Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Yardstickgozinya]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Right now I am going with 1-3" on non road surfaces over here.  More likely 1 than 3. 

 lightning density map showing anything for tomorrow?

[Yardstickgozinya]

2 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

 lightning density map showing anything for tomorrow?

If it is it might be a way to sniff out tomorrow's winners early?

[Itstrainingtime]

36 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

 

Who is this person yinz speak of?

"Direct Weather" - You Tube account. All video titles are hyperbole. Just look at 5-6 of the latest video uploads. 

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

 lightning density map showing anything for tomorrow?

Nada on HRRR

[Yardstickgozinya]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nada on HRRR

Thanks for checking Bubbler.

[canderson]

35 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

The cold and wind sucks. There. I said it.

Saturday will be much colder and windier, so there's that. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

"Direct Weather" - You Tube account. All video titles are hyperbole. Just look at 5-6 of the latest video uploads. 

Mitch West seems to be a little more responsible with his wording then some of the other guys on the platform.  Youtube is becoming a major problem and it transcends just politics. 

[AccuChris]

18z HRRR even more slightly amped for tomorrows sneaky snow


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[WmsptWx]

3 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

18z HRRR even more slightly amped for tomorrows sneaky snow


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I'll take this.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

18z HRRR even more slightly amped for tomorrows sneaky snow


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The HRRR is really liking a baby version of RI as the energy gets closer to the coast. 

[CASH_COOP]

LWX hoisted advisories for 1-2” friday

[AccuChris]

18z 3km NAM finally catching on to something happening tomorrow


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[Superstorm]

The HRRR is really liking a baby version of RI as the energy gets closer to the coast. 

Wonder if inverted trough?


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[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Wonder if inverted trough?


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Maybe but the 500H map seems to indicate almsot a pass of something.   Maybe it does that with an inverted as well?

 

 

[Superstorm]

Maybe but the 500H map seems to indicate almsot a pass of something.   Maybe it does that with an inverted as well?
 
 

Yeah, you’re right. Looks like strong vort pass.


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[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Yeah, you’re right. Looks like strong vort pass.


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It is not as obvious on the latest run but on the 6Z run it looks like it was closing off as if it was trying to take over from the coastal!  LOL.  It actually drops to 1006 in a later panel...VERY weak. 

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

18Z 84HR Nam

 

[mahantango#1]

SCHEDULE OF  WXRISK FORECAST MAPS FOR JAN 5-6  EVENT

 (clients will get these maps SEVERAL  hours earlier  

FIRST  GUESS MAP  ..... Thursday 11pm     
FIRST  CALL  MAP  .…  Saturday 1am
LAST   CALL  MAP……. Sunday 10am

[AccuChris]

Excellent forecast discussion this afternoon from CTP concerning tomorrows snow event and Mondays. Very transparent and honest regarding the difficulty in both events. They like 1-2” tomorrow and likely 3-5” Monday with a current 25% chance of a widespread 5”+ amounts Monday

“.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Main conversation and consternation by the dayshift was
centered around the possible/expected precip and what impacts it
will have on the area on Friday.

Newest guidance from meso models and ensembles has brought some
clarity, but only for the expected precip/snowfall across the
southern third of the area Fri aftn. The late aftn and very
early evening hours (rush) are the most concerning of all. HRRR
and fine mesh NAM output make a burst of heavy precip, most
likely snow at the intensities they are predicting, for places
mainly S of the PA Turnpike. However, the temps will be marginal
at first in the valleys of the Lower Susq for accums to occur
during mid-late day. The interesting hours appear to be 3-6PM
when the low-mid level frontogenesis increase and some meager
CAPE bubbles up. The SNSQ parameter is low during this time
frame. It may be more of a CSI-banded feature that occurs as
the strongest forcing moves thru - the sfc pres drops ~9mb as it
crosses far srn PA on Fri.

