Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Blizzard of 93 I think I came off the wrong way, and for that I apologize. For the record, as of now count me in the "excited for January" camp. There is much to be cautiously optimistic about.

And that was the sole basis of my "slow down" comment. There's a difference between being optimistic versus making definitive statements like "next week I'm going to be shoveling" - and those are statements that you've made repeatedly over the past few years when in the end, nothing happened.

I will never speak against your excitement and enthusiasm. I write about just that in my "day in the life" entries. But the fact remains...there's no absolutes when it comes to the weather other than what's happening outside your window now.

Again, I'm sorry I contributed to this for you.

Thank you, and yes (although I am guilty occasionally too) the one thing that makes me cringe is seeing posts with definitive statements.  A day or two ago a statement that Saturday WILL be a rainy, coolish day looked like a sure bet.  It is currently Partly Sunny and 46 here...maybe headed for a run near 60.  Other NWS sites, except MDT, all into the 40's already. 

[mahantango#1]

Wxrisk.com

deSosnptor67ii21ai19i20m0amh256acg7uc83tugalct17t74cmga6752g  · 

 

 

ABOUT JAN 6 UPDATE AND BEYOND...

RULE NUMBER 1 = weather models come and go. Sometimes the solutions beyond three or four days makes sense and sometimes they don't. BUT the rules the atmosphere on the planet Earth do not change.

Ever. ..Models be damned. Ok?

The solution offered by the early Saturday morning 0z run of the operational or regular GFS and the European model of taking the surface LOW JAN 5/6 up through the Ohio Valley the Eastern Great Lakes and up the St Lawrence Valley is essentially bullshit. IMAGE #1 explains WHY it is bullshit .

Here at WxRisk I dont “DO” Bullshit.

Of course that doesn't mean I am always right but the important thing here is at this stage is to look at the upper air patterns as opposed to the actual surface Maps. And when we do that -- as you can see an image #2 --- we see that the European Ensemble (EPS) handles the JAN 6-8 upper air pattern vastly differently than the operational run. .

Also please keep in mind that there's several other chances beyond may or may not happen on January 6-8. Foe example JAN 10-12. including as I mentioned many times a prolonged cold pattern for much of January

 

 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said:

Wxrisk.com

deSosnptor67ii21ai19i20m0amh256acg7uc83tugalct17t74cmga6752g  · 

 

 

ABOUT JAN 6 UPDATE AND BEYOND...

RULE NUMBER 1 = weather models come and go. Sometimes the solutions beyond three or four days makes sense and sometimes they don't. BUT the rules the atmosphere on the planet Earth do not change.

Ever. ..Models be damned. Ok?

The solution offered by the early Saturday morning 0z run of the operational or regular GFS and the European model of taking the surface LOW JAN 5/6 up through the Ohio Valley the Eastern Great Lakes and up the St Lawrence Valley is essentially bullshit. IMAGE #1 explains WHY it is bullshit .

Here at WxRisk I dont “DO” Bullshit.

Of course that doesn't mean I am always right but the important thing here is at this stage is to look at the upper air patterns as opposed to the actual surface Maps. And when we do that -- as you can see an image #2 --- we see that the European Ensemble (EPS) handles the JAN 6-8 upper air pattern vastly differently than the operational run. .

Also please keep in mind that there's several other chances beyond may or may not happen on January 6-8. Foe example JAN 10-12. including as I mentioned many times a prolonged cold pattern for much of January

 

 

Did he mean a Snoop Dogg Fo Sure or For Sure? 

[anotherman]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1872981111959077370

[mahantango#1]

48 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Did he mean a Snoop Dogg Fo Sure or For Sure? 

I guess we'll stick with Snoop

[Itstrainingtime]

56 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Thank you, and yes (although I am guilty occasionally too) the one thing that makes me cringe is seeing posts with definitive statements.  A day or two ago a statement that Saturday WILL be a rainy, coolish day looked like a sure bet.  It is currently Partly Sunny and 46 here...maybe headed for a run near 60.  Other NWS sites, except MDT, all into the 40's already. 

Thursday morning's CTP forecast for today was "Rain, mainly before 4pm". Yesterday morning it was "Rain, mainly before 1pm". Last evening they updated today's forecast once again to "Rain, mainly before 10am".

