Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Bubbler86]

20 minutes ago, paweather said:

Georgia by 24  

Notre Dame by 2

Penn State by 24

Oregon by 3 

 

 

So both Texas and ASU forfeit?    :-)

[paweather]

25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So both Texas and ASU forfeit?    :-)

I screwed up!  

[WmsptWx]

Notre Dame 24

Jawjuh 10

Sorry, you have no QB and your defense has been ass at times. Notre Dame's RB tandem are top tier with Jeanty, Singleton, and Allen. 

 

Texas 28

Arizona State 3

Texas' defense is stellar. I just don't see a world in which Cam Skatteboon runs wild enough to allow anything to happen. 

 

Ohio State 35

Oregon 17

 

If the Ohio State that teabagged Tennessee keeps showing up, it's over. If the Ohio State that lost yo Michigan and Oregon and should have lost to Penn State shows up, Oregon big. 

 

Penn State 42

Boise State 10

 

Tom Allen is going to stack the box and make Maddux Madsen throw. And Dom Deluca and Tony Rojas are going to eat. And the offense will not have any trouble running on Boise State's G5 defense. 

[Bubbler86]

0Z HRRR really cranking up the NYE fireworks show tomorrow evening.  NWS has been bullish on this but not much model support until now.  HRRR had a bit lesser version of it at 18Z. 

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

41 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

0Z HRRR really cranking up the NYE fireworks show tomorrow evening.  NWS has been bullish on this but not much model support until now.  HRRR had a bit lesser version of it at 18Z. 

 

I know some scoff at those of us that look for lighting preceding  cpa winter storms.  It does seem doubtful there could be a correlation, but we have seen this so many times 4 to 6 days before many of this areas better winter systems ? It's probably more in response to the  pattern change, but I say when there's winter, lightning snow often follows and often in a big way.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z ICON just made a significant move towards the Euro for the Monday Winter storm chance.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Both mother natural and gpu's are blowing there horns, probably time for all to listen and play close attention to both. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

13 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I know some scoff at those of us that look for lighting preceding  cpa winter storms.  It does seem doubtful there could be a correlation, but we have seen this so many times 4 to 6 days before many of this areas better winter systems ? It's probably more in response to the  pattern change, but I say when there's winter, lightning snow often follows and often in a big way.

I apologize, Bubbler. When I say us, I mean a few of the fellows  that have posted about this before. I didn't mean to imply that you believe there is a correlation or scoff at those that do.

[Voyager]

22 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I know some scoff at those of us that look for lighting preceding  cpa winter storms.  It does seem doubtful there could be a correlation, but we have seen this so many times 4 to 6 days before many of this areas better winter systems ? It's probably more in response to the  pattern change, but I say when there's winter, lightning snow often follows and often in a big way.

Ralph Wiggum in the Philly forum has posted about this many times. Many times the theory has proven true.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

34 when I left the house. Exciting times ahead, mayhaps. 

[Voyager]

So we did a thing yesterday. We rescued this little girl off the streets. I'm not a big fan of keeping her kenneled until she sees the vet on Thursday, but it's our only option, as we have already have a cat, and they need to be kept apart until she gets her shots and blood work. Once that happens, she will be "paroled" and free to play with her new brother and enjoy a warm, safe, loving home.

[Bubbler86]

43 this PSU AM.  Another nasty (for me) inversion in progress with 30's all around me in valleys.  HRRR has adjusted the more vigorous area of lightning and thunder for today a bit east and focuses on the Lanco area which was in line with SPC's calls from yesterday though they have expanded their map now. 

 

Has a thinnish squall line crossing Lanco around 8PM today. 

 

 

 

 

[mahantango#1]

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

43 this PSU AM.  Another nasty (for me) inversion in progress with 30's all around me in valleys.

 

28 here.

[Bubbler86]

42 minutes ago, Voyager said:

So we did a thing yesterday. We rescued this little girl off the streets. I'm not a big fan of keeping her kenneled until she sees the vet on Thursday, but it's our only option, as we have already have a cat, and they need to be kept apart until she gets her shots and blood work. Once that happens, she will be "paroled" and free to play with her new brother and enjoy a warm, safe, loving home.

Good on you, man.  Thanks for taking her in and yea, you can't be too careful until tests are done especially FELV.  A new pet for a new year :-) 

[mahantango#1]

Calling them now, the winners:

 

Georgia

Texas

Oregon

Penn State

[Bubbler86]

Blizz must still be sleeping to not post the bulbous WB Kuch Euro map for Jan 6/7th. A Mid Atlantic Mauler with close to a foot even up to the M/D Line.  Decent snows into our area but lessening as one goes North.    Some other suites are more Miller B like in their presentation so a screw zone develops near us as we lose the lift in the atmosphere.   0Z UK was more similar to the Euro but focuses on this area instead of the MA as a low cuts to our west but CAD holds all levels here before a transfer happens. 

[mahantango#1]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Blizz must still be sleeping to not post the bulbous WB Kuch Euro map for Jan 6/7th. A Mid Atlantic Mauler with close to a foot even up to the M/D Line.  Decent snows into our area but lessening as one goes North.    Some other suites are more Miller B like in their presentation so a screw zone develops near us as we lose the lift in the atmosphere.   0Z UK was more similar to the Euro but focuses on this area instead of the MA as a low cuts to our west but CAD holds all levels here before a transfer happens. 

