Pittsburgh/Western PA Winter 2024-2025 Thread

[Mailman]

Didn't know thunderstorms were on the menu for today.

[PghPirates27]

Dang nice loud thunder here just a few minutes ago.

Edit: lightning and another loud boom.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

So far so good on the pattern progression into the second week of Feb. If it holds there should be some trackable threats in a few days.

-AO, -NAO, -EPO, and maybe even the PV splitting with a piece getting stuck over hudson bay. If its all correct I could see another 4 week plus window. Adjust for seasonal wavelengths shortening and more warmth south adding fuel to storm development and I like our chances to go out with a bang.

[Ahoff]

Well the GFS through the 17th would be a very welcome site. 

[Rd9108]

This is pretty crazy for a mean and all it means is there is gonna be plenty of chances.

[TheClimateChanger]

Nice taste of spring today. 61F here.

[Ahoff]

19 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

This is pretty crazy for a mean and all it means is there is gonna be plenty of chances.

Wow, a mean at 15-21" area wide!  Never saw that.

[Ahoff]

We're back in it baby!

[RitualOfTheTrout]

18 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Nice taste of spring today. 61F here.

I find a lover of all things winter weather, the occasional warm day is much more enjoyable especially when a change back to snow threats is on the horizon. It was nice to get outside and take a walk. Now, I'll be good if I don't see anymore days like that until the end of March.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

16 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Wow, a mean at 15-21" area wide!  Never saw that.

Pretty crazy agreement. I would add some caution as several the individual ens members show warm nose scenarios too for the various storms. Not trying to be a downer, but I would expect some snow to mix to rain setups while areas not to far north or east get all or mostly snow. Just mentally prepare for that. If the setup is anywhere near to correct though I feel good we finally get a 5+ storm at least and maybe more if we can get an all or mostly all snow event.

 

[Burghblizz]

I have a really anti climatic Winter Storm Watch. Mostly for ice, and probably northern Butler county. I’ll take some front end snow and skip the ice. 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, Burghblizz said:

I have a really anti climatic Winter Storm Watch. Mostly for ice, and probably northern Butler county. I’ll take some front end snow and skip the ice. 

Doesn't look like it should be too big of a threat. I know we had an ice storm back in 2021 or 2022, where we lost power for 16 hours, but the temperatures there only climbed to like 33-35F. This event has unbelievably warm air advecting in, with temperatures likely to climb well into the 50s on Thursday, maybe even some 60F readings south of PIT.

This sounds a little ominous for Saturday night, though. Heavy rain and 32F. I wonder if there will be some more freezing rain in the area.

[Ahoff]

6 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Pretty crazy agreement. I would add some caution as several the individual ens members show warm nose scenarios too for the various storms. Not trying to be a downer, but I would expect some snow to mix to rain setups while areas not to far north or east get all or mostly snow. Just mentally prepare for that. If the setup is anywhere near to correct though I feel good we finally get a 5+ storm at least and maybe more if we can get an all or mostly all snow event.

 

Of course.  The warm nose scenario looks like a really possibility with the way the storms are angled.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Doesn't look like it should be too big of a threat. I know we had an ice storm back in 2021 or 2022, where we lost power for 16 hours, but the temperatures there only climbed to like 33-35F. This event has unbelievably warm air advecting in, with temperatures likely to climb well into the 50s on Thursday, maybe even some 60F readings south of PIT.

This sounds a little ominous for Saturday night, though. Heavy rain and 32F. I wonder if there will be some more freezing rain in the area.

It only takes a light glaze for big problems, but I agree it should be pretty short lived.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Of course.  The warm nose scenario looks like a really possibility with the way the storms are angled.

Storm middle of next week looks promising at this range. Actually could use a more northern track but these next two look more wet than frozen for sure.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

On 2/4/2025 at 11:30 AM, Burghblizz said:

I have a really anti climatic Winter Storm Watch. Mostly for ice, and probably northern Butler county. I’ll take some front end snow and skip the ice. 

Maybe something to keep an eye on for more of an impact, especially if we stay below freezing all day:

Dry weather and cloudy skies continue through the rest of this
afternoon. Light northeast winds and dense cloud cover are
resulting in temperatures trending several degrees below what
was originally progged in model guidance. Will need to keep an
eye on this as it could impact the extent of ice accumulation
late this evening and overnight as low pressure approaches and
rain overspreads the area from the south and west.