Rd9108 Posted Friday at 09:16 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:16 PM Well going to take my christmas lights down, but the RGEM held serve for the most part and now the ICON moved west and showed us getting 3 or 4. Very interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted Friday at 10:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:18 PM GFS still needs to move west. If it's going to move it has to tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Friday at 10:22 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 10:22 PM 3 minutes ago, north pgh said: GFS still needs to move west. If it's going to move it has to tonight. It beefed up qpf but it's still east. Long range RAP would be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted Friday at 11:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:18 PM 2 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Well going to take my christmas lights down, but the RGEM held serve for the most part and now the ICON moved west and showed us getting 3 or 4. Very interesting. Canadian models owe us something after all the headfakes showing a big storm over the years only to cave to the no snow models. Time to pay the bill and score a coop maybe? Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 02:38 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:38 AM NAM no Bueno. Looks like most guidance is correcting east. I'm assuming the rgem will show us just on the fringe of the heaviest band later on. RGEM on the other hand hasn't given up and pretty similar to 18z 4-6 type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted Saturday at 01:25 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:25 PM Sleet and zr here currently. Light glaze on the car, pavement seems fine. Expect it will be pretty short lived before plain rain takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted Saturday at 02:06 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:06 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Saturday at 02:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:17 PM Pretty gross out. If the snow pack can hold, and we can maybe get an inch tomorrow we could see that crazy cold. If it doesn’t I’d expect temps to be at least 5 degrees warmer than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 02:25 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:25 PM Guidance still is all over the place I wouldn't be surprised if we get an inch or two or three if everything works out. The snowpack is getting decimated right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 03:08 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:08 PM Lost our best model RGEM caved. Still looks like maybe we can squeak out 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Saturday at 03:19 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:19 PM Plus the next week doesn’t look that great to rebuild, right? Cold but not much precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 03:31 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:31 PM 10 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Plus the next week doesn’t look that great to rebuild, right? Cold but not much precip. No we will be relying on any showers or weak northern stream disturbances that come through the flow. Still too early to go past the arctic invasion. Usually there's systems that form on fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 03:58 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:58 PM Gfs would work. I'm at work so I'm sure ill be looking at the euro in a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted Saturday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:27 PM 56 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: No we will be relying on any showers or weak northern stream disturbances that come through the flow. Still too early to go past the arctic invasion. Usually there's systems that form on fronts. Bring on the clippers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 07:48 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 07:48 PM Fwiw HRRR. Just need to freshen up our snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted Saturday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:02 PM 9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Fwiw HRRR. Just need to freshen up our snow pack. That would be nice, Euro and GFS have us right on the fringe. Another 50 mile NW shift on those two would put most of us into a 2-4 range. This time there isn't a giant vortex or Northern stream interference so maybe we get a continued subtle trend north as we close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 08:13 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 08:13 PM 10 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: That would be nice, Euro and GFS have us right on the fringe. Another 50 mile NW shift on those two would put most of us into a 2-4 range. This time there isn't a giant vortex or Northern stream interference so maybe we get a continued subtle trend north as we close in. Maybe. Warm air always pushes further north right??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 10:01 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 10:01 PM Let's see what happens with nowcasting. We've seen weird things happen. For example our last big storm where that heavier band set up in northern PA. No models had that at all. Im done looking at models for this one and just gonna enjoy the games at work and hopefully we get some snow tomorrow. Who knows maybe we get some sneaky snow showers as well. Regardless this season actually feels like winter for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted Saturday at 11:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:02 PM Snowpack somehow held up today - went from around 5" to probably 1.5" left on the ground, but enough to keep things cold. Some patchy spots where the sun was blazing yesterday, but I'm hopeful that tomorrow will bring fresh new powder on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted Sunday at 12:17 AM Share Posted Sunday at 12:17 AM Down to 31.2 now getting a small snow shower now for the next 15 mins. Nothing sticking but nice to be out of the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Sunday at 01:42 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 01:42 AM Ehh looks like we most likely will get a inch maybe two at most. Oh well, just keep padding the stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted Sunday at 01:43 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:43 AM This “higher end” product is something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Sunday at 01:55 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 01:55 AM 10 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: This “higher end” product is something. I mean sure if the cold front is slower and the wave is fast and I learn how to speak Mandarin then maybe this could happen. Not expecting much but hoping for atleast 2 or 3 for a nice snow pack. I spend too much time at work looking at this shit. This can't be good for my mental health. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted Sunday at 02:47 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:47 AM No way if this storm happened 10 times we would get that outcome lol I feel like the “low end” is about 50% likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted Sunday at 04:54 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:54 AM 3 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Ehh looks like we most likely will get a inch maybe two at most. Oh well, just keep padding the stats. Thats where I'm at, 1-2. Other than helping this Jan with below average for the record books the lack of a decent storm preceding or much if any snow during I'm already sort of looking forward to moderating by next weekend. Usually a true arctic airmass like what is coming has squalls or something when it goes through but not seeing anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted Sunday at 05:11 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:11 AM I’m hoping for an inch or so to cover the slush and then enjoy the cold for a week or so. This is the winter I remember growing up. Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted Sunday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:32 PM Well if radar trends hold it looks like models are going to nail the cutoff pretty well. If we were on the SE edge praying for a hold you know what would have happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted Sunday at 04:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:44 PM 12 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Well if radar trends hold it looks like models are going to nail the cutoff pretty well. If we were on the SE edge praying for a hold you know what would have happened. Mailman and Chalk Hill look to be getting the good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted Sunday at 04:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:46 PM 1 minute ago, Burghblizz said: Mailman and Chalk Hill look to be getting the good stuff 100% puking snow the last hour and half-2” in that time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Sunday at 04:50 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:50 PM 16 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Well if radar trends hold it looks like models are going to nail the cutoff pretty well. If we were on the SE edge praying for a hold you know what would have happened. Would appear so atleast our snow pack held strong and another inch on top will be good with the arctic air coming. We will get our bigger storm this year just gotta be patient. The air is too cold right now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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