Whether it be SQ or CSI band, the precip appears as a relatively
thin band (40mi?) oriented N-S. This could spell a very brief
(30-45 min) period of heavier precip which would likely be snow
as the intensity peaks, even where the temps are initially above
freezing. This temp fluctuation/drop could spell more of a worry
for the roads to ice up as the melted snow freezes up with a
cooldown below freezing during the heaviest snow rates.

While accums may only be an inch or so, and generally sub-advy
(advy amounts are generally >=2" for the SErn cos), the
possibility of a quick inch and the temp drop may spell
commute/travel trouble for the metro areas, esp along and S of
Route 30 and east of I-81. At this point, we`ll hold off on an
advy due to the lack of 2"+ area-wide signals, and expected
brevity of the heaviest snow. This may be better handled by SQWs
than a broad advy. But, we`ll continue to weigh these factors
and may issue an advy in due time. The precip/snow should be
off to the east around 6-7 PM.”

“Attention then turns to a larger low pressure system moving
east out of the Four Corners region of the Western US, set to
impact parts of the Eastern US Sunday night into Monday. Latest
model consensus tracks the low across the Carolinas, certainly
putting central PA on the cold side of the storm, but the
question will be how far north moisture will make it. It is
worth noting that most long range models keep the wave pretty
flat as it approaches the coast, with little or no strengthening.

Ensemble guidance is relatively tightly clustered, given this
event is still out on Day 5. Cluster analysis reveals that the
most likely scenario, represented by 75% of ensemble members,
keeps the wave between the trough approaching from Mississippi
Valley, the ridge over New England, and the deeper trough over
the Canadian Maritimes (which has origins in Friday`s clipper
system) on the flatter side, yielding less moisture advection
and lower snow totals, with accums ranging from an inch or 2
along I-80 to 3-5 inches along the southern tier.

The worst case (snowiest) scenario is shown by about 25% of
ensemble members (mostly GFS/Canadian members with very little
representation from the European ensemble system). In the
snowier solution, the wave packet is more amplified, allowing
moisture to advect farther northward and jet forcing to be
stronger. This could force the heaviest snow axis to land within
our CWA. In this case, most places south of I-80 would pick up
5+ inches of snow. Remember, according to the ensemble guidance,
the lower- snow scenario is 3x as likely!

All things considered, PoPs (all snow) were raised Sunday night
into early Monday, with snow likely winding down through the
latter half of Monday. This storm is still completely outside
the range of deterministic QPF and snow forecasts.”


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[Yardstickgozinya]

Mood flakes here in New Cumberland. 

[Bubbler86]

Icon a smidge North at 72. 

[Ruin]

Snow flurries atm temp dropped 35 to 33 winds are about 15 to 25 with gusts 35

[Bubbler86]

Heavy snow through the SW 1/3 of PA at 84 on the Icon.  2MB lower and still a bit north from 12Z.   Yikes, at 90 Mix line is coming into PA.   A disaster for those south of us. 

[Bubbler86]

Icon with a MIC drop.  Attacks the block

 

 

Marysville Webcam watching the Icon

 

(He is ringing a bell you dirty bastards) 

 

[Voyager]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Icon with a MIC drop.  Attacks the block

 

 

Mic drop? More like a jaw drop. Thing is could it verify, or is it a blip?

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Mic drop? More like a jaw drop. Thing is could it verify, or is it a blip?

Not sure why it is attacking the pseudo 50/50 low like that.    That low has not changed position much from the last few runs and the kicker to its west is even farther away than some runs where the Icon forced this south of us.  So no phasing IMO.     Warm air from the SE is punching in much more easily and moisture is spreading much farther north.    I mix on the Icon. 

[Bubbler86]

18Z GFS a bit souther with the feature for tomorrow...where a front of an actual forming vort.

 

[canderson]

Snowing in the city 

[Bubbler86]

Not sure what the PBP in the MA is seeing but the GFS made a substantial move North with the fgen snows. Coastal influence into Tue.    Sort of backs the Icons move but not quite as drastic.

[Bubbler86]