mahantango#1 Posted Friday at 10:54 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:54 AM DT is on the ball! FIRST GUESS MAPS ARE HERE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Friday at 11:37 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:37 AM The model differences & swings with the Monday event are exhausting already. Hopefully later today or tomorrow am we will get more of a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted Friday at 11:40 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:40 AM Euro is non event north of turnpike.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Friday at 11:40 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:40 AM First things first with today’s LSV light snow chance. The short term models & Euro like up to 1 inch in many places, with a few lucky spots maybe getting 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Friday at 11:41 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:41 AM 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The model differences & swings with the Monday event are exhausting already. Hopefully later today or tomorrow am we will get more of a consensus. Definitely on a rollercoaster ride at this point. Maybe it's set to derail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Friday at 11:43 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:43 AM Just now, mahantango#1 said: Definitely on a rollercoaster ride at this point. Maybe it's set to derail. The Euro went south, but the NAM, ICON & GFS say otherwise. Still a long way from consensus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Friday at 11:48 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:48 AM 27 when I left the house. I love where I sit for both today’s event and Monday’s, which is absolutely terrifying haha. I’ll be in Harrisburg today so won’t be able to give real time observations from home. Someone on the southern tier is gettin thumped I’m tellin ya, and by thumped I mean 2” lollipops ha. Could come down quick for a couple hours! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Friday at 12:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:04 PM 34 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Euro is non event north of turnpike. . Those folks up there were always fleeting IMO....unless these system ignored the known limitations of multiple of slps and how they react to each other. BUT the Euro has not moved as much as the CMC, UK and GFS over the last week if you throw out the Euro's 0Z Mon run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted Friday at 12:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:11 PM 17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The Euro went south, but the NAM, ICON & GFS say otherwise. Still a long way from consensus. The GFS definitely shifted south from its 0z position, as did the GEFS (probably an even bigger shift in its snow axis). Might not make much of a difference for most currently, but it def does for our northern folks and Voyager. It was probably a bit too far north the last couple runs, but hopefully we can get the Euro to shift back to meet in the middle. Was just looking at the RGEM and that’s pretty low too with it’s heavy snow, but has more of a widespread lighter snow swath. 6z vs 0z GFS op 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CASH_COOP Posted Friday at 12:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:24 PM How things were trending yesterday I thought for sure I’d wake up and find the heaviest axis around I 80 and more mixing down south, but not to be. I’m still being optimistic and hoping that there’s still a 48 hour north adjustment for euro. Have too much time invested to give up 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 12:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:38 PM 22 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: The GFS definitely shifted south from its 0z position, as did the GEFS (probably an even bigger shift in its snow axis). Might not make much of a difference for most currently, but it def does for our northern folks and Voyager. It was probably a bit too far north the last couple runs, but hopefully we can get the Euro to shift back to meet in the middle. Was just looking at the RGEM and that’s pretty low too with it’s heavy snow, but has more of a widespread lighter snow swath. 6z vs 0z GFS op 6z Gem, which you can get on Meteocentre.com, went south and looks like the Rgem. But it does have the large swath of light snows as the Rgem, so there'sthat. 6z and 18z runs of the Gem only go out to 84 hrs like the Rgem so I can't say what the total would be. All I can say is this is a real ball crusher after all those model runs of 4-8", or more. Gotta stop the bleeding at 12z. Gotta...or I get more snow today than Sunday/Monday I fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Friday at 12:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:39 PM Frigid low of 17 this AM. Holding tight with my 2-4" for the LSV...yesterday euphorically posted that big snows were possible if the storm rode through N VA and did not transfer as early, as some models were showing, but the lesser qpf here models are now showing the vort feeling the effects of the NE Canada low which I thought was the most sensical evolution. A transfer to the Carolina coast not out of the question now...think the 18Z GFS showed something similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Friday at 12:45 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:45 PM 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z Gem, which you can get on Meteocentre.com, went south and looks like the Rgem. But it does have the large swath of light snows as the Rgem, so there'sthat. 6z and 18z runs of the Gem only go out to 84 hrs like the Rgem so I can't say what the total would be. All I can say is this is a real ball crusher after all those model runs of 4-8", or more. Gotta stop the bleeding at 12z. Gotta...or I get more snow today than Sunday/Monday I fear. Remember that if this thing goes through Central or Southern VA before going poof to the coast, what qpf we do get will translate well. .2 could easily be 3-4". This does not help those well north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Friday at 12:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:47 PM I think once the actual storm forms & the confluence relaxes slightly, the southern third of PA will still be in for a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 12:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:48 PM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Remember that if this thing goes through Central or Southern VA before going poof to the coast, what qpf we do get will translate well. .2 could easily be 3-4". This does not help those well north though. Absolutely on the ratio potential, but if the trend doesn't stop, .05-.10" qpf is entirely possible. That's what I'm worried about frankly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 12:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:50 PM 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I think once the actual storm forms & the confluence relaxes slightly, the southern third of PA will still be in for a moderate event. Look, don't try to comfort me. I'm miserable physically from covid and I'm miserable mentally from this storm. Will you just let me be as miserable as possible? Lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Friday at 12:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:51 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Absolutely on the ratio potential, but if the trend doesn't stop, .05-.10" qpf is entirely possible. That's what I'm worried about frankly. I think that is too much of a jump to the negative/low end. I am not sure any model has ever shown that little of a shield up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Friday at 12:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:54 PM 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Look, don't try to comfort me. I'm miserable physically from covid and I'm miserable mentally from this storm. Will you just let me be as miserable as possible? Lol If you do not feel comforted by JB's 6-12" with 15" lollipops at I80, nothing is going to help! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted Friday at 12:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:55 PM Hopefully it's just a windshield wiper effect and it comes back north today and tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Friday at 01:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:03 PM This is what happens when I believe and feel confident. Never again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Friday at 01:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:05 PM 1 minute ago, canderson said: This is what happens when I believe and feel confident. Never again! I know a couple guys that need this apparently https://www.redboxrx.com/treatments/paroxetine?utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=dynamic&utm_content=dynamic&utm_term=dynamic&gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQiAst67BhCEARIsAKKdWOleoUq5euYS6PvtRonOlVodBaowTh35LpjMs_GP17StbFAZU8I-UkIaAojLEALw_wcB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Friday at 01:12 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 01:12 PM 56 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: The GFS definitely shifted south from its 0z position, as did the GEFS (probably an even bigger shift in its snow axis). Might not make much of a difference for most currently, but it def does for our northern folks and Voyager. It was probably a bit too far north the last couple runs, but hopefully we can get the Euro to shift back to meet in the middle. Was just looking at the RGEM and that’s pretty low too with it’s heavy snow, but has more of a widespread lighter snow swath. I'm not greedy. I don't care if MD/VA/DC get 12-18 inches, just as long as I can get 6 inches +/-. Give me that and I'll be happy. 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Look, don't try to comfort me. I'm miserable physically from covid and I'm miserable mentally from this storm. Will you just let me be as miserable as possible? Lol I don't need either of those things to make ME miserable. Life's been kicking me in the nuts ever since I came back from AZ. Current dilemma is that I need to drive an automatic truck due to shoulder issues, but have to go back in a manual because the guy who drives the truck I've BEEN using comes back from medical leave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Friday at 01:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:14 PM 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Look, don't try to comfort me. I'm miserable physically from covid and I'm miserable mentally from this storm. Will you just let me be as miserable as possible? Lol Hope you feel Better asap. Everyone is sick - hospitals over the weekend were on diversion status due to capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 01:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:16 PM 20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If you do not feel comforted by JB's 6-12" with 15" lollipops at I80, nothing is going to help! And he'll probably hold onto that forecast well past the time it's apparent that it will fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Friday at 01:18 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 01:18 PM 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Hope you feel Better asap. Everyone is sick - hospitals over the weekend were on diversion status due to capacity. Yes. Sorry @mitchnick. I should have also said that I hope you feel better soon. Being sick sucks. Luckily, I've been able to (so far) avoid any of the bugs that have been hitting so many folks lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 01:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:18 PM 1 minute ago, canderson said: Hope you feel Better asap. Everyone is sick - hospitals over the weekend were on diversion status due to capacity. Yeah, I'm lucky. My daughter is a nurse at the hospital, and she said that they've been getting patients with blood clots caused by covid. Hopefully I don't develop those. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Friday at 01:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:19 PM 12z HRRR has the radar filling in over our area from about 1-4 this afternoon. Let's see who gets lucky. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Friday at 01:20 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 01:20 PM Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: 12z HRRR has the radar filling in over our area from about 1-4 this afternoon. Let's see who gets lucky. I haven't gotten lucky in years. Why start now...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Friday at 01:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:28 PM Light snow should arrive from west to east across Chester and Berks counties during the 2pm hour this afternoon. The timing is not great as the steadiest snow will fall during rush hour. There should be at most an inch or so over the area. We turn colder this weekend with temperatures remaining below freezing for at least the next week. The next winter event looks like it will arrive overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Most of the ensemble models keep the more significant snow south of the Mason Dixon Line. That said most areas will see at least a couple inches with more as you go south in Chester County toward Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Friday at 01:29 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:29 PM 7 minutes ago, Voyager said: I haven't gotten lucky in years. Why start now...lol No time like the present Voyager! Also, Tamaqua hammered Schuylkill Haven in wrestling last night sooooooo there's that haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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