Everything has deamplified. I don't see how this one doesn't follow the seasonal trend especially whenever most other guidance is against the GFS. 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TimB]

15 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Have to see if the NS vort hanging back a bit becomes a trend, or just a momentary blip. 

And it’s gone.

[TheClimateChanger]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1004 AM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

PAZ014-020>022-029-031-073>078-041715-
Butler-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana-Higher Elevations of Indiana-
Including the cities of Butler, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls,
Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, Ford City,
Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg,
New Kensington, Lower Burrell, Latrobe, Monessen, Ligonier,
Donegal, Uniontown, Champion, Ohiopyle, Indiana, and Armagh
1004 AM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

Low relative humidity and fuel moisture values will impose an
increased risk for fire danger this afternoon. Relative humidity
values are expected to drop as low as 25% during peak heating
hours across southwest Pennsylvania. In addition, southerly wind
gusts to 15-20 mph at times are expected this afternoon, and this
will work in tandem with the low RH values to create an increased
risk for fire danger. Exercise enhanced caution with activities
that involve open flames or sparks as fires can easily spread in
these weather conditions.

$$

MLB

[Rd9108]

9 hours ago, TimB said:

And it’s gone.

Never trusted it. This winter the trend has been for an extremely fast flow which has just not allowed any of our arctic fronts to phase with southern energy. Seasonal trend is undefeated this winter.