Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS goes on to have a boundary rider a few days later but it also dampens it with only light snow for western parts of this forum.   GEM also dampening the 6th low (not cutting like some of the comments elsewhere) so that is the trend here.  Not enough space for amplification especially with it trying to attach a surface high to its SE. 

Is the 9th still in the game?

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

Is the 9th still in the game?

For today's runs, that is the 9th re: the piece of energy that rides in similar to a clipper.  I did not look into it too much but runs into confluence/or similar and can never develop.    For later, we are all in the game when talking about a situation over 7 days from now :-). 

[AccuChris]

Is the 9th still in the game?

While the 6z run had an all-out blizzard for the time period, the 12z loses the storm. Tons of digging energy but doesnt phase it all together for a big storm like the 6z had it. So much potential and energy coming up in the next 2 weeks it will be tough for models to really lock onto individual storms more than 4-5 days out right now


.

[Voyager]

13 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

While the 6z run had an all-out blizzard for the time period, the 12z loses the storm. Tons of digging energy but doesnt phase it all together for a big storm like the 6z had it. So much potential and energy coming up in the next 2 weeks it will be tough for models to really lock onto individual storms more than 4-5 days out right now


.

Correct. And how many times have fish storms trended back and buried us? How many went the too far and cut?

No need to panic, or even get depressed, at this point.

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

While the 6z run had an all-out blizzard for the time period, the 12z loses the storm. Tons of digging energy but doesnt phase it all together for a big storm like the 6z had it. So much potential and energy coming up in the next 2 weeks it will be tough for models to really lock onto individual storms more than 4-5 days out right now


.

A post on the MA forum hit the nail on the head with the entire run of the 12Z GFS except the southern slider well into the 300's, no room for amplification.   The storm on the 6th has a retrearting High and another low boxing it in our system with nothing for it to do except slowly die off. 

[AccuChris]

A post on the MA forum hit the nail on the head with the entire run of the 12Z GFS except the southern slider well into the 300's, no room for amplification.   The storm on the 6th has a retrearting High and another low boxing it in our system with nothing for it to do except slowly die off. 

At this stage so far out, all solutions are possible. No doubt tons of potential which is good enough for me at this point!


.

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

At this stage so far out, all solutions are possible. No doubt tons of potential which is good enough for me at this point!


.

Yea, basically just model disco going on from me.    That is the fun part sometimes.  Why did a prog do something. 

[paweather]

46 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

While the 6z run had an all-out blizzard for the time period, the 12z loses the storm. Tons of digging energy but doesnt phase it all together for a big storm like the 6z had it. So much potential and energy coming up in the next 2 weeks it will be tough for models to really lock onto individual storms more than 4-5 days out right now


.

Thanks and Bubbler as well.

[mitchnick]

At this point, operationals are just a higher skilled ensemble member wrt 1/6 & beyond. We wait.

[Voyager]

Meanwhile, this happened just a couple miles from my house. Pretty cool video if you wait for the commercial to end.

https://www.pahomepage.com/top-stories/police-chase-through-luzerne-county-ends-in-arrest/

[Bubbler86]

EC looked like a big dog was coming in but also dampened out/held steady vs. deepening...still a decent event this run.    3-5" for southern LSV on 10-1.    Kuch surely higher.  A little more to the west and less North. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

EC looked like a big dog was coming in but also dampened out/held steady vs. deepening...still a decent event this run.    3-5" for southern LSV on 10-1.  A little more to the west and less North. 

This includes other stuff, but Kuchera is better than 10:1 in this threat. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mitchnick said:

This includes other stuff, but Kuchera is better than 10:1 in this threat. 

Yea, I had edited my post that Kuch would be high.  I saw a WB map but was not going to quote that.   It was 2-4" higher than this map. 

[Bubbler86]

The closer I look at the EC, it seems more like a Miler B/Transfer.   SLP forming in South Virginia on panel 168. 

