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Pittsburgh/Western PA Winter 2024-2025 Thread


Rd9108
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So far so good on the pattern progression into the second week of Feb. If it holds there should be some trackable threats in a few days.

-AO, -NAO, -EPO, and maybe even the PV splitting with a piece getting stuck over hudson bay. If its all correct I could see another 4 week plus window. Adjust for seasonal wavelengths shortening and more warmth south adding fuel to storm development and I like our chances to go out with a bang.

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18 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Nice taste of spring today. 61F here.

I find a lover of all things winter weather, the occasional warm day is much more enjoyable especially when a change back to snow threats is on the horizon. It was nice to get outside and take a walk. Now, I'll be good if I don't see anymore days like that until the end of March.

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16 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Wow, a mean at 15-21" area wide!  Never saw that.

Pretty crazy agreement. I would add some caution as several the individual ens members show warm nose scenarios too for the various storms. Not trying to be a downer, but I would expect some snow to mix to rain setups while areas not to far north or east get all or mostly snow. Just mentally prepare for that. If the setup is anywhere near to correct though I feel good we finally get a 5+ storm at least and maybe more if we can get an all or mostly all snow event.

 

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1 hour ago, Burghblizz said:

I have a really anti climatic Winter Storm Watch. Mostly for ice, and probably northern Butler county. I’ll take some front end snow and skip the ice. 

Doesn't look like it should be too big of a threat. I know we had an ice storm back in 2021 or 2022, where we lost power for 16 hours, but the temperatures there only climbed to like 33-35F. This event has unbelievably warm air advecting in, with temperatures likely to climb well into the 50s on Thursday, maybe even some 60F readings south of PIT.

This sounds a little ominous for Saturday night, though. Heavy rain and 32F. I wonder if there will be some more freezing rain in the area.

image.png.ce31e8292d02673bfaba50d847f2a0c0.png

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6 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Pretty crazy agreement. I would add some caution as several the individual ens members show warm nose scenarios too for the various storms. Not trying to be a downer, but I would expect some snow to mix to rain setups while areas not to far north or east get all or mostly snow. Just mentally prepare for that. If the setup is anywhere near to correct though I feel good we finally get a 5+ storm at least and maybe more if we can get an all or mostly all snow event.

 

Of course.  The warm nose scenario looks like a really possibility with the way the storms are angled.

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4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Doesn't look like it should be too big of a threat. I know we had an ice storm back in 2021 or 2022, where we lost power for 16 hours, but the temperatures there only climbed to like 33-35F. This event has unbelievably warm air advecting in, with temperatures likely to climb well into the 50s on Thursday, maybe even some 60F readings south of PIT.

This sounds a little ominous for Saturday night, though. Heavy rain and 32F. I wonder if there will be some more freezing rain in the area.

image.png.ce31e8292d02673bfaba50d847f2a0c0.png

It only takes a light glaze for big problems, but I agree it should be pretty short lived.

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On 2/4/2025 at 11:30 AM, Burghblizz said:

I have a really anti climatic Winter Storm Watch. Mostly for ice, and probably northern Butler county. I’ll take some front end snow and skip the ice. 

Maybe something to keep an eye on for more of an impact, especially if we stay below freezing all day:

Dry weather and cloudy skies continue through the rest of this
afternoon. Light northeast winds and dense cloud cover are
resulting in temperatures trending several degrees below what
was originally progged in model guidance. Will need to keep an
eye on this as it could impact the extent of ice accumulation
late this evening and overnight as low pressure approaches and
rain overspreads the area from the south and west.
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10 hours ago, north pgh said:

Thunderstorm tonight?


 

Definitely heard some thunder around 2:45-ish last night.

Overall, the the SW corner of the state the ice was not a big deal as we expected. Probably pretty dicey earlier in the night, but zero issues driving in at 4:30am. As I hear people talking filtering into the office I keep hearing "What happened to the big ice storm?" lol Where do people hear this stuff? Even the evening news was pretty subdued in terms of impacts.

Looks like a repeat Saturday evening? Beyond that, next week we won't know how the boundary sets up until much closer. Update NY / NE looks to get hammered with multiple systems which may not bode well for us being on the right side of things.

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Canadian has a more interesting evolution out here for next week.

The GFS isn't much, but the GFS has been bad this winter so I've generally ignored it until 3-day leads.

The Euro isn't as amped as either and is probably closer to a real solution, but it's not as cold as the Canadian on the second round so PIT gets warm-tongued.

We'll see what the Euro does at 12Z.  At 6Z it was clearly going to favor the second round like the Canadian, so snow from the first round was relatively minimal.

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2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Get a load of this screw zone.

snku_acc-imp.us_ma.png

Not a fan of the way things seem to be heading, weaker wave early next week that may whiff to the south then the follow-up is stronger and to far NW vs previously the first wave was a stronger and held less energy back for the second.

Obviously nothing is carved in stone, but not a great look either atm.

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2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

All the potential possible but im not sold on the modeled amounts. I guess we shall see but Tuesday already looks like it's trending poorly. 

I guess the good part is it looks like after next week is when the better pattern takes hold so if it doesn't work out there's still opportunities to be had. 18z GFS had two big storms actually hit us and a couple little ones pushing 30+ inches.

image.thumb.png.375ae62eaa43a351be612f23c5e4ce87.png.e866f4e7e77528eafc7bec05a6ee33ca.png

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1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I guess the good part is it looks like after next week is when the better pattern takes hold so if it doesn't work out there's still opportunities to be had. 18z GFS had two big storms actually hit us and a couple little ones pushing 30+ inches.

image.thumb.png.375ae62eaa43a351be612f23c5e4ce87.png.e866f4e7e77528eafc7bec05a6ee33ca.png

Sheesh!  That would be something.

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