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Central PA Winter 2024/2025


Voyager
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3 hours ago, Voyager said:

So we did a thing yesterday. We rescued this little girl off the streets. I'm not a big fan of keeping her kenneled until she sees the vet on Thursday, but it's our only option, as we have already have a cat, and they need to be kept apart until she gets her shots and blood work. Once that happens, she will be "paroled" and free to play with her new brother and enjoy a warm, safe, loving home.

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Congratulations! We have done this 6 times so far and don't regret a single moment. We currently have 5 with us who are loved unconditionally. 

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6 minutes ago, Voyager said:

What's to keep this from creeping north the closer we get to game time? 

If it comes further north you're probably going to have precip type issues in the far LSV. You would likely be fine, but I'm kinda more interested in seeing Mike cash in than anyone else right now. I think my road has caved more times this year (and likely will tomorrow night and or Thursday and Friday with the upslope and lake events) than his has in half a decade. 

So i would rather it stay close to where it is, even if that means I freeze my anus off and get showered to death.

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8 minutes ago, Voyager said:

 

But is he talking snow, cold, or both?

 

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Can you please post his thoughts when you get the chance?

I tried to find it on their twitter page & website, but didn’t see anything today about the next week possibilities.

He's been active on X this morning talking about the rain this evening (long gone from here by midnight) and his latest entries simply said that winter returns with a vengeance this weekend and for next week - Buckle Up.

I'll share more once he elaborates.

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

He's been active on X this morning talking about the rain this evening (long gone from here by midnight) and his latest entries simply said that winter returns with a vengeance this weekend and for next week - Buckle Up.

I'll share more once he elaborates.

That's good, and thanks for replying, but it would have been nice if he elaborated a bit more, but I guess one event at a time.

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Storm never gets its act together and stays way south on the GFS.  A nothing burger for PA and the Mid Atlantic.  Snows confined to North Carolina.  On to the next run. 

I'm not sure I'm buying what the GFS is selling. This may stay south, but I'm not sure it'll be that far south.

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2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I'm not either.  Canadian coming in with a much better look. 

The Canadian still shears out at the last minute, but I like the look it had with the low in Southwest Kentucky and the associated precip position.

Ease that confluence just a bit & it would work well for southern PA.

 

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IMG_8218.png

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7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The Canadian still shears out at the last minute, but I like the look it had with the low in Southwest Kentucky and the associated precip position.

Ease that confluence just a bit & it would work well for southern PA.

 

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Agreed.  It didn't get it done this run but the look is there.  Again, will be fascinating to see whether this ends up playing out as a true Miller B and if so, how badly that screws those of us stuck in the middle.  Long way to go. 

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7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Agreed.  It didn't get it done this run but the look is there.  Again, will be fascinating to see whether this ends up playing out as a true Miller B and if so, how badly that screws those of us stuck in the middle.  Long way to go. 

Indeed, still 6 days to go.

I like that the cutter idea is fading, but now we need to avoid suppression.

Over the years, lows that track to Kentucky & fade or jump to the VA Capes, usually bring the main swath of precip into at least the southern half of PA.

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37 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I'm not sure I'm buying what the GFS is selling. This may stay south, but I'm not sure it'll be that far south.

cold press is legit and once established, you need to look at trough axis w/ each vort.  Suppressed is surely an option, but when 3 op runs give 3 notably different solutions as to where the letter L is on said run, that means alot, and we just need time to see where the boundary sets up and go from there.  Fortunately there are notable diff's from each model, so that tells us this is far from decided.

Happy to see the reshuffle now being reshuffled to a funnr pattern.  

Happy and healthy New Years to all.

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9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@mitchnick is busy in the other thread, but I just stole this 12z Ukie from them.

I would like to see a more zoomed in Kuchera for the whole event if someone has it.

WB doesn’t have good Ukie maps…

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Here’s another Ukie map I ripped from another thread.

Still 10-1, but zoomed in & for the whole event.

IMG_8220.png

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