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Central PA Winter 2024/2025


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8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I just passed out when I saw this…Lol!

The GFS and Icon both hold onto the primary longer IMO.  If that happens then we are all in the game for 6-12 with JB Lollipops.  Not that it is a given yet but the longer transfer delays, the more lift we bring into our hood.    If this is not a real Miller B then it is going to wallop us based on these runs.   I keep forgetting these Kuch maps include any snow tomorrow per the GFS.   King Icon leading the way? 

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5 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Lol after all the talk avout the cold surpressing this I'd frigging laugh 

Well to clarify, when you say cold suppressing.... it is other features on the map actually.    I am not sure anyone here or in any thread fully understands it but in the case the low (bowling ball) coming from the west is in bullying its way to relevance longer which in turn brings more of a SE flow and moisture tap into much more of PA instead of it giving up to the coastal earlier.   It is still being blocked from cutting to our west but something changed to allow it to go quite a bit further East than progged just 24-48 hours ago.  Some models like the UK foretold of this possibility.  

 

I did not believe it and it still may be folly but cannot ignore it at this point. 

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Well to clarify, when you say cold suppressing.... it is other features on the map actually.    I am not sure anyone here or in any thread fully understands it but in the case the low (bowling ball) coming from the west is in bullying its way to relevance longer which in turn brings more of a SE flow and moisture tap into much more of PA instead of it giving up to the coastal earlier.   It is still being blocked from cutting to our west but something changed to allow it to go quite a bit further East than progged just 24-48 hours ago.  Some models like the UK foretold of this possibility.  
 
I did not believe it and it still may be folly but cannot ignore it at this point. 

Taking longer to transfer. Still runs into that block as you can see snow in NYC did not go up dramatically.


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4 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Taking longer to transfer. Still runs into that block as you can see snow in NYC did not go up dramatically.


.

Yep, it is all about the transfer IMO.    I mean it is an M/D runner.  If it never transfers I turn into rain here.   The models have been so consistent on a transfer....now a little bit of doubt. 

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep, it is all about the transfer IMO.    I mean it is an M/D runner.  If it never transfers I turn into rain here.   The models have been so consistent on a transfer....now a little bit of doubt. 

One of the board's very best (CoastalWx) shared in the MA thread in a few minutes ago that he favors the jackpot to be along the M/D line...

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13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep, it is all about the transfer IMO.    I mean it is an M/D runner.  If it never transfers I turn into rain here.   The models have been so consistent on a transfer....now a little bit of doubt. 

 

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep, it is all about the transfer IMO.    I mean it is an M/D runner.  If it never transfers I turn into rain here.   The models have been so consistent on a transfer....now a little bit of doubt. 

Prior to 2016 have we ever seen a transfer work out any where close to that one?

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