HUGE difference in practical weather, especially when it's dark shortly after 5. Thursday's forecast implied that almost all of the daylight hours today would be wet...clearly, that does not look likely.

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thursday morning's CTP forecast for today was "Rain, mainly before 4pm". Yesterday morning it was "Rain, mainly before 1pm". Last evening they updated today's forecast once again to "Rain, mainly before 10am".

HUGE difference in practical weather, especially when it's dark shortly after 5. Thursday's forecast implied that almost all of the daylight hours today would be wet...clearly, that does not look likely.

Agreed.  I forget which run/model I looked at but two days it looked like it was going to stay in the lows 40's over here today.  Now we are headed for an AN high anomaly of close to 20 degrees.   Already 52 up at elevation.   Mid 50's north of me. 

 

[mahantango#1]

Dt is on board! Wxrisk.com

ertpodsoSn6t86hfmt104um7t64mlf1c4m272clm1lh07hlm1f71h0g37i88  · 

 

 

in case you missed it....

Yes I know that if you look up on social media or on the Internet itself directly Winter forecast for 2024-25 you will see constant references to La Nina and how it always means a mild winter in the eastern US. As I stated in the WxRisk winter forecast that is not accurate. There is a huge difference between weak La Nina events vs Moderate or strong ones. The fact that other meteorologists on such as Climate Prediction Center (CPC) or TV stations or The Weather Channel or Weather Nation or ACCU- blunder etc either don't want to talk about the differences or don't know about the differences and use the same general boilerplate La Nina stuff… doesn't make it true.

It just makes them lazy.

The truth is that most meteorologists spend very little time working on any kind of beyond day 4 or 5. Mostly because when they want to undergrad School you couldn't do anything beyond four or five days and also it's because it's not their niche. (There was a recent comment from a meteorologist in the Richmond area who declared on his social media page that there is indication of any snow through the first 10 days of January). But this is what I do. I take the week to week (called S2S or sub seasonal) kind of forecasting very seriously. And just like baseball or fornicating the more you do it the better you get at it.

I am not in any way declaring victory or a win. nothing has happened yet. I think the trend is going my way and many others agree. February could be a blowtorch. and who knows about march. It is possible that we may end up only having some cold in December and serious cold in January.

But unlike the last several Winters we got ourselves a ball game boys and girls

 

[Ruin]

4 hours ago, WmsptWx said:

I think saying "it's coming, it's coming" over and over while pushing the goalposts back is wish casting. Last week it was January 5th. Now it's the 10th. This time next week it'll be the 20th. And then February 1st, and then Valentine's Day, and then March of 93 memory posts start and that's when a season is punted.

Tell me how that's not wish casting.

I feel you with that it feels it always gets pushed back till it doesn't happen or the 2 plus weeks of cold turn out to be 1 day like 3 years ago before Christmas 

[mitchnick]

Ughh...daughter and her husband got sick. Nah, covid. My wife got sick day after Christmas...nah, just tested + for covid. Nothing wrong with me...physically. 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Blizzard of 93 I think I came off the wrong way, and for that I apologize. For the record, as of now count me in the "excited for January" camp. There is much to be cautiously optimistic about.

And that was the sole basis of my "slow down" comment. There's a difference between being optimistic versus making definitive statements like "next week I'm going to be shoveling" - and those are statements that you've made repeatedly over the past few years when in the end, nothing happened.

I will never speak against your excitement and enthusiasm. I write about just that in my "day in the life" entries. But the fact remains...there's no absolutes when it comes to the weather other than what's happening outside your window now.

Again, I'm sorry I contributed to this for you.

Thanks for the kind post. We go back a long way on here. I always appreciate you sharing your knowledge, observations, personal experiences, sense of humor & voice of sound reason through the years.

Sometimes I get caught up in the hype in the Winter. Some of my responses last night & this morning were tongue in cheek replies to some what I deemed as Deb posts in the light of what could be upcoming over the next few weeks. There are certainly no absolutes in the weather as we have all learned through the years on here & beyond. Despite the scars of being let down in some Winter seasons, the joy of the hunt & occasional payoff when a Winter Storm delivers the goods always brings me back for more each year.

As @Mount Joy Snowman said this morning, there is room for all types of posters on here. This morning, my feathers were ruffled (pre-coffee lol) & I took out my frustration the wrong way.