So this is the beginning of stick a fork in it winter? 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said:

So this is the beginning of stick a fork in it winter? 

Time to be cautiously optimistic IMO as I think it has a better than 50% chance of snowing in a week.  

[mahantango#1]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Time to be cautiously optimistic IMO as I think it has a better than 50% chance of snowing in a week.  

I'm ready, Got the plow on the 4-wheeler, when it was warm the other week. Yesterday got the snowblower started and ready. Just not looking forward to extreme cold if it shows up here.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Time to be cautiously optimistic IMO as I think it has a better than 50% chance of snowing in a week.  

It's going to drop a lot of snow somewhere near us and I  think you and I  are finally in a decent spot, at least that's how it looks right now. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mitchnick said:

It's going to drop a lot of snow somewhere near us and I  think you and I  are finally in a decent spot, at least that's how it looks right now. 

A week out and I am not going to use words like going to.  A cut and transfer could screw most of us.   I think the Euro is the only one not cutting right now.   Fortunately we have some decent cold air to protect us.   But fingers crossed we are good with this one. 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I'm ready, Got the plow on the 4-wheeler, when it was warm the other week. Yesterday got the snowblower started and ready. Just not looking forward to extreme cold if it shows up here.

I am away from my PC now but thinking the Euro really cut back on the extreme cold/PV drops into the MA idea.    The GFS was still quite cold 14-15 days out but....14-15 days out.   I did not look at ensembles though. 

[Voyager]

6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I'm ready, Got the plow on the 4-wheeler, when it was warm the other week. Yesterday got the snowblower started and ready. Just not looking forward to extreme cold if it shows up here.

I agree. The snow I can deal with. Extreme cold? No thanks.

[Blizzard of 93]

43 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Time to be cautiously optimistic IMO as I think it has a better than 50% chance of snowing in a week.  

Good morning, see what I did there…

I put the “100” on your 50% post, Lol.

Nothing is ever truly 100, but as you said, cautious optimism is increasing for our snow chances next week.

[Voyager]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good morning, see what I did there…

I put the “100” on your 50% post, Lol.

Nothing is ever truly 100, but as you said, cautious optimism is increasing for our snow chances next week.

I know some of the models from time to time threw out some biblical numbers, which is everyone's white dream, but I do believe we easily see at least 3-6 from one or multiple events. I don't believe we'll be completely shut out.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Blizz must still be sleeping to not post the bulbous WB Kuch Euro map for Jan 6/7th. A Mid Atlantic Mauler with close to a foot even up to the M/D Line.  Decent snows into our area but lessening as one goes North.    Some other suites are more Miller B like in their presentation so a screw zone develops near us as we lose the lift in the atmosphere.   0Z UK was more similar to the Euro but focuses on this area instead of the MA as a low cuts to our west but CAD holds all levels here before a transfer happens. 

This is what I'll be keeping an eye on in the days to come.  As you say, some depictions have a classic Miller B central PA dry slot developing.  Certainly a plausible outcome, although at this time I'm still optimistic we get some goods.  I'll be very curious to see how this trends in the days ahead.  Also, the lake effect machine really gets ramped up again with another prolonged event.  Fun winter times forthcoming.

[Blizzard of 93]

32 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

This is what I'll be keeping an eye on in the days to come.  As you say, some depictions have a classic Miller B central PA dry slot developing.  Certainly a plausible outcome, although at this time I'm still optimistic we get some goods.  I'll be very curious to see how this trends in the days ahead.  Also, the lake effect machine really gets ramped up again with another prolonged event.  Fun winter times forthcoming.

It’s a delicate balance with this storm, with the strength of the low, the latitude it reaches & where it redevelops.

The good thing is that we will have ample cold in place, so I’m confident if we get a solid precip shield, we will stay mostly snow. I don’t want to see it be weak & sheared out.

I like where we sit in the southern third of PA for Monday.

[paweather]

10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s a delicate balance with this storm, with the strength of the low, the latitude it reaches & where it redevelops.

The good thing is that we will have ample cold in place, so I’m confident if we get a solid precip shield, we will stay mostly snow. I don’t want to see it be weak & sheared out.

I like where we sit in the southern third of PA for Monday.

I’m getting hopeful! 

[ChescoWx]

Happy New Year's Eve to all of you!
Today looks like our last day that will be well above normal for quite a while. Unfortunately, while we start out sunny clouds will increase and some poorly timed showers and maybe even a rumble of thunder will arrive from the west. Rain should enter Western Chester County during the 7pm hour or so and with some luck will exit stage right (east) before the midnight hour. Our step down to well below normal temperatures starts tomorrow with closer to normal highs in the mid 40's. By the time we get to Friday we may start a pretty long stretch of freezing days with highs over the weekend struggling to escape the 20's. Snow chances increase by the end of the weekend and as we move into the first full week of 2025.

[canderson]

Miller Bs are as dependable as a 14 year old meth addict.