Pittsburgh/Western PA Winter 2024-2025 Thread

[Rd9108]

Let's hope for a good year. Last year sure was rough. 

FYI this is my first thread so this could go either way. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Looks very likely that 2024 will go into the books as the warmest year on record. December would have to average somewhere in the range of 24-24.5F, or more than 9F below normal, for that not to be the case. The only real question is the margin of victory.

A cold December isn’t enough to prevent a record. It would need to be among the coldest of record to not break the record - which would be a massive change from the blowtorch of the first 11 months.

[Ahoff]

Looks like we’ll waste this cold.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

  On 12/1/2024 at 6:43 PM, Rd9108 said:

Let's hope for a good year. Last year sure was rough. 

FYI this is my first thread so this could go either way. 

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Looks like this week is your typical nickel and dime setup. Snow possible most days with Thursday maybe the best chance at something measurable. Should look and feel like winter, so no complaints.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

  On 12/2/2024 at 1:47 PM, Ahoff said:

Looks like we’ll waste this cold.

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Certainly does not look like we will maximize, but for early December its better than 50s. I have pretty low expectations for the winter overall and if we manage 30 inches it will feel like a blockbuster after last year.

With it being neutral-ish Enso wise I'm thinking the MJO will be more of a driver in modulating whatever the background state this winter will have. If this early December pattern is a hint to what that state may be there is reason for some optimism. Its likely going to be a battle needing the Northern stream shortwaves to cut underneath as I don't expect much help from the STJ.

[Gordo74]

It was nice waking up to a dusting here and having a dusting north of the city yesterday for getting the tree on the farm. Has felt more winter this week than all of last year.

[north pgh]

Remember all it is only December 2nd. 

[CoraopolisWx]

Guidance seems to all agree on decent energy swinging through Wednesday night into Thursday.
The setup looks similar to other frontal type snow bands we’ve seen. 
Could be a quick 1-2” in the heavier bands. 

[TheClimateChanger]

  On 12/2/2024 at 1:49 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Looks like this week is your typical nickel and dime setup. Snow possible most days with Thursday maybe the best chance at something measurable. Should look and feel like winter, so no complaints.

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I was hoping for a little snow on Saturday as well. Recent model runs had the system well north of us though.

[Ahoff]

First call for Wednesday is basically nothing.  I don't know, seems like 1-2" isn't out of the question.

[Ahoff]

  On 12/2/2024 at 3:09 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Certainly does not look like we will maximize, but for early December its better than 50s. I have pretty low expectations for the winter overall and if we manage 30 inches it will feel like a blockbuster after last year.

With it being neutral-ish Enso wise I'm thinking the MJO will be more of a driver in modulating whatever the background state this winter will have. If this early December pattern is a hint to what that state may be there is reason for some optimism. Its likely going to be a battle needing the Northern stream shortwaves to cut underneath as I don't expect much help from the STJ.

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This is of course better than typical early December, just finally get a good airmass and the drought keeps on, lol.

[Rd9108]

  On 12/2/2024 at 10:06 PM, Ahoff said:

First call for Wednesday is basically nothing.  I don't know, seems like 1-2" isn't out of the question.

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Weird I figured they would say 1-2 but they aren't bullish on that. Hopefully we see an overperformer. I know it's only December but we are snow starved. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

  On 12/3/2024 at 12:25 AM, Rd9108 said:

Weird I figured they would say 1-2 but they aren't bullish on that. Hopefully we see an overperformer. I know it's only December but we are snow starved. 

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Looks interesting even if snow totals won't be the main story for us. Wish it wasn't happening at night though.

low pressure passes to the north, a cold front will cross the
region late Wednesday evening and into overnight time period.
There may be a brief period of wintry mix south of Pittsburgh
before Arctic air overtakes the region. Widespread snow showers
and dropping temperatures (by 10 to 15 degrees) are expected
between 7pm to 11pm Wednesday. Snow ratios will rapidly increase
from 8:1 to 16:1 in 6 hours. Therefore snow character will
start as wet and transition into a powder consistency.

With enhanced instability ahead of the front, 25J/kg to 50J/kg,
snow bands could be could considered "intense" and take on snow
squall characteristics. Based on the NAM, the snow squall
parameter is maximized between 06Z to 09Z across eastern
OH/western PA based on steep low-level lapse rates, strong wind
gusts, available instability, and enhanced low-level moisture
(70 to 90%) within 0-3km. Short-fused products (i.e. Snow Squall
Warnings) may be needed for drivers before or during the
morning rush hour.

Winter Storm Watches have been issued to cover the areas where
confidence is higher in lake effect bands, higher snowfall
totals from upsloping, and blowing snow.

Given a strong pressure gradient with a potentially closed
upper-level low, gusty winds are expected to start Wednesday
evening into Thursday with a passing LLJ (50-60kt). The
potential peak wind gusts are expected 5pm Wed through 4am
Thurs. However, lingering gusts may continue in the higher
terrain due to mountain wave activity. Areas that don`t get
upgraded into a Winter Storm Warning may need a Wind Advisory to
cover the threat of strong wind gusts (46+mph)

[CoraopolisWx]

Flash freezing conditions could be an issue, along with the potential squalls. 

[KPITSnow]

  On 12/3/2024 at 9:23 PM, CoraopolisWx said:

Flash freezing conditions could be an issue, along with the potential squalls. 

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I have to be at work 8 Thursday morning. Bottom line if it’s crap and they don’t tell us to delay coming in I’ll call out. 

[Ahoff]

Trend is our friend now.  Up to 2" expected.  Low end is 1, high is 3".  Let's keep it going.

 

[KPITSnow]

My point and click keeps getting less and less lol

[Mailman]

Gonna have to get lucky with a squall to get some accumulation down here.

[Rd9108]

  On 12/4/2024 at 8:36 PM, Mailman said:

Gonna have to get lucky with a squall to get some accumulation down here.

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The first signs of precipitation was a mix. So gonna be interesting to see what if anything accumulating we get here in the metro. 

[Ahoff]

Forecasts are dropping.  Trend not great.

[TheClimateChanger]

At this point, I'm rooting for futility. If we get 6 inches of snow or less the rest of December, it will be the least snowy 2-year period on record. The 28.2" from 1880 is only for 1 year, as snowfall records did not exist prior to 1880.

[TheClimateChanger]

  On 12/4/2024 at 9:39 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

At this point, I'm rooting for futility. If we get 6 inches of snow or less the rest of December, it will be the least snowy 2-year period on record. The 28.2" from 1880 is only for 1 year, as snowfall records did not exist prior to 1880.

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Not even the dirty 30s from "dahn" in the city can approach these levels of futility. Truly incredible stuff.

[Rd9108]

Appears the good banding will remain north agh county. Gonna be hard to get anything notable. In positive news the long range looks so volatile that we may see winter weather again before the end of December.

[KPITSnow]

  On 12/4/2024 at 9:51 PM, Rd9108 said:

Appears the good banding will remain north agh county. Gonna be hard to get anything notable. In positive news the long range looks so volatile that we may see winter weather again before the end of December.

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I’d bet on severe weather and tornadoes before an advisory level snow 

[dj3]

This would work 

[KPITSnow]

I’m ready for spring 

[Rd9108]

Yinzers it's official we have a new record. Didn't think it would be possible but Kpitt has officially given up on winter and it's only December 4. Absolutely incredible. As I type this I can hear the wind howling and the pinging starting so the front has arrived. 

[north pgh]

Thunder!

[Rd9108]

3 strikes here!!@

[Rd9108]

4