Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

My YTD rainfall could be above normal, but all it takes is one freak thunderstorm.

And you had just that if I remember correctly - didn't have a 4"+ storm in August? 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I used Greenawalt. Very good reviews on the web. 

The owner is the younger brother of a guy I graduated with.  A lot of people around here use them.  They have really exploded over the years.

[Superstorm]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

And you had just that if I remember correctly - didn't have a 4"+ storm in August? 

Yes, it was over 6".

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

Yes, it was over 6".

Much of which probably did not affect the long term ground water stats vs. run off. 

[sauss06]

12 minutes ago, canderson said:

@paweather @Itstrainingtime who did you guys use for your roof? That's my late winter/spring project and I'm looking for good recs. 

i will need one 2. Can you pay for mine too?

[canderson]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I used Greenawalt. Very good reviews on the web. 

I have a list saved in my bookmarks and they're actually on it. Great to have a personal confirmation! Thanks. 

Wanna pay for my roof too? haha

[Bubbler86]

Just now, sauss06 said:

i will need one 2. Can you pay for mine too?

Hail can pay for it. 

[canderson]

I see @sauss06 and I are on the same wavelength. 

That's scary as hell. 

[paweather]

15 minutes ago, canderson said:

@paweather @Itstrainingtime who did you guys use for your roof? That's my late winter/spring project and I'm looking for good recs. 

We used 5 star roofing company. They did some other roofs in our development. 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Yes, it was over 6".

That's right. I actually remember it well...it came during the late afternoon hours while I was sitting here in my office in Conestoga watching it to my east. It started to form over me and then just exploded and stalled over Willow Street. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

I have a list saved in my bookmarks and they're actually on it. Great to have a personal confirmation! Thanks. 

Wanna pay for