Rd9108 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Let's hope for a good year. Last year sure was rough. FYI this is my first thread so this could go either way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Looks very likely that 2024 will go into the books as the warmest year on record. December would have to average somewhere in the range of 24-24.5F, or more than 9F below normal, for that not to be the case. The only real question is the margin of victory. A cold December isn’t enough to prevent a record. It would need to be among the coldest of record to not break the record - which would be a massive change from the blowtorch of the first 11 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Looks like we’ll waste this cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 19 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Let's hope for a good year. Last year sure was rough. FYI this is my first thread so this could go either way. Looks like this week is your typical nickel and dime setup. Snow possible most days with Thursday maybe the best chance at something measurable. Should look and feel like winter, so no complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Looks like we’ll waste this cold. Certainly does not look like we will maximize, but for early December its better than 50s. I have pretty low expectations for the winter overall and if we manage 30 inches it will feel like a blockbuster after last year. With it being neutral-ish Enso wise I'm thinking the MJO will be more of a driver in modulating whatever the background state this winter will have. If this early December pattern is a hint to what that state may be there is reason for some optimism. Its likely going to be a battle needing the Northern stream shortwaves to cut underneath as I don't expect much help from the STJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 It was nice waking up to a dusting here and having a dusting north of the city yesterday for getting the tree on the farm. Has felt more winter this week than all of last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Remember all it is only December 2nd. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Guidance seems to all agree on decent energy swinging through Wednesday night into Thursday. The setup looks similar to other frontal type snow bands we’ve seen. Could be a quick 1-2” in the heavier bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 4 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Looks like this week is your typical nickel and dime setup. Snow possible most days with Thursday maybe the best chance at something measurable. Should look and feel like winter, so no complaints. I was hoping for a little snow on Saturday as well. Recent model runs had the system well north of us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 First call for Wednesday is basically nothing. I don't know, seems like 1-2" isn't out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 6 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Certainly does not look like we will maximize, but for early December its better than 50s. I have pretty low expectations for the winter overall and if we manage 30 inches it will feel like a blockbuster after last year. With it being neutral-ish Enso wise I'm thinking the MJO will be more of a driver in modulating whatever the background state this winter will have. If this early December pattern is a hint to what that state may be there is reason for some optimism. Its likely going to be a battle needing the Northern stream shortwaves to cut underneath as I don't expect much help from the STJ. This is of course better than typical early December, just finally get a good airmass and the drought keeps on, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 3 Author Share Posted December 3 2 hours ago, Ahoff said: First call for Wednesday is basically nothing. I don't know, seems like 1-2" isn't out of the question. Weird I figured they would say 1-2 but they aren't bullish on that. Hopefully we see an overperformer. I know it's only December but we are snow starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 20 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Weird I figured they would say 1-2 but they aren't bullish on that. Hopefully we see an overperformer. I know it's only December but we are snow starved. Looks interesting even if snow totals won't be the main story for us. Wish it wasn't happening at night though. low pressure passes to the north, a cold front will cross the region late Wednesday evening and into overnight time period. There may be a brief period of wintry mix south of Pittsburgh before Arctic air overtakes the region. Widespread snow showers and dropping temperatures (by 10 to 15 degrees) are expected between 7pm to 11pm Wednesday. Snow ratios will rapidly increase from 8:1 to 16:1 in 6 hours. Therefore snow character will start as wet and transition into a powder consistency. With enhanced instability ahead of the front, 25J/kg to 50J/kg, snow bands could be could considered "intense" and take on snow squall characteristics. Based on the NAM, the snow squall parameter is maximized between 06Z to 09Z across eastern OH/western PA based on steep low-level lapse rates, strong wind gusts, available instability, and enhanced low-level moisture (70 to 90%) within 0-3km. Short-fused products (i.e. Snow Squall Warnings) may be needed for drivers before or during the morning rush hour. Winter Storm Watches have been issued to cover the areas where confidence is higher in lake effect bands, higher snowfall totals from upsloping, and blowing snow. Given a strong pressure gradient with a potentially closed upper-level low, gusty winds are expected to start Wednesday evening into Thursday with a passing LLJ (50-60kt). The potential peak wind gusts are expected 5pm Wed through 4am Thurs. However, lingering gusts may continue in the higher terrain due to mountain wave activity. Areas that don`t get upgraded into a Winter Storm Warning may need a Wind Advisory to cover the threat of strong wind gusts (46+mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Flash freezing conditions could be an issue, along with the potential squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 14 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Flash freezing conditions could be an issue, along with the potential squalls. I have to be at work 8 Thursday morning. Bottom line if it’s crap and they don’t tell us to delay coming in I’ll call out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Trend is our friend now. Up to 2" expected. Low end is 1, high is 3". Let's keep it going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 My point and click keeps getting less and less lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Gonna have to get lucky with a squall to get some accumulation down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 4 Author Share Posted December 4 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: Gonna have to get lucky with a squall to get some accumulation down here. The first signs of precipitation was a mix. So gonna be interesting to see what if anything accumulating we get here in the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Forecasts are dropping. Trend not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 At this point, I'm rooting for futility. If we get 6 inches of snow or less the rest of December, it will be the least snowy 2-year period on record. The 28.2" from 1880 is only for 1 year, as snowfall records did not exist prior to 1880. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: At this point, I'm rooting for futility. If we get 6 inches of snow or less the rest of December, it will be the least snowy 2-year period on record. The 28.2" from 1880 is only for 1 year, as snowfall records did not exist prior to 1880. Not even the dirty 30s from "dahn" in the city can approach these levels of futility. Truly incredible stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 4 Author Share Posted December 4 Appears the good banding will remain north agh county. Gonna be hard to get anything notable. In positive news the long range looks so volatile that we may see winter weather again before the end of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 21 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Appears the good banding will remain north agh county. Gonna be hard to get anything notable. In positive news the long range looks so volatile that we may see winter weather again before the end of December. I’d bet on severe weather and tornadoes before an advisory level snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 This would work 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 I’m ready for spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 5 Author Share Posted December 5 Yinzers it's official we have a new record. Didn't think it would be possible but Kpitt has officially given up on winter and it's only December 4. Absolutely incredible. As I type this I can hear the wind howling and the pinging starting so the front has arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Thunder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 5 Author Share Posted December 5 3 strikes here!!@ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 5 Author Share Posted December 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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