Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Voyager]

15 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Somehow the euro has been pretty rock steady. Can't rule out a move north but looks like PA border is where the heaviest will set up. 

Still sitting on the fringe in my backyard on the Euro. The others were a bit better for me.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Voyager said:

Still sitting on the fringe in my backyard on the Euro. The others were a bit better for me.

Here is the Euro from 3 days ago

 

[Rd9108]

Just now, Voyager said:

Still sitting on the fringe in my backyard on the Euro. The others were a bit better for me.

The fact that I'll be at work Monday makes me believe it will overperform and I'll be dealing with accidents and shoveling out hydrants all day.

[Voyager]

22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Here is the Euro from 3 days ago

 

That would be sweet, but I doubt anything close to that happens.

[WmsptWx]

Goodbye, Georgia. 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Goodbye, Georgia. 

Acc lite 

[MAG5035]

I like where the majority of our subforum sits for this event. Given the setup downstream there’s really only so much more this thing can trend north IMO. Our wave tomorrow, which blows up off the coast and ends up being the deep 50/50 low that forces the trajectory of the main system flat, additionally brings in deep reinforcing cold air to be in place preceding. Even the GFS keeps surface temps about 25-26ºF at best during the storm in the LSV, with the Euro maybe a degree or two colder. It’s no blizzard of 96 or anything, but certainly not a marginal setup temp wise. Temps on up the column are plenty cold as well. 

I’m not currently worried about any meaningful mixing in PA. DC perhaps, but not after they likely see their biggest snowfall of the last few years. Even there I think the column mostly holds. Worst case is if this trends towards an ICON type track is some mixed for a time along the M/D, but probably with sleet as the dominant mix type. 

Rough thoughts on accums right now would be most of PA sees 1-2” with solid advisory I-80 south and the axis of 6”+ residing somewhere between the M/D line and the turnpike with the bottom two tiers of counties in good position for potential warning snows. I think the ceiling east of the mountains is a 6-10” type event for the most part, with bigger totals in the Laurels and/or western MD Alleghenies. 

[MAG5035]

11 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Goodbye, Georgia. 

Ouch lol, completes the sweep of all four bye week teams.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Ouch lol, completes the sweep of all four bye week teams.SE

SEC ya later.  UM beats High Tide too. 

[paweather]

9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I like where the majority of our subforum sits for this event. Given the setup downstream there’s really only so much more this thing can trend north IMO. Our wave tomorrow, which blows up off the coast and ends up being the deep 50/50 low that forces the trajectory of the main system flat, additionally brings in deep reinforcing cold air to be in place preceding. Even the GFS keeps surface temps about 25-26ºF at best during the storm in the LSV, with the Euro maybe a degree or two colder. It’s no blizzard of 96 or anything, but certainly not a marginal setup temp wise. Temps on up the column are plenty cold as well. 

I’m not currently worried about any meaningful mixing in PA. DC perhaps, but not after they likely see their biggest snowfall of the last few years. Even there I think the column mostly holds. Worst case is if this trends towards an ICON type track is some mixed for a time along the M/D, but probably with sleet as the dominant mix type. 

Rough thoughts on accums right now would be most of PA sees 1-2” with solid advisory I-80 south and the axis of 6”+ residing somewhere between the M/D line and the turnpike with the bottom two tiers of counties in good position for potential warning snows. I think the ceiling east of the mountains is a 6-10” type event for the most part, with bigger totals in the Laurels and/or western MD Alleghenies. 

Thanks Mag! 

[WmsptWx]

That wind is gnarly right now and it is miserable. Dogs need to learn to use the shitter.

[canderson]

Really liking where MDT sits for this Sunday night/Monday event. 
 

Also like when Kirby Smart loses because he’s a despicable human.  

[Caveman]

Many of you are obviously savy to the college football game, but the ND-PSU rivalry is huge!  Both teams travel very well so Miami will be a hoot next week!  Not that it matters too much, but the GFS progged temps for gametime afternoon.

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Really liking where MDT sits for this Sunday night/Monday event. 
 

Also like when Kirby Smart loses because he’s a despicable human.  

Yeah we are in a good spot. Why do you not like Kirby?

