Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 05:03 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:03 AM Happy New Year's all. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 05:08 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:08 AM I didn't see the Ukie posted. Enjoy! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Wednesday at 05:09 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:09 AM Happy New Year American Weather! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 05:10 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:10 AM For those of dinosaurs who still write checks, New Years suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Wednesday at 05:10 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:10 AM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I didn't see the Ukie posted. Enjoy! Unbelievable, wow! Let’s see what the Euro says soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Wednesday at 05:11 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:11 AM Happy New Year!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Wednesday at 05:19 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:19 AM Happy New Year! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted Wednesday at 05:24 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:24 AM 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I didn't see the Ukie posted. Enjoy! if we are grasping at straws and looking at the Ukie I dont even want to look at the other models lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Wednesday at 06:46 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:46 AM Happy New Years! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Wednesday at 07:16 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:16 AM Oh no the late night replay is on…..am I really gonna??……no no but also i just might…..Final Four baby! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted Wednesday at 07:45 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:45 AM 4 hours ago, Ruin said: if we are grasping at straws and looking at the Ukie I dont even want to look at the other models lol That's blasphemy here, dude . One of the fellows here once served 8 years in the Perry County correctional institute for beating another member with his snow measuring bord just for confusing an operational with an ensemble. Then that snow crazed bastard actually shoved the yard stick in the other guys ass . Now I was told the poor fellow pulled through, but they needed an oral surgeon to remove the yard stick, and he now has a permanent square face, kind of like that SpongeBob Square Socks guy. I'm sure you're safe, but I personally would sleep on my back for the rest of the winter and only enter Perry County during. 00z, 06z 12z, and 18z for the rest of my life. This actually happened again a few years ago, and I heard that he settled with the blasphemer for a lifetime gold pivotal membership. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted Wednesday at 07:55 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:55 AM 9 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said: That's blasphemy here, dude . One of the fellows here once served 8 years in the Perry County correctional institute for beating another member with his measuring snowbord just for confusing an operational with an ensemble. Then that snow crazed bastard actually shoved the yard stick in the other guys ass . Now I was told the poor fellow pulled through, but they needed an oral surgeon to remove the yard stick, and he now has a permanent square face kind of like that SpongeBob Square Socks guy. I'm sure you're safe, but I personally would sleep on my back for the rest of the winter and only enter Perry County during. 00z, 06z 12z, and 18z for the rest of my life. This actually happened again a few years ago, and I heard he settled with the blasphemer for a lifetime pivotal membership. Im just saying isnt the Ukie one the models you dont really rely on all to much? thats what I was saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted Wednesday at 07:56 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:56 AM Just now, Ruin said: Im just saying isnt the Ukie one the models you dont really rely on all to much? thats what I was saying You'll be fine buddy I was just having fun with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted Wednesday at 08:38 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:38 AM 1 hour ago, Ruin said: Im just saying isnt the Ukie one the models you dont really rely on all to much? thats what I was saying I made fun of the computer forcast systems for many years here, mainly under another sn. It took me a while until I realized the amount of pride, emotions, and knowledge that these guys have for them. Im not a knowledgeable model guy, but I can tell you they are not relying on any single run to draw a final conclusion, but the high anxiety and emotions attached to every map here can make it seem like it at times with some poster's. The inferior models are used like a small factor in an equation. They are just looking for trends and hoping other models and solutions will follow and / or use it to compromise, blend, add, and eliminate from their own forcast and a lot more . These guys are very passionate about this stuff and do get pissed. The good news is It could have been worse had you said that in the Mid-Atlantic thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Wednesday at 11:33 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 11:33 AM What a frustrating hobby being a weather geek is... I woke up this morning hoping to see positive trends overnight wrt Monday's "event", but no dice. Still the same with most models holding the confluence and keeping the storm (and the snow) south, and allowing it to string out. I know it's early, and there's still