I apologize to everyone, especially @WmsptWx for me being out of line.

We have a good group on here & I look forward to what hopefully will be a busy & entertaining time tracking in January.

[MAG5035]

I posted this like 11 days ago, and I feel like most points are still relevant. 

On 12/17/2024 at 10:04 AM, MAG5035 said:

ENSO has yet to emerge into an actual La Niña, we are and have remained at ENSO neutral all year since the Nino faded last winter.

I have my doubts we ever actually end up with an official one (which needs 5 consecutive 3 month average periods of < -0.5ºC in 3.4). With the way the week to week has been going with ENSO temps so far this month, I would expect the OND average to be another neutral once this month wraps up. What may happen in the next month or so is SST’s dip into perhaps weak Nina territory, but I wouldn’t see it as having any major influence. Models really busted on this from early in the year when most were projecting a full blown strong Nina. 

I think one of our issues with the pattern alignment stem from generally having a +NAO/AO. What we do have right now that has been missing the last I don’t know how many winters is a positive PNA that has seemed to have some staying power. That has kept a mean trough on this side of the country which has kept us cold more often than not but the +NAO/AO has kept stuff from really digging. Another issue is we’ve also been working a phase 5 MJO pretty much the whole month so far, which is not really an ideal phase to be in. The fact we’ve been so cold has been a bit of a minor miracle IMO. Without that western ridge, we likely would have been roasting. Following another cold shot coming this weekend, it does appear that the week between Christmas and New Year’s is likely to be an anomalously warm one as the EPO is slated to go positive and will likely overwhelm the CONUS with warmer air despite the continued ridging in the west (+PNA). With the MJO, Nina’s favor phases 4-6…so that’s where I feel the ENSO neutral conditions could be a good thing in the longer run as the MJO could actually be allowed to rotate into the more favorable phases at some magnitude and not stall in the bad ones. Models are already putting the MJO in Phase 7 by the end of the month. A 7-8-1 run would have a decent chance of delivering a better storm pattern for us as well. So I think we’re going to set up for a good period at some point when we get into next month, especially if we can keep the +PNA. 

So fast forwarding to today, we’re kind of where I thought we would be during this timeframe (in a warm-up). The past 30 day period has been cold more often than not with solid - anomalies in most of PA, so a break in the cold was due. Yes it’s going to rain, probably two liquid events between now and New Years.. which isn’t necessarily a bad thing in terms of the lingering drought conditions in a large portion of PA and the Northeast as a whole. It’s probably gonna be warm enough the next couple days that some stations technically may erase the negative departures for Dec (especially western PA stations) Then New Year’s Day onward we’re right back into seasonably cold weather and eventually it appears.. more anomalous cold. 

I get all the negative “it’s always two weeks+ away” sentiment to a degree. I think there’s a lot of PTSD from last year’s chasing the “biblical” 500mb looks on the longer range/weeklies at 2-4 weeks. But A, this winter is not last winter (or the one before that) and B this colder period is right on the doorstep. My biggest question for January was could we keep the western ridging (+PNA) as a persistent feature in the overall pattern and for at least the first 15 days of the month.. the answer to that appears to be yes as ensembles develop a solidly +PNA during the first week of Jan. This goes along with across the board good teleconnections with -NAO/AO and generally +EPO/WPO developing. MJO as well is looking better with modeling getting it more into 8 and 1. PNA is a big one for me though, we’ve had the other teleconnections looking good at various points the last couple winters but we were resorted to watching the Mammoth Mtn web cams while they got 6-10 feet every few days because of a monster western US trough, which naturally would imply some form of eastern US ridging in response. NOT the case so far this year. For example Denver is averaging +9ºF and Phoenix +7ºF for December (no doubt because @Voyager moved back to PA haha) 

Anyways we’ll have to see what kind of storms we can get out of this upcoming pattern, which is ultimately what puts the white gold on the ground. Hasn’t been much signs of an overly active southern stream, so timely northern stream waves and amplified pattern are probably going to be key first half of Jan. Models have been already very persistent on that 1/6 to 1/8 period for some kind of a bigger system. GFS has looked good at times, Euro has progged it as more of a mix. Way too far out to determine those details for sure. Both models have occasionally had legitimately serious cold behind that progged system as well and that’s going to need to be watched too as pattern alignment would be supportive of major arctic shots into the eastern US. To sum it up there’s no reason one can’t be positive about winter prospects getting into January.

