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Central PA Winter 2024/2025


Voyager
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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z Canadian shows a solid Advisory event this run for the LSV & more out towards @Bubbler86 & @MAG5035

It wouldn’t take much for a slight bump to the north to get more of CTP into the better goods if the confluence eases just a bit.

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We need the infamous north trend.

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Last drink for me was 7/17/1994. Was much younger (obviously) and far more stupid in making decisions and got carried away one night. I swore right then and there, never again. Over 30 years sober and I don't miss any of it at all. My wife has a beer or 2 now and then and that doesn't even phase me. 

Not admonishing anyone here, please understand that. My decision was a direct result of my own indiscretions.

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Last drink for me was 7/17/1994. Was much younger (obviously) and far more stupid in making decisions and got carried away one night. I swore right then and there, never again. Over 30 years sober and I don't miss any of it at all. My wife has a beer or 2 now and then and that doesn't even phase me. 

Not admonishing anyone here, please understand that. My decision was a direct result of my own indiscretions.

Good for you Training. I mean that honestly. Takes real discipline to do that. I admire your conviction. Much respect. Alcohol is not for everyone. 

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13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Last drink for me was 7/17/1994. Was much younger (obviously) and far more stupid in making decisions and got carried away one night. I swore right then and there, never again. Over 30 years sober and I don't miss any of it at all. My wife has a beer or 2 now and then and that doesn't even phase me. 

Not admonishing anyone here, please understand that. My decision was a direct result of my own indiscretions.

Good for you - a definite bragworthy thing you have done! 

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12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Last drink for me was 7/17/1994. Was much younger (obviously) and far more stupid in making decisions and got carried away one night. I swore right then and there, never again. Over 30 years sober and I don't miss any of it at all. My wife has a beer or 2 now and then and that doesn't even phase me. 

Not admonishing anyone here, please understand that. My decision was a direct result of my own indiscretions.

I ain't had a drink in like, idk, probably two years? I was never a heavy drinker. I would get tanked every so often but I can probably count the number of times I've been drunk in my entire life with both hands. Just never really liked the feeling after the initial buzz. 

 

I got hammered February 5, 2010. Shoveling my car out from two plus feet of snow was not a fun morning.

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1 minute ago, Storm Clouds said:

Ugh this coming storm is going to be so painful. I hate seeing all the models showing a screw job for us when MD cashes in. Even the Ukie now came way south and is in line with the other models. Don’t have a good feeling about this one…

Long way to go. That was a crazy swing south by the Ukie in one model run.

We don’t need much of a push from most Op run guidance to get into the decent stuff in the LSV.

Either way, I wouldn’t mind even a couple inches of snow if we end up getting fringed. Whatever we get should stick around for awhile.

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33 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z Canadian shows a solid Advisory event this run for the LSV & more out towards @Bubbler86 & @MAG5035

It wouldn’t take much for a slight bump to the north to get more of CTP into the better goods if the confluence eases just a bit.

IMG_8234.png

IMG_8235.png

IMG_8236.png

On mobile so not posting over but that cut off shown on the UK, regardless of where, as is how I personally see this playing out if a sip does attack the dome.

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25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Last drink for me was 7/17/1994. Was much younger (obviously) and far more stupid in making decisions and got carried away one night. I swore right then and there, never again. Over 30 years sober and I don't miss any of it at all. My wife has a beer or 2 now and then and that doesn't even phase me. 

Not admonishing anyone here, please understand that. My decision was a direct result of my own indiscretions.

I have an occasional beer or glass of wine, but am 99% alcohol free. I'm prone to wicked hangovers, and one day decided it wasn't worth the pain the next day. I don't miss it one bit 

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

On mobile so not posting over but that cut off shown on the UK, regardless of where, as is how I personally see this playing out if a sip does attack the dome.

Agreed, 50 or so miles. will likely have a large difference in snow amounts depending on where the cutoff sets up. Lots of runs to go until that is determined.

Heck, we are a couple of days away from solid NAM & short range model forecasts.

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2 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

Why are York and Lancaster counties always in like 6 different shades of QPF colors for every single winter storm? Like I can’t make this shit up! :gun_bandana:

Some of it is SW air delivery.  I have the same "issue" over here in Franklin.  Where I see those 5 shades in one county it has frequently been in areas that change over quickly with SW intrusion. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah not a bad set of moves.  As cold is often over modelled, it wouldnt surprise if we see a further adjustment north......

or is that the weenie in me coming out?

 

Happy New Years to all.

Confluence can weaken as we approach events. That's not a weenie statement. It has both helped and hurt us in the past. This could go further south or come back north. Pretty sure it won't go down exactly as depicted now. Lots of time to go.

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Confluence can weaken as we approach events. That's not a weenie statement. It has both helped and hurt us in the past. This could go further south or come back north. Pretty sure it won't go down exactly as depicted now. Lots of time to go.

Sure can.  IMO biggest takeaway is we are getting into a new pattern, and one we've not seen in a while.  Might have to dust the books off as to how things can and do evolve w/ setups like this.  We've grown so accustomed to shoehornin our way into snows, antecedent cold blah blah blah.  Now we've got cold where we want it and just need to see where the vort pops and start looking at 500/700 maps to see where this puppy goes.

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