[Bubbler86]

From the 0Z EC to the 12Z, the temp on the morning of 1/11 went from -8 at Harrisburg to 17. 

[ChescoWx]

Below is a listing of the Greatest December Snowstorms in Chester / SE Berks County PA History

[Bubbler86]

My Picks

 

PSU 31-Boise 27.  Good Karma pick for the group.  I think Boise is underrated (but who knows how they show on this stage).  Closed roof/indoor game. 

Texas 29- ASU 19  Roof Closed I believe. 

Oregon 44-OSU 20 Outdoor game...maybe the only one. 

ND 34-GA 20  Closed roof stadium.    (UMass scored 21 on GA and GA Tech dropped 40+ on them just in the last 2 months) 

 

 

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, I had edited my post that Kuch would be high.  I saw a WB map but was not going to quote that.   It was 2-4" higher than this map. 

I’ll quote it, with 24 hour precip/snowfall

24hr Kuchera

 

24hr total QPF:

I’m not gonna go too crazy with mathing all the locations but MDT’s 8.2” at 0.5” is about a 16:1 ratio… which is somewhat better than January climo. The 12z Euro had a very cold column with this event, with the -8ºC 850 isotherm never getting above MDT and surface temps in the low to mid 20s area wide. Definitely cold enough for better than climo ratios. Just strictly interpreting what the model is outputting, I’m okay with those higher snowfall numbers. 

Whether thats the actual solution is obviously debatable at this range. It seems that guidance wants to bring more of this energy out front to make the main system in the 1/5 to 1/6 timeframe. We don’t have the 500mb alignment the whole way in place yet (western ridge asis off the Pac coast).. a stronger system that phases more energy in would likely cut. The GFS actually does cut the low but it’s weakening into what will be a decent antecedent cold airmass so result would probably be a majority frozen event for most here but mixing would be on the table. The Euro managed to get the low just underneath PA to a coastal transfer. If this is going to be the main system to get us here in C-PA, that’s probably the ideal solution.

30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

From the 0Z EC to the 12Z, the temp on the morning of 1/11 went from -8 at Harrisburg to 17. 

Euro has been a bit inconsistent, big difference between it and the GFS at 12z. Very little blocking in the NAO realm and also trying to hang troughing back into SW (Euro bias)

12z GFS v Euro

Euro ensembles are more in line with GFS/GEFS. Still weaker in the NAO realm like the Euro op but big difference in not really supporting the Euro op’s trough digging in the SW

12z GEFS v Euro EPS

 Pretty far out in range yet, but I’m leaning cold given the general consensus right now. Models have been targeting that 1/10 to 1/11 timeframe for a major arctic shot more often than not so far. 

 

[canderson]

Just like I was told on prom night, I’m good with anything more than 4”. 

[Itstrainingtime]

54 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My Picks

 

PSU 31-Boise 27.  Good Karma pick for the group.  I think Boise is underrated (but who knows how they show on this stage).  Closed roof/indoor game. 

Texas 29- ASU 19  Roof Closed I believe. 

Oregon 44-OSU 20 Outdoor game...maybe the only one. 

ND 34-GA 20  Closed roof stadium.    (UMass scored 21 on GA and GA Tech dropped 40+ on them just in the last 2 months) 

 

 

Mostly agree with the PSU and Texas picks. I wouldn't guess much differently at all on either of those.

I think THE Ohio State is going to beat Oregon. I think OSU at it's best would beat anyone. They have the motivation to play at a championship level. I could see OSU winning by 7-10 points.

Until Georgia loses I'll go down with them. Championship pedigree and Smart knows what it takes. Give me Georgia by 3.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Mostly agree with the PSU and Texas picks. I wouldn't guess much differently at all on either of those.

I think THE Ohio State is going to beat Oregon. I think OSU at it's best would beat anyone. They have the motivation to play at a championship level. I could see OSU winning by 7-10 points.

Until Georgia loses I'll go down with them. Championship pedigree and Smart knows what it takes. Give me Georgia by 3.

