CASH_COOP Posted Wednesday at 01:45 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:45 PM Day 5 qpf looks healthy. @MillvilleWxat wpc needs to come up with a better map for day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Wednesday at 01:47 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:47 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Wednesday at 01:47 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:47 PM CTP gung ho on big winds all day and into tomorrow. Sustained west winds 25 to 35mph with gusts up to 50mph appear likely for most of the area, with isolated gusts over 55mph possible downwind of the Laurels. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 01:51 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:51 PM 29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I would put the big snows Fredericksburg and East right now if doing a forecast that far out. Big as in 6-10". Right now, that sounds right. But with 4-5 days to go and ensembles moving north (though not posted, 6z Gefs moved north and had our latitude as bullseye), much can change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Wednesday at 01:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:53 PM 5 minutes ago, canderson said: CTP gung ho on big winds all day and into tomorrow. Sustained west winds 25 to 35mph with gusts up to 50mph appear likely for most of the area, with isolated gusts over 55mph possible downwind of the Laurels. Please keep those winds down in the Burg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 01:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:53 PM Just now, mitchnick said: Right now, that sounds right. But with 4-5 days to go and ensembles moving north (though not posted, 6z Gefs moved north and had our latitude as bullseye), much can change. Definitely can change, I am posting what I see currently as well as a bit of my gut. I do not see the 6Z GEFS having a bullseye over us though. That qpf map I posted above was from 6Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Wednesday at 02:03 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 02:03 PM 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just model disco. I do not play the game of wishcasting. 2-4" of snow would still be nice it if happened. I know you don't. I just couldn't resist making a pun post... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CASH_COOP Posted Wednesday at 02:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:10 PM @mitchnickhows the 84hr nam looking ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Wednesday at 02:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:21 PM 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Right now, that sounds right. But with 4-5 days to go and ensembles moving north (though not posted, 6z Gefs moved north and had our latitude as bullseye), much can change. I see what you mean with the 6z GEFS & 6z EPS getting the LSV into the main area of precip. We are very much in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Wednesday at 02:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:21 PM Low of 42 with .43” of rainfall. A lot of time still left before this event. Big changes wouldn’t be shocking. Big day of college football ahead. Does my wife know I plan on laying on the couch all day long? Doubtful. Will this go over like a lead balloon? Likely. Will I be served divorce papers? Stay tuned to find out! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Wednesday at 02:27 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:27 PM 10 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Low of 42 with .43” of rainfall. A lot of time still left before this event. Big changes wouldn’t be shocking. Big day of college football ahead. Does my wife know I plan on laying on the couch all day long? Doubtful. Will this go over like a lead balloon? Likely. Will I be served divorce papers? Stay tuned to find out! You got to discuss with your wife why college football is detrimental to her survival in 2025. After you explain the reasoning behind it, she'll be fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted Wednesday at 02:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:28 PM Definitely like what I see from the models.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:33 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:35 PM 23 minutes ago, CASH_COOP said: @mitchnickhows the 84hr nam looking ? I detect some meteorological sarcasm in the question. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:37 PM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: That clipper part of the problem as it merges with the storm offshore to potentially shunt our snow threat. So do me a favor and never remind me of it again! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Wednesday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:39 PM 12 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Definitely like what I see from the models. . North trend is evident on the EPS. Hopefully it continues. 6z top 0z bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:42 PM 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That clipper part of the problem as it merges with the storm offshore to potentially shunt our snow threat. So do me a favor and never remind me of it again! The 1/3 or 4 threat is the one some keep trying to bring back in the MA. But yea, spacing here is everything as I think many agree on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:46 PM 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I detect some meteorological sarcasm in the question. Lol The 84 hour Nam's surface chart is not that much different than the EC. Low is a few MB's weaker but in a similar position. The high coming out of Canada is pressing a slight bit more. The cold press from the SLP in NE Canada and Block up there is a bit higher as the 540 line is down in Central NC instead of SC. But no way to extrapolate much from this IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Wednesday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:51 PM Happy New Year to all! A wind advisory remains in effect till 10pm tonight. Temperatures today will be near normal (low to mid 40's) before falling later in the day. We finished 2024 as the 3rd warmest year in my 21 years of observations here in East Nantmeal. I will update with the annual climate summary for the rest of Chester County later. Temperatures both Thursday and Friday will be in the low to mid 30's. We could see a period of light snow on Friday PM. Temps remain below freezing this weekend with snow chances increasing by Sunday night into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 03:02 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:02 PM 19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: North trend is evident on the EPS. Hopefully it continues. 6z top 0z bottom Someone who saw the individual members said the the 6z run lost the misses to the south of DC/BWI and increased misses to the north of them. That's good for us if it was only a day or 2 out, but concerning at 4-5 days as we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted Wednesday at 03:12 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:12 PM 1 hour ago, canderson said: CTP gung ho on big winds all day and into tomorrow. Sustained west winds 25 to 35mph with gusts up to 50mph appear likely for most of the area, with isolated gusts over 55mph possible downwind of the Laurels. Has been really gusty here all morning so far! happy new year fellas 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Wednesday at 03:17 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:17 PM Winds already in the mid 40s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 03:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:21 PM Snow is snow. Both Nam and Rgem showing a "bullseye" for the southern tier late Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Wednesday at 03:23 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:23 PM 1 hour ago, CASH_COOP said: Day 5 qpf looks healthy. @MillvilleWxat wpc needs to come up with a better map for day 6. Hey Cashtown! Sadly, I don’t work the Medium Range desk, so I will not be producing any of the QPF maps between D4-7. Hopefully we see a nice uptick as we move closer in time. D1-3 are when I have the ability to make the QPF maps, and that will actually be the case this weekend as I work the QPF desk on night shifts. Catch my work then 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CASH_COOP Posted Wednesday at 03:29 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:29 PM 15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Hey Cashtown! Sadly, I don’t work the Medium Range desk, so I will not be producing any of the QPF maps between D4-7. Hopefully we see a nice uptick as we move closer in time. D1-3 are when I have the ability to make the QPF maps, and that will actually be the case this weekend as I work the QPF desk on night shifts. Catch my work then At game time is when it counts anyway! Thanks for your contribution to the forum. I always look forward to your analysis Dont forget the south Mountain enhancement jack area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Wednesday at 03:45 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 03:45 PM 25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Snow is snow. Both Nam and Rgem showing a "bullseye" for the southern tier late Friday. Isn't that Friday snow part of what's screwing up Monday? If so than I want no part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Wednesday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:03 PM 45 minutes ago, canderson said: Winds already in the mid 40s That’s great and all but when does a man start drinking when his team plays at 1pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Wednesday at 04:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:10 PM 40 minutes ago, CASH_COOP said: At game time is when it counts anyway! Thanks for your contribution to the forum. I always look forward to your analysis Dont forget the south Mountain enhancement jack area I actually will purposefully add more value to that area and other types across the CONUS the last 30 min of my forecast time frame before the deadline. It adds a lot of value to the forecast. I’ll be keeping tabs on that spot for sure with this setup! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CASH_COOP Posted Wednesday at 04:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:10 PM @canderson’s wind took down this ash by my house 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Wednesday at 04:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:21 PM 17 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: That’s great and all but when does a man start drinking when his team plays at 1pm? Why stop from last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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