RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 hours ago, jwilson said: I believe there's a very high correlation between a deep -AO spike relax and a significant nor'easter. Something like 90%? I can't remember off the top of my head, but we just peaked at about -5 on the Arctic Oscillation and will immediately shoot back in the other direction. That sort of quick-change is volatile. It lends credence to the idea of a major storm occurring soon, but the details are TBD. The one big problem is this not being a Nino, we don't have the typical Miller A southern juice. We can "fake" that in a way with a big phased element, but I think the overall setup is more tenuous than if this were a typical warm-ENSO pattern with overrunning. January 1996 was one of those extreme outliers, and we haven't seen that again in the 30 years since, so you know how rare it is. If you get that Gulf of Alaska low to spike that west coast ridge more, or sag the TPV lobe quicker, oriented more north-south, you could trigger an earlier phase that pulls in a more western component to the storm or start developing a wider precip shield. I think that's how Pittsburgh wins from this, but it is more difficult in this overarching pattern, and even 1996 - as the most extreme case - is barely a Top-10 snow for PIT. Granted, there's no history of anything until it happens. I think a best case scenario is probably like 4-6 if we somehow manage that unlikely earlier phase scenario. TPV lobes are mercurial poorly modeled variables wherin small changes can have a pretty large impact on storm development and relying on models to have that accurate at this range is setting yourself up for disappointment. Fingers crossed we pull out a surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Sometimes you just gotta laugh... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Hoping for a good front end thump tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 hours ago, north pgh said: Hoping for a good front end thump tomorrow morning. Am I the only one awake? Pouring snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Actually surprised by the snow this morning. I didn’t actually believe we’d get this part, lol. Helps pad the numbers. Hope we can get a decent enough amount after a change over tomorrow night, so it can at least stick around during the cold snap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Woke up just so I could take a look. Very therapeutic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, north pgh said: Am I the only one awake? Pouring snow Roads around the city were a little slippery. Just had to take it easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 28 minutes ago, north pgh said: Am I the only one awake? Pouring snow Nope, just enjoying. Can post about it once the deluge starts. Looks like at least an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Nope, just enjoying. Can post about it once the deluge starts. Looks like at least an inch. About an inch here too. Still coming down moderate to heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Last frame of CMC shows a decent hit and 6z Euro isn't bad either for the big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Last frame of CMC shows a decent hit and 6z Euro isn't bad either for the big storm. Looks like 00z Euro and CMC did what jwilison was saying is needed with the faster / cleaner phase. Id take either of those. Im not sure how much better that could get, but like I said yesterday that interaction isn't going to be resolved well yet, and a relatively minor change will have a big effect on us since we need the perfect phase timing to pull it west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, north pgh said: About an inch here too. Still coming down moderate to heavy. Moderate here again too. Big flakes exploding on contact lol. Some rimming on the flake structure is noted now so mixing is probably about to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Never loved knowing snow is going to get washed away - but real nice morning here. Mod snow and 1.5” on the ground so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: I'm guessing they meant Sunday not Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Impromptu sled trip to my parents in southern armstrong. Still ripping snow here 3+, not sure about back home. Great morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 48 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I'm guessing they meant Sunday not Saturday? Isn’t that the map for the snow this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Still ripping in butler. Have about 2.5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 42 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Isn’t that the map for the snow this morning? It is. Point and click is like 1-2 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Looks like a general 2-3”. Not bad. Getting sleety/slushy here now. GFS was advertising a pretty thin but robust strip on the back end tomorrow, extending NE from southern Ohio. We’ll see if that sets up like that. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025021512&fh=48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 NAM scored this morning’s thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Hug the snowiest model. UK has a 970 low off the coast of NYC. GFS trended better but the CMC is less amped now. Still have no idea what impact this will have on us. I'm more intrigued on if we get an earlier changeover tomorrow and get more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Hug the snowiest model. UK has a 970 low off the coast of NYC. GFS trended better but the CMC is less amped now. Still have no idea what impact this will have on us. I'm more intrigued on if we get an earlier changeover tomorrow and get more snow. Probably a good sign for the Euro then. Should be rolling in shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 16 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Probably a good sign for the Euro then. Should be rolling in shortly. Nope less amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Nope less amped. Yep, CMC and Euro both a step back from what we need, sloppy phase. Euro compensates a little with a little stronger southern shortwave. Really need that clean early phase. Could still move back to that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yep, CMC and Euro both a step back from what we need, sloppy phase. Euro compensates a little with a little stronger southern shortwave. Still time for change but honestly the seasonal trend has been for weaker and south so not surprising. Any other winter and we would be chomping at the bit because the NW trend is always there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Still time for change but honestly the seasonal trend has been for weaker and south so not surprising. Any other winter and we would be chomping at the bit because the NW trend is always there. Agree, that's definitely been the trend. We've seen a number of big storm looks around 180 hours and then they gradually taper to a messier, progressive wave. It's why areas south of the Mason Dixon keep winning. Nothing along the coast can amplify in this pattern. We see it here again as the Gulf of Alaska low is starting to close the distance between it and the TPV lobe. That wrecks the ridge spike in the west and doesn't allow the lobe to ride down the backside of the trough and phase. If that backside low keeps getting closer, you'll get another weaker s/w that spits sideways off the coast. D.C. might still get something, but areas from PHL north are toasted again. Models keep underestimating the speed of the northern jet in the long-term. Even the ensembles have looked great around that week mark and have been way off on snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Saturday at 11:46 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:46 PM 5 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Still time for change but honestly the seasonal trend has been for weaker and south so not surprising. Any other winter and we would be chomping at the bit because the NW trend is always there. The northwest trend is always there when we don't need it and never there when we do, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Sunday at 02:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:09 PM 2.2” yesterday. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted Sunday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:42 PM 32 minutes ago, Ahoff said: 2.2” yesterday. Not bad. Wouldn’t be shocked to see the same today, although the first batch got obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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