[paweather]

6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I am getting really sick & tired of this place…

Hang in there @Blizzard of 93 this type of crap happens every winter in this forum. Let’s get some cold and snow to shut them the hell up!

[canderson]

41 minutes ago, paweather said:

Hang in there @Blizzard of 93 this type of crap happens every winter in this forum. Let’s get some cold and snow to shut them the hell up!

We’d be a lot more chill if we got actual snow! 

Hear that God?! Make it happen!

[Superstorm]

We’d be a lot more chill if we got actual snow! 
Hear that God?! Make it happen!

It’s coming. January is looking pretty awesome (on paper).


.

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

For example Denver is averaging +9ºF and Phoenix +7ºF for December (no doubt because @Voyager moved back to PA haha) 

 

Great write up as always, MAG, but I'm quoting this for a reason. I just mentioned to my wife that it'll be cold here this winter because I'm back (the past two were mild here and chilly out west) and she looked at me cross eyed as if I was plum crazy. 

It seems to be true though that cold weather follows me around the country. Unscientifically, wherever I am, there too shall the cold be... lol 

 

[canderson]

Hey cool Sunday night looks windy af 

[mahantango#1]

It has got really foggy here in the last hour.

[anotherman]

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1873126580274528634

[Itstrainingtime]

MU has been busy on X today explaining why he feels strongly that we won't see more than a light to perhaps moderate snowfall in January:

1) Dominant NW flow of cold but dry air

2) Very weak southern stream energy 

3) No west-based Atlantic block

If those modeled things materialize, forget about a bigger event.

[Blizzard of 93]

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU has been busy on X today explaining why he feels strongly that we won't see more than a light to perhaps moderate snowfall in January:

1) Dominant NW flow of cold but dry air

2) Very weak southern stream energy 

3) No west-based Atlantic block

If those modeled things materialize, forget about a bigger event.

I would be fine with stacking a couple of moderate events & then preserve the snowpack with a deep freeze.

[Blizzard of 93]

Most recent years, getting the cold in place has been our problem.

Let’s get the cold established & then take our chances with whatever systems come our way.

[CASH_COOP]

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU has been busy on X today explaining why he feels strongly that we won't see more than a light to perhaps moderate snowfall in January:

1) Dominant NW flow of cold but dry air

2) Very weak southern stream energy 

3) No west-based Atlantic block

If those modeled things materialize, forget about a bigger event.

Maybe January turns out to a cold month with frequent clippers to track. 2-4” type events followed by a refreshing cold fronts.  Having snow on the ground for 2-3 weeks or more would be fine with me. 

[Blizzard of 93]

I’m focusing now on the first potential chance with this pattern on the 5th/6th.

[CASH_COOP]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Most years, getting the cold has been our problem.

Let’s get the cold established & then take our chances with whatever systems come our way.

Agree with this to an extent but suppression would be disappointing.  Watching VA and NC getting crushed while we smoke cirrus.   Just needs to be cold enough to snow. 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I would be fine with stacking a couple of moderate events & then preserve the snowpack with a deep freeze.

 

1 minute ago, CASH_COOP said:

Maybe January turns out to a cold month with frequent clippers to track. 2-4” type events followed by a refreshing cold fronts.  Having snow on the ground for 2-3 weeks or more would be fine with me. 

I love snow on the ground that doesn't melt. And while admittedly I'm a big dog snow hunter, it's been a long time since I've had snow cover for more than a week.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, CASH_COOP said:

Agree with this to an extent but suppression would be disappointing.  Watching VA and NC getting crushed while we smoke cirrus.   Just needs to be cold enough to snow. 

That seems to be a real possibility upcoming.

[CASH_COOP]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That seems to be a real possibility upcoming.

That’s my gut feeling.   Have to wait until the pattern relaxes to get our turn.  

[Blizzard of 93]

There is a lot to be determined as the pattern gets established. A system on the 5th or 6th is becoming more likely, with the track details still several days away.

Severe cold is often over modeled at range. Yes, I think we get cold, but how far south the cold reaches & the severity is still to be determined.

Lots of possibilities & all outcomes are still on the table.

[Blizzard of 93]

The happy hour GFS is getting into the good stuff this run…