TheClimateChanger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 12:23 AM, RitualOfTheTrout said: I guess the good part is it looks like after next week is when the better pattern takes hold so if it doesn't work out there's still opportunities to be had. 18z GFS had two big storms actually hit us and a couple little ones pushing 30+ inches. Expand We do need to take these model depictions with a grain of salt. For context, the snowiest 16-day periods on record are shown below. The only times that much snow fell in 16 days were with massive snowstorms in December 1890, January 1978, March 1993, and February 2010. Not even November 1950 had that much snow in any 16-day period, officially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 2:35 AM, TheClimateChanger said: We do need to take these model depictions with a grain of salt. For context, the snowiest 16-day periods on record are shown below. The only times that much snow fell in 16 days were with massive snowstorms in December 1890, January 1978, March 1993, and February 2010. Not even November 1950 had that much snow in any 16-day period, officially. Expand And actually this analysis overestimates the recurrence of what was depicted on the 18z GFS. A closer review of the model shows almost all of that falls in the final 8 days of the model run. There has never been that much snow observed in an 8-day period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 2:44 AM, TheClimateChanger said: And actually this analysis overestimates the recurrence of what was depicted on the 18z GFS. A closer review of the model shows almost all of that falls in the final 8 days of the model run. There has never been that much snow observed in an 8-day period. Expand It's usually a red flag when your snow exists only at the backend of OP model runs. Not that it can't happen, but it's stuff you typically bet against. Pattern does look more favorable long-term, however. It's a Nina so the risk is we run dry without a strong STJ presence. Next 10 days look messy, first. Pretty reliant we get lucky on timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 2:35 AM, TheClimateChanger said: We do need to take these model depictions with a grain of salt. For context, the snowiest 16-day periods on record are shown below. The only times that much snow fell in 16 days were with massive snowstorms in December 1890, January 1978, March 1993, and February 2010. Not even November 1950 had that much snow in any 16-day period, officially. Expand Oh I agree 100%. I was using it to show the week after next might actually be more favorable if the pattern evolves as depicted. Realistically I think even expecting half that much is a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Yeah, I don’t think anyone actually thinks we’re getting three feet of snow in a short period of time. It’s fun to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 The MJO is going back into 8 it looks like so the chances of seeing snow again are definitely high. Obviously it's not guaranteed but any sign of warm weather is gonna have to be put on hold after this coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Thunder today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 4:46 PM, north pgh said: Thunder today? Expand SPC has us outlined in a risk for general thunder today. A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms extends as far north as far southern Ohio, including locations such as Gallipolis, Ironton, and Portsmouth, along the Ohio River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 2:19 PM, Rd9108 said: The MJO is going back into 8 it looks like so the chances of seeing snow again are definitely high. Obviously it's not guaranteed but any sign of warm weather is gonna have to be put on hold after this coming week. Expand Maybe, we just need to imagine it's 1993 again. I was doing some research some months back and came across an article in the Post Gazette for early March 1993. And it noted how, after several winters with below to much below normal snowfall, that winter (through the end of February) was actually pretty close to a normal Pittsburgh winter, even though it seemed much worse coming off a spate of mild winters. Snowfall stood at 37.5" versus a seasonal average of 46" (being the seasonal snowfall normal quoted at the time). Of course, little did they know the surprises the rest of March would bring, which would catapult the winter of 1992-1993 to one of the snowiest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 6:53 PM, TheClimateChanger said: Maybe, we just need to imagine it's 1993 again. I was doing some research some months back and came across an article in the Post Gazette for early March 1993. And it noted how, after several winters with below to much below normal snowfall, that winter (through the end of February) was actually pretty close to a normal Pittsburgh winter, even though it seemed much worse coming off a spate of mild winters. Snowfall stood at 37.5" versus a seasonal average of 46" (being the seasonal snowfall normal quoted at the time). Of course, little did they know the surprises the rest of March would bring, which would catapult the winter of 1992-1993 to one of the snowiest on record. Expand Actually, looking back at the records, the seasonal snowfall that winter was only 19.3" through February 12 - that's even less than this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 322 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025 OHZ039-040-048-049-082100- Tuscarawas OH-Harrison OH-Coshocton OH-Carroll OH- 322 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HARRISON...NORTHEASTERN COSHOCTON...SOUTHERN CARROLL AND CENTRAL TUSCARAWAS COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EST... At 322 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles southeast of Killbuck, or 8 miles south of Millersburg, moving east at 75 mph. HAZARD...Half inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... New Philadelphia, Dover, Uhrichsville, Dennison, Sugarcreek, Gnadenhutten, Tuscarawas, Baltic, Scio, Midvale, Jewett, Warsaw, Amsterdam, Bowerston, Barnhill, Dellroy, Sherrodsville, Roswell, Stone Creek, and Leesville. This includes Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 69 and 84. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. && LAT...LON 4045 8199 4044 8167 4053 8166 4058 8086 4056 8086 4056 8092 4047 8092 4047 8094 4042 8094 4042 8086 4034 8087 4033 8201 TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 266DEG 65KT 4043 8187 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH $$ Milcarek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 New special weather statement for parts of the Pittsburgh metro. My current temperature is 31.1F, so this is interesting. Lot of movement on that storm cell as well - 80 mph, wow! Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 357 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025 OHZ040-049-050-PAZ020-021-029-WVZ001-002-082145- Jefferson OH-Harrison OH-Carroll OH-Beaver PA-Allegheny PA- Washington PA-Brooke WV-Hancock WV- 357 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HARRISON...NORTHERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...SOUTHERN BEAVER...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...CENTRAL ALLEGHENY...BROOKE AND HANCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EST... At 357 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10 miles southeast of Carrollton, moving east at 80 mph. HAZARD...Pea size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh, Penn Hills, Mount Lebanon, Ross Township, McCandless Township, Moon Township, Weirton, Steubenville, Franklin Park, Shaler Township, North Side Pittsburgh, Baldwin, Upper St. Clair, Hampton Township, Scott Township, Wilkinsburg, Whitehall, Robinson Township, Dormont, and O`hara Township. This includes the following highways... Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 54 and 72. Parkway North between mile markers 1 and 13. Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 47 and 75. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. && LAT...LON 4034 8111 4052 8112 4060 8000 4049 7982 4036 8000 TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 266DEG 69KT 4044 8101 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH $$ Milcarek 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Wow, don’t see those speeds too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 4:46 PM, north pgh said: Thunder today? Expand Lightning and thunder banging today! If we’re not getting snow I’ll take some thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Pretty much a non event imby. All plain rain, no thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Had a bunch of thunder and (technically) mostly freezing rain. Tree limbs probably had .1”-.15”, but roads were mostly fine here. I feel like New Castle and Butler stayed snow for awhile but I didn’t look up reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Looks like this coming week is turning into nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Shame that a few days ago Tuesday was looking really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 On 2/9/2025 at 8:24 PM, Ahoff said: Shame that a few days ago Tuesday was looking really nice. Expand Who knows, maybe we get a surprise and the 700mb frontgen band goes 200 miles further north and gets us Tuesday lol I wouldn't write anything off yet, but we need some changes for the next two after. Not out of the question one or both ends less amped and further south. This season thats been the trend. If it happens and its enough to make a difference here remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Getting some light snow / flurries this morning. Wasn't expecting that. 12z 3k NAM bumped the precip shield a hair north for tomorrow. Not much, but maybe we could eek 1-2 out of it if it bleeds north up to game time. Im not expecting much of anything though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 2:35 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: Getting some light snow / flurries this morning. Wasn't expecting that. 12z 3k NAM bumped the precip shield a hair north for tomorrow. Not much, but maybe we could eek 1-2 out of it if it bleeds north up to game time. Im not expecting much of anything though. Expand Everything is fringe city now. Miss to the north, slider tomorrow, and then the next one cuts. Just unfortunate string of luck. Pattern still looks like it has promise coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 2:38 PM, Rd9108 said: Everything is fringe city now. Miss to the north, slider tomorrow, and then the next one cuts. Just unfortunate string of luck. Pattern still looks like it has promise coming up. Expand The NAM shows a couple inches tomorrow for the metro area (particularly south), is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 2:51 PM, TheClimateChanger said: The NAM shows a couple inches tomorrow for the metro area (particularly south), is that possible? Expand I mean anything is possible. We've seen nowcasting busts plenty of times. We've seen the fgen band materialize 200 miles north of the main storm. I don't rule anything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 3:03 PM, Rd9108 said: I mean anything is possible. We've seen nowcasting busts plenty of times. We've seen the fgen band materialize 200 miles north of the main storm. I don't rule anything out. Expand It would be nice to get back on the board again. After a fairly snowy start to January, there has only been 0.1" dating back to the 25th. And the last 30 days (1/12-2/10) have only measured a total of 6.3 inches. That's pretty crappy in what climatologically is the snowiest period in Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 2:51 PM, TheClimateChanger said: The NAM shows a couple inches tomorrow for the metro area (particularly south), is that possible? Expand I guess it depends how far South lol. Seems unlikely anything more than half inch or so for the city, but yeah further SE could get into the 1-2 inch range. Going to take a relatively large change given it's only 24 hours away for anyone NW of the city to see much I think. Either way whatever falls is just a "stats padder" as the next system Wednesday looks to be mostly rain right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Everything has been flowing either north or south of Pennsylvania this winter, for the most part. Yet to have a flush hit across the state, and it looks like that trend continues. Unfortunate luck. Things cut to Chicago behind a wave of confluence or get stuck underneath one and are suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 12:29 AM, jwilson said: Everything has been flowing either north or south of Pennsylvania this winter, for the most part. Yet to have a flush hit across the state, and it looks like that trend continues. Unfortunate luck. Things cut to Chicago behind a wave of confluence or get stuck underneath one and are suppressed. Expand My eyes are set on the weekend. Even if we would get snow tomorrow it's all gone after that cutter. So now I'm looking at the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Weekend continues to trend warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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