time for things to trend better, but I'm losing hope on this bringing anything but flurries to a light dusting north of the turnpike and east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Wednesday at 11:42 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:42 AM Wxrisk.com otnoeSsrdpi1ltmggf1c5ih003f6citf2gl0h6gfu05t264a1393i4882ci2 · I AM OFF THE CLOCK UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAPPY NEW YEAR SICK TWISTED WEATHER FREAKS. No more updates until Wednesday evening. Just letting you all know. The maps and information I posted earlier are not a actual forecast for say. Just letting you know where things are trending. Today is Tuesday and if the data is right the snow will be in the Ohio Valley Sunday morning and moving into Virginia West Virginia Western Maryland by late Sunday evening. It is possible the track could shift for the north but I don't think that is likely given the massive block that is developed in Labrador and Greenland huge ocean low in southeast in Canada. What's the referred to as the 50/50 low. Also please keep in mind we are entering the heart of the winter season which continues with the climate change into March in most places. And just because some other YouTube clown is using the term Blizzard's or extreme historic cold doesn't mean that I am or some other meteorologist is. I know it can be confusing to the average person out there but we are not all the same. And we are not Jim Canmore youtube wannabes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Wednesday at 11:45 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:45 AM Wxrisk.com otnoeSsrdpi1ltmggf1c5ic003f6citf2gl0h6gfu05t264a5h93i4882ci2 · SURPRISE UPDATE... 0z Early Wed models Yeah like I am going to stay away.... The 0z z wed gfs model makes little sense... the snow ice doesn't even make it to far sw VA by 7am Monday Jan 6... this is much slower than last several gfs cmc and euro runs. It should be ignored. 0z WED EURO... what is important here is the consistency. This is now the sixth model run in a row of the European model all consecutive runs which really Hammer most of Virginia as well as West Virginia Northern Kentucky Southern Indiana and Southern Ohio with a significant not major snowstorm. As you see from the maps it comes in Sunday night in the Ohio Valley in West Virginia and the pre-dawn hours of Virginia from west to east. The new run keeps Richmond's temperatures even though it mixes over to sleet at below 32 degrees and then rapidly falls in the afternoon where it goes back to snow. But just north of Richmond Ashland for example stays all snow. As you can see from the snow map the models producing significant snows over 10 inches in some places in Charlottesville Fredericksburg Stafford Northern Virginia most of the Shenandoah Valley North of Lexington. More importantly the snow amounts have increased into the Washington DC metro area. But again the trend here is your friend. It's tracking due east not turning up the coast the least not on these model runs. If this hasn't changed by the time we get to Thursday morning and midday that's probably not going to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 12:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:28 PM 6z Eps continue to creep north. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CASH_COOP Posted Wednesday at 01:04 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:04 PM 35 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z Eps continue to creep north. I “liked” this post on both forums. That’s a great signal right there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 01:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:10 PM 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: Wxrisk.com otnoeSsrdpi1ltmggf1c5ic003f6citf2gl0h6gfu05t264a5h93i4882ci2 · SURPRISE UPDATE... 0z Early Wed models Yeah like I am going to stay away.... The 0z z wed gfs model makes little sense... the snow ice doesn't even make it to far sw VA by 7am Monday Jan 6... this is much slower than last several gfs cmc and euro runs. It should be ignored. 0z WED EURO... what is important here is the consistency. This is now the sixth model run in a row of the European model all consecutive runs which really Hammer most of Virginia as well as West Virginia Northern Kentucky Southern Indiana and Southern Ohio with a significant not major snowstorm. As you see from the maps it comes in Sunday night in the Ohio Valley in West Virginia and the pre-dawn hours of Virginia from west to east. The new run keeps Richmond's temperatures even though it mixes over to sleet at below 32 degrees and then rapidly falls in the afternoon where it goes back to snow. But just north of Richmond Ashland for example stays all snow. As you can see from the snow map the models producing significant snows over 10 inches in some places in Charlottesville Fredericksburg Stafford Northern Virginia most of the Shenandoah Valley North of Lexington. More importantly the snow amounts have increased into the Washington DC metro area. But again the trend here is your friend. It's tracking due east not turning up the coast the least not on these model runs. If this hasn't changed by the time we get to Thursday morning and midday that's probably not going to. I unfortunately am in DT's camp right now. I am not sure this one is ours. I feel like we have a better shot with the next one that sweeps up from the SE. For that heavier swath of snow to get to us we will need it to cut a bit more. There is one thing I do not like in his wording and that is tracking East. More and more buying into the Miller B scenario where the block is such that it does not track, it transfer. So those EC totals would be overdone as a whole area total vs. smaller/specific areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Wednesday at 01:14 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:14 PM 7 minutes ago, CASH_COOP said: I “liked” this post on both forums. That’s a great signal right there This is often the time that north trends commence, which Is why I was initially bummed when I woke up this morning. Hopefully the eps is seeing something and we'll eventually get that north trend. