TheClimateChanger Posted Sunday at 03:34 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:34 AM 21Z SREF mean for PIT was 7.5”, with a range of 0” to just under 17.5”. Interestingly, while the mean was 7.5”, all of the solutions showing more than the mean, were above 10”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted Sunday at 05:19 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:19 AM This looks to end up being one of those frustrating storms watching radar returns fade as they move north. Im expecting 1-2 max for my yard. Im sure next time we need south trend it will end up north over Erie lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Sunday at 12:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:07 PM WWA for 2-4”. But the NWS is officially 3-7” with a point total of 5.1”, so… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted Sunday at 01:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:15 PM Why is it that every winter storm there’s always a “sharp gradient” right through our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Sunday at 01:44 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 01:44 PM Latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Sunday at 01:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:56 PM 11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Latest HRRR Not as good, but still a win, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted Sunday at 02:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:16 PM Absolutely is a win with these temps and already having 2-3” of snow on the ground imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Sunday at 02:25 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:25 PM 7 minutes ago, Gordo74 said: Absolutely is a win with these temps and already having 2-3” of snow on the ground imo. Yep just adding to the snow pack. Never believed the northern models since the Euro has stayed consistently south of the area with the snow band. Hopefully this overperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Sunday at 04:01 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:01 PM So if we look out west precip is stronger and falling further north and even earlier than models like the 3k had it. Obviously every little detail matters but maybe a sign of trends out our way. Took this from another forum from a local met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted Sunday at 04:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:10 PM 8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: So if we look out west precip is stronger and falling further north and even earlier than models like the 3k had it. Obviously every little detail matters but maybe a sign of trends out our way. Is that northern edge hitting the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Sunday at 04:11 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:11 PM Just now, Burghblizz said: Is that northern edge hitting the ground? He says Mping confirms this is reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Sunday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:15 PM That’s good news. Hopefully, it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Sunday at 04:45 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:45 PM Last post before I head out. From the same met. The kinds of busts that often happen are when more mesoscale features make or break a forecast. A lot seems to hinge on the WV low pressure that develops from mountain-related effects.Globals, including even the new UKMET, are giving a nod to the HRRR with this possibility this afternoon. Big shift upward with snowfall totals compared to last evening's run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted Sunday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:25 PM Looks like NWS bumped it slightly north.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted Sunday at 08:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:30 PM Looks like NWS bumped it slightly north.. They bumped my point and click totals in Crafton earlier to 1-3" tonight and 2-4" but now just lowered it to 1-2" tonight and 1-3" tmrw lol. Also removed heavy snow.Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Sunday at 08:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:49 PM NWS is tightening the range. Went from high to low of 1-11" to 2-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted Sunday at 09:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:03 PM Let’s go HRRR https://x.com/burgwx/status/1875952478589788617?s=46&t=nIoI0c7NSX6uBBZqtNsThg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Sunday at 10:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:21 PM 1 hour ago, Burghblizz said: Let’s go HRRR https://x.com/burgwx/status/1875952478589788617?s=46&t=nIoI0c7NSX6uBBZqtNsThg I take it the HRRR is handling this well so far? SREF plumes have moved up again. They dropped to around 5” and moved back to 6”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Sunday at 10:30 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 10:30 PM Important thing is to look out west. So far all models have underdone the extent of the northern precip. Now that doesn't mean I'm expecting we see 10, but 6 isn't out of the question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted Sunday at 11:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:06 PM Nws nudged slightly south but not much at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted Sunday at 11:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:48 PM Dropped the WWA back down to 2-4" Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Sunday at 11:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:52 PM 3 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said: Dropped the WWA back down to 2-4" Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk I think that's what I saw it at earlier. Hopefully the HRRR verifys with the farther north precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted Sunday at 11:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:54 PM I think that's what I saw it at earlier. Hopefully the HRRR verifys with the farther north precip shield.They bumped it up to 3-5" for a few hours. They nudged it back down with the last update. Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Sunday at 11:55 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 11:55 PM Just now, SteelCity87 said: They bumped it up to 3-5" for a few hours. They nudged it back down with the last update. Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Nowcasting time. Hope for the best. Short range models have been pretty meh. Atleast it will stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted Sunday at 11:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:56 PM 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Important thing is to look out west. So far all models have underdone the extent of the northern precip. Now that doesn't mean I'm expecting we see 10, but 6 isn't out of the question. Hopefully that translates east and doesn’t get chewed up by dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted Sunday at 11:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:59 PM Nowcasting time. Hope for the best. Short range models have been pretty meh. Atleast it will stick around.Only an inch difference anyway. Just more of a trend of what they're thinking with it. Either way looks like 3 or 4" is a good bet. Would still be in our top 3 storms over the last 3 years Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted yesterday at 12:03 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:03 AM 6 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Hopefully that translates east and doesn’t get chewed up by dry air That dry air means business. Hopefully confluence is less than modeled and we get some surprise. Looking to end of week looks like any storm will most likely be east of us. Pattern looks cold though so the snow will stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted yesterday at 12:40 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:40 AM I said early on 4” would be a victory for this one. Might get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted yesterday at 12:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:48 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted yesterday at 12:51 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:51 AM Bernie owes me about 7' of snow at this point lolSent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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