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Pittsburgh/Western PA Winter 2024-2025 Thread


Rd9108
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18 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah, I feel like when I was a kid we almost always had a stretch like this in winter. I remember getting smaller-ish storms, and sled riding then followed up like every other day getting another 1-3 or 2-4 with snow on the ground adding fresh powder to our sled runs lol I'm sure my memory makes it seem more frequent than it probably was but this is the type of stretch I've been missing. Still wouldn't be mad if we scored a bigger storm somewhere along the way. :lol:

I think these stretches are still quite common in an average to good winter here. How else would we average 40”+ while whiffing on big storms. 

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Update focused on handling band of light to locally moderate
snow showers across the central CWA, in a band that likely has
its origins from WNW flow off of southern Lake Michigan. 12Z PBZ
sounding shows saturation through most of the dendritic growth
zone beneath an inversion at around 760mb. Many of the CAMs did
not handle this well, with the NAM3km nest being the one model
that has something close to reality.
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This is definitely a more classic Pittsburgh winter, with many small northern-stream events flowing through the CONUS.  This isn't a big storm pattern right now - too much interference.

We generally want these things on our side: -EPO, -NAO, -AO, 50/50 North Atlantic low, but right now there's too much of each.

The -NAO is too far south.  The -EPO is way too strong and influential on the downstream flow.  The giant North Atlantic trough is shunting potential development.

It's a good pattern, in theory, but in practice we just have too much confluence and not enough southern influence.  If something like this setup in a moderate El Nino base state, I could see the potential.

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