Completely agree.  I feel very strongly that Ohio State wins that game.  

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Mostly agree with the PSU and Texas picks. I wouldn't guess much differently at all on either of those.

I think THE Ohio State is going to beat Oregon. I think OSU at it's best would beat anyone. They have the motivation to play at a championship level. I could see OSU winning by 7-10 points.

Until Georgia loses I'll go down with them. Championship pedigree and Smart knows what it takes. Give me Georgia by 3.

No worries.  If we all knew the right answer then sports books would not take bets :-).

[anotherman]

Mostly agree with the PSU and Texas picks. I wouldn't guess much differently at all on either of those.
I think THE Ohio State is going to beat Oregon. I think OSU at it's best would beat anyone. They have the motivation to play at a championship level. I could see OSU winning by 7-10 points.
Until Georgia loses I'll go down with them. Championship pedigree and Smart knows what it takes. Give me Georgia by 3.

Agree about Ohio State but I think Georgia goes down. SEC was vastly overrated this season.

[canderson]

My picks:

Texas by 16
Notre Dame by 2
Penn State by 13
Ohio State by 1

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Agree about Ohio State but I think Georgia goes down. SEC was vastly overrated this season.

I believe the GA/ND odds are the closest of all 4 games.   AZ State sounds very confident so my pick of Texas worries me a bit.   I knew everyone here would cringe at my pick of a Oregon roll of OSU but I am an offense first guy and Ohio State has already lost to them once. 

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Agree about Ohio State but I think Georgia goes down. SEC was vastly overrated this season.

I completely understand. I'm ignoring logic in favor of a hunch regarding the Dogs. 

[Bubbler86]

MDT's near midnight high of 60 will stand as the high today.  They now have 8 hours to drop 10 degrees thus avoiding the Max Min record for the day.   Meso's still say they make it. 

[canderson]

The wind can die off any time. It’s windier this afternoon than yesterday. 

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I’ll quote it, with 24 hour precip/snowfall

24hr Kuchera

 

24hr total QPF:

I’m not gonna go too crazy with mathing all the locations but MDT’s 8.2” at 0.5” is about a 16:1 ratio… which is somewhat better than January climo. The 12z Euro had a very cold column with this event, with the -8ºC 850 isotherm never getting above MDT and surface temps in the low to mid 20s area wide. Definitely cold enough for better than climo ratios. Just strictly interpreting what the model is outputting, I’m okay with those higher snowfall numbers. 

Whether thats the actual solution is obviously debatable at this range. It seems that guidance wants to bring more of this energy out front to make the main system in the 1/5 to 1/6 timeframe. We don’t have the 500mb alignment the whole way in place yet (western ridge asis off the Pac coast).. a stronger system that phases more energy in would likely cut. The GFS actually does cut the low but it’s weakening into what will be a decent antecedent cold airmass so result would probably be a majority frozen event for most here but mixing would be on the table. The Euro managed to get the low just underneath PA to a coastal transfer. If this is going to be the main system to get us here in C-PA, that’s probably the ideal solution.

Euro has been a bit inconsistent, big difference between it and the GFS at 12z. Very little blocking in the NAO realm and also trying to hang troughing back into SW (Euro bias)

12z GFS v Euro

Euro ensembles are more in line with GFS/GEFS. Still weaker in the NAO realm like the Euro op but big difference in not really supporting the Euro op’s trough digging in the SW

12z GEFS v Euro EPS

 Pretty far out in range yet, but I’m leaning cold given the general consensus right now. Models have been targeting that 1/10 to 1/11 timeframe for a major arctic shot more often than not so far. 

 

Great stuff as always Mag. Thanks for sharing. Looking forward to keeping an eye on this period. 

[paweather]

2 hours ago, canderson said:

My picks:

Texas by 16
Notre Dame by 2
Penn State by 13
Ohio State by 1

Georgia by 24  

Notre Dame by 2

Penn State by 24

Oregon by 3