Ahoff Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 30 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Yikes euro is barely an inch and it's drier. This one might be over. Only the NAM gives us the goods. Those damn midatlantic weenies win again! I wouldn’t say it’s over, yet. Still a couple days to sort it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: I wouldn’t say it’s over, yet. Still a couple days to sort it out. Just being overdramatic tbh. We've seen enough wild swings with less than 48 to go before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Honestly, if we hit 4” with Sunday-Monday, that’s a win for me. We’ve been severely lacking in that size storm lately. Anything more will be bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 This swath this morning has been on lighter side, but steady. Sitting on about an inch already. Interesting to see how things set up later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Burghblizz said: This swath this morning has been on lighter side, but steady. Sitting on about an inch already. Interesting to see how things set up later. Looks like some more intense stuff starting to fire up near Erie, should be interesting to see how well that translates down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 NAM keeps us close to stay invested but still south. The vort needs to be stronger to fight the confluence. Right now once the vort gets to PA it gets shredded. Apparently the vort will be sampled this evening/tonight officially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Ignoring all the jumps, I think the original, consistent Euro solutions are probably closest to correct in terms of geography. There's likely a question on back-end snows, but those aren't hugely relevant for Pittsburgh, anyway. Because the gradient is so tight, however, this will almost certainly become a nowcasting event to see where the best FGEN sets up. Either side you get divergence and limited snow growth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Also, it seems that solutions a few days out end up verifying more so that the days immediately preceding the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Gfs looks good. Need the euro to come north now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Canadian is around 5. I'll be back later for the Euro to jackpot Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 NWS has the first call through 7am Monday with 5” in Pittsburgh. High end is 8”. Not sure that 7am captures the full storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Canadian is around 5. I'll be back later for the Euro to jackpot Richmond. Pretty much. Euro is still south. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: Pretty much. Euro is still south. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Close enough to keep an eye on. Not expecting a huge changem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 NWS thinks those squalls will make it into our area. Fingers crossed! As of noon, cold front has reached the eastern edge of our CWA and with its passage, the widespread snow has ended. In the wake of the front, snow showers will continue in NW flow as lapse rates steepen. ACARS soundings note 50-100j/kg of CAPE upstream where a band of intense snow has developed over CLE. Visibilities have dropped to 1/4 or less in the band, which has prompted SPS and SQWs. Latest CAMs do suggest this band will make it into our forecast area before gradually weakening as it shifts east. Outside of the band, deep moisture in the DGZ andi instability will maintain convective showers for much of the afternoon. Will leave the remainder of the advisory/warnings asis given the potential impacts in the heavier showers and squalls but also issue short fused products as appropriate for awareness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Close enough to keep an eye on. Not expecting a huge changem It a smidge north from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: It a smidge north from 6z Yep close enough that nowcasting could be different. Hopefully we get more than our biggest last year at 3ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Not a terrible spot to be in 48-72 hours out. I thought yesterday evening things would continue to shift north but that didn't happen. Maybe we can get one final nudge north closer to game time to get us in the goods. Either way a nice wintry day out again like January should be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I can’t count how many times the Euro has jumped 50-100 miles north (to give us slop) within 48 hours. It’s payback time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Squall has arrived! Close to a whiteout. About 2” on the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Squall on my doorstep... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Burghblizz said: I can’t count how many times the Euro has jumped 50-100 miles north (to give us slop) within 48 hours. It’s payback time. It wouldn't shock me if the precip shield ticks North as we close in barring some big change in one of the key players. 18z NAM looks pretty similar to the 12z GFS. Gotta get the Euro more onboard though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 NAM is stronger and a tick better. Gradient is tight. Probably rather be in Morgantown than Cranberry but showing 12-18” 30 miles either side of M/D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: NAM is stronger and a tick better. Gradient is tight. Probably rather be in Morgantown than Cranberry but showing 12-18” 30 miles either side of M/D It didn't go south that's all that matters. See if the gfs improves/holds steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Squall that just came through dumped a very quick and intense 1-1.5” out east here. Enough to finish the job of covering the grass. Probably 2-2.5” here so far today. Definitely over performed my expectations for the day. Got to spend the early afternoon outside with the boys and then come in and enjoy some big bands. Doesn’t get much better of a winter day. I’d love to get similar on Monday, but never want to get my hopes up a couple days before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Whiteout here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Rgem is north. Icon south. Rgem and 3k NAM look good. Would really like for the Euro to get on board and for the gfs to hold steady/improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 447 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2025 OHZ040-041-049-050-059-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-073-077- WVZ001>003-040600- /O.CON.KPBZ.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-250104T1500Z/ Carroll-Columbiana-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Belmont-Mercer-Venango- Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny- Armstrong-Washington-Westmoreland-Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio- Including the cities of Wellsburg, Greensburg, Salem, Monaca, Tionesta, Cadiz, Oil City, Indiana, Ellwood City, Carrollton, East Liverpool, Ford City, Butler, Monessen, Clarion, Follansbee, Hermitage, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Wheeling, Punxsutawney, Martins Ferry, Steubenville, Latrobe, Sharon, Malvern, Washington, Ambridge, Brookville, Lower Burrell, New Kensington, Beaver Falls, New Castle, Grove City, Columbiana, Canonsburg, Aliquippa, Murrysville, Weirton, Franklin, St. Clairsville, and Kittanning 447 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations up to two inches. * WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio, northwest, southwest, and western Pennsylvania, and northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Please report snow or ice accumulations by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPittsburgh. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Rgem is north. Icon south. Rgem and 3k NAM look good. Would really like for the Euro to get on board and for the gfs to hold steady/improve. Maybe the Euro will be the one to cave this time? Seems to be the outlier compared to the others. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The view out my window... This squall is crazy!! 20 minutes later... Still puking snow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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