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 01:18 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:18 PM 10 minutes ago, CASH_COOP said: I “liked” this post on both forums. That’s a great signal right there I added the north trend here because if I was back in the DC/BWI area, I wouldn't need anyone from a different forum rubbing that in my face. I do believe there will be a limit to the northern extent, but where that is nobody knows at this point. Notwithstanding, my gut says that somebody in NVA will be the jackpot location east of the Blue Ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 01:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:19 PM Just now, mitchnick said: I added the north trend here because if I was back in the DC/BWI area, I wouldn't need anyone from a different forum rubbing that in my face. I do believe there will be a limit to the northern extent, but where that is nobody knows at this point. Notwithstanding, my gut says that somebody in NVA will be the jackpot location east of the Blue Ridge. I would put the big snows Fredericksburg and East right now if doing a forecast that far out. Big as in 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Wednesday at 01:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:21 PM 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I unfortunately am in DT's camp right now. I am not sure this one is ours. I feel like we have a better shot with the next one that sweeps up from the SE. For that heavier swath of snow to get to us we will need it to cut a bit more. There is one thing I do not like in his wording and that is tracking East. More and more buying into the Miller B scenario where the block is such that it does not track, it transfer. So those EC totals would be overdone as a whole area total vs. smaller/specific areas. My NWS forecast Sunday Monday says scattered flurries here.. So maybe DT for the win. JB said yesterday He expects the 2" line to run near I-80. I think this one is not going the way we want it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 01:24 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:24 PM 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: My NWS forecast Sunday Monday says scattered flurries here.. So maybe DT for the win. JB said yesterday He expects the 2" line to run near I-80. I think this one is not going the way we want it to. 2" near I80 would not be out of this world with the modeled setup (does not mean that is what actually happens) just not sure nay of the real fgen gets up here with the block. Outside a few outliers like the UK, models have consistently shown the system minoring out in some manner (transfer.) I think 2-4" for much of the LSV would be a super safe call right now as it would not take much snow to accumulate with the cold. Less Eastern LSV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CASH_COOP Posted Wednesday at 01:31 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:31 PM 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I added the north trend here because if I was back in the DC/BWI area, I wouldn't need anyone from a different forum rubbing that in my face. I do believe there will be a limit to the northern extent, but where that is nobody knows at this point. Notwithstanding, my gut says that somebody in NVA will be the jackpot location east of the Blue Ridge. Thanks for posting updates. I’m trying to think back when we had a similar setup or storm. Not sure if the December 2009 storm would make the cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Wednesday at 01:31 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:31 PM 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 2" near I80 would not be out of this world with the modeled setup (does not mean that is what actually happens) just not sure nay of the real fgen gets up here with the block. Outside a few outliers like the UK, models have consistently shown the system minoring out in some manner (transfer.) I think 2-4" for much of the LSV would be a super safe call right now as it would not take much snow to accumulate with the cold. Less Eastern LSV. And there you go, bursting my bubble(r)... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 01:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:34 PM Not a big fan of even using ensemble qpf maps but if one looks at the qpf totals for both the GEFS and EPS (which again is always a risk especially with extreme events) , our area is the precip hole because the low's forcing/energy transfer out from under us while it is making its approach. Major changes in the initial approach or the high's pressure could change this dramatically so this is just a model discussion as to these 2 maps but this scenario has been the more common one for several days now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 01:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:35 PM 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: And there you go, bursting my bubble(r)... Just model disco. I do not play the game of wishcasting. 2-4" of snow would still be nice it if happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Wednesday at 01:44 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:44 PM 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just model disco. I do not play the game of wishcasting. 2-4" of snow would still be nice it if happened. Yes I say your taking a good route there. You wouldn't want to be called out and slammed by DT for wishcasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now