[Itstrainingtime]

37 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I like where the majority of our subforum sits for this event. Given the setup downstream there’s really only so much more this thing can trend north IMO. Our wave tomorrow, which blows up off the coast and ends up being the deep 50/50 low that forces the trajectory of the main system flat, additionally brings in deep reinforcing cold air to be in place preceding. Even the GFS keeps surface temps about 25-26ºF at best during the storm in the LSV, with the Euro maybe a degree or two colder. It’s no blizzard of 96 or anything, but certainly not a marginal setup temp wise. Temps on up the column are plenty cold as well. 

I’m not currently worried about any meaningful mixing in PA. DC perhaps, but not after they likely see their biggest snowfall of the last few years. Even there I think the column mostly holds. Worst case is if this trends towards an ICON type track is some mixed for a time along the M/D, but probably with sleet as the dominant mix type. 

Rough thoughts on accums right now would be most of PA sees 1-2” with solid advisory I-80 south and the axis of 6”+ residing somewhere between the M/D line and the turnpike with the bottom two tiers of counties in good position for potential warning snows. I think the ceiling east of the mountains is a 6-10” type event for the most part, with bigger totals in the Laurels and/or western MD Alleghenies. 

So no 15" amounts east of the mountains?

LOL Joe B. He once was very, very good.

Many, many years ago.

[canderson]

10 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yeah we are in a good spot. Why do you not like Kirby?

His complete lack of control over his program. Google Georgia football driving. 

Hw also is the biggest whiner I’ve ever seen as a head coach. It works for him but holy god it’s miserably annoying. 

[WmsptWx]

I'll give Kirby Smart this: When I learned yesterday that the game was postponed, I just assumed two or more Georgia players would have collected DUIs or public drunkenness charges. Surprised that didn't happen. Georgia isn't quite Baylor "lack of institutional control under Art Briles," but it's close.

[paweather]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

His complete lack of control over his program. Google Georgia football driving. 

Hw also is the biggest whiner I’ve ever seen as a head coach. It works for him but holy god it’s miserably annoying. 

Yeah I knew players were getting into trouble. That’s one difference between him and Saban

[WmsptWx]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Yeah I knew players were getting into trouble. That’s one difference between him and Saban

Yeah. Saban was a dictator that was actually able to keep his shitheads in line. Kinda like Saddam Hussein. 

 

Kirby Smart is a dictator who has control over nothing. Kinda like Bashar al-Assad.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here’s CTP’s latest for tomorrow’s appetizer light event.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z 3k NAM for tomorrow.

[paweather]

11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z 3k NAM for tomorrow.

Thoughts on Monday? 6-10”

[Blizzard of 93]

13 minutes ago, paweather said:

Thoughts on Monday? 6-10”

Confidence is increasing that at least a solid Advisory or low end Warning level event could be on the way for us in the LSV.

I think my “first call” for the LSV would be 3 to 6 inches with lollipops of 8. 
If the recent trends of the models continue to improve through tomorrow, I could see bumping up if needed.

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Confidence is increasing that at least a solid Advisory or low end Warning level event could be on the way for us in the LSV.

I think my “first call” for the LSV would be 3 to 6 inches with lollipops of 8. 
If the recent trends of the models continue to improve through tomorrow, I could see bumping up if needed.

I think 3-6" is quite reasonable. I wouldn't hedge any higher until there's evidence of such later Saturday.

[paweather]

10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Confidence is increasing that at least a solid Advisory or low end Warning level event could be on the way for us in the LSV.

I think my “first call” for the LSV would be 3 to 6 inches with lollipops of 8. 
If the recent trends of the models continue to improve through tomorrow, I could see bumping up if needed.

Yeah I’m likely way too high in totals!

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the end of the 0z NAM as the storm gets underway in our region early Monday.

[AccuChris]

0z NAM looking juicy at hour 84


.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, AccuChris said:

0z NAM looking juicy at hour 84


.

Mix line is a bit close.  Need a transfer.  Lol

[Ruin]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Mix line is a bit close.  Need a transfer.  Lol

I thought we were not getting a transfer now its just going straight to the east  out ots?

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Ruin said:

I thought we were not getting a transfer now its just going straight to the east  out ots?

It was still transferring on most suites just later than it had been.  If it were to ride the m/d line and not transfer, I think a lot a Southern PA would change to ice.    If it runs through VA then stop the transfer all ya want.