Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[paweather]

What happened to the rain? 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

62 and very windy here currently.

Still 65 here after a high of 67.  Even MDT managed to get well into the 60's.    As someone else pointed out, today would be a record on many Dec days. 

[Jns2183]

The wind is welcome. Far to hot and sticky out this afternoon

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[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

The wind is welcome. Far to hot and sticky out this afternoon

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It got up to 72 in our place so the AC is booming.   Today is one of the warmer winter days I have experienced in the last 6 years.  

[Blizzard of 93]

Enjoy the short break on home heating costs… the deep freeze returns in a few days.

[Bubbler86]

Just for fun the 18Z GFS Jan 6th/7th Miller A.  For people really into the science, this is literally just for fun. 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GFS would be a nice way to start the potential Winter pattern next Monday the 6th.

This solution would be a compromise from the previous cutting tracks & the southern slider option.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 18z GFS would be a nice way to start the potential Winter pattern next Monday the 6th.

This solution would be a compromise from the previous cutting tracks & the southern slider option.

Next 1 is lighter snow, but close to much better.

[pawatch]

Currently 61 degrees…Last Monday morning Zero degrees. 
 

[pasnownut]

Great weekend at cabin. Arrived Friday to 6” of snow to plow. Low key chill weekend. Left today at 840 am with 4” still otg and 37 deg. Once to wspt we hit the 40’s. 
saw about 2 min of sun here at home but it’s warm. 
Don’t worry blizz, hoping you won’t be alone on the limb soon enough. Looking forward to seeing how this evolves vs how modeled. Looks perty so far.  

[Jns2183]

I feel like a Drunk twenty something year old at the bar at 1:45am in the midst of a long dry spell....id take a sleet storm at this point

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[paweather]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 18z GFS would be a nice way to start the potential Winter pattern next Monday the 6th.

This solution would be a compromise from the previous cutting tracks & the southern slider option.

Hopeful now it keeps showing up! 

[canderson]

40 is my current highest gust 

[WmsptWx]

There was a tornado warning in Forest county a while ago. That was weird.

[anotherman]

[mitchnick]

Nice runs on the 0z Euro and 6z Gfs.

[Blizzard of 93]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nice runs on the 0z Euro and 6z Gfs.

Beautiful runs indeed.

My handbook says to take the 0z Euro for the 6th & the 6z GFS for the 10th.

Lol, let’s try to get those two runs anywhere close to verifying & then call it a Winter.

[Blizzard of 93]

The snow maps for both runs are beyond drool worthy.

We need to get the track for the first storm chance on the 6th narrowed down, which will then help to determine if we will have a second opportunity later next week.

Either way, it’s going to be entertaining to see how these play out. We could win on both, get one or the other or strike out, all options are still on the table.

 

[Bubbler86]

48 this AM with only .05" of additional rain last night.

 

On the subject of anomalous weather, MDT has already recorded a 59 or 60 today and their current low of 51/52 is 8 or 9 degrees above the Max Min for the date though Meso's suggest they will be able to get down below the current record of 43 before midnight tonight. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The yearly surplus at MDT is in trouble unless they get about 1.5” of rain by the time the ball drops at midnight on Tuesday night.

[Bubbler86]

The storms and rumors are always an interesting aspect of the model watching but I will admit that when it comes to the artic outbreak shown on the 280+ Euro OP, I have PTSD as to posting any of those maps because it seems we have yearly bouts with blocking lining up correctly to pour the coldest of cold down into the US (on the GFS previous since the Euro op has not gone out this far until this year but plenty of ensemble members as well).  Recently they have all been 10+ days out and the moderation march ends up with a much less severe cold shot in reality.   

Eventually it will happen in some form but hard to bite on it again. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 49 with .05" of additional rainfall.  Three-day total was a bit underwhelming at .71" but still solid.  I'm at almost exactly 40" for the year, which is just a couple under my yearly average. 

[paweather]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Beautiful runs indeed.

My handbook says to take the 0z Euro for the 6th & the 6z GFS for the 10th.

Lol, let’s try to get those two runs anywhere close to verifying & then call it a Winter.

I’m all in!

[ChescoWx]

Over the last 3 days most of Chester and Berks counties have picked up between 1.25" to 1.50" of rain. Today will be a beautiful late December day with temperatures again well into the 50's. New Year's Eve day starts dry but rings in 2025 wet. We turn chillier with closer to normal temperatures for New Year's Day before we fall to well below normal temperatures by Thursday through next weekend.

[WmsptWx]

12 hours ago, anotherman said:

This I believe will happen. Moreso than snow in the LSV. I may eat crow on that in about ten days, but I think the coming cold is going to be noticable.

[pasnownut]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Nice runs on the 0z Euro and 6z Gfs.

yeah looks like all systems go and that 2025 may get us off to a good start.  Op runs still doing their bouncin around a bit, but should lock in over next couple days and pattern stabilizes...me thinks.  Low amp 8/1/2 while a muted signal, sure doesnt hurt with other tellies looking pretty perty.  

[Bubbler86]

Gust of 44 here.  MDT on the 30's board as to gusts, AOO gusting into the 40's. 

[WmsptWx]

Hysteria over the models appears to have started. I've gotten multiple tests this morning about "a big storm later in the week?"

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Hysteria over the models appears to have started. I've gotten multiple tests this morning about "a big storm later in the week?"

12Z GFS basically continues to dampen it out over here though it does snow a little.  The thing about the timing on this, first day back for kids and a lot of adults, makes it extra important per se.  

[Bubbler86]

GFS goes on to have a boundary rider a few days later but it also dampens it with only light snow for western parts of this forum.  The area of LP hangs around just to our south but never produces precip in the LSV.    GEM also dampening the 6th low (not fully cutting like some of the comments elsewhere, there are two areas of lowest pressure) so that is the trend here.  Not enough space for amplification especially with it trying to attack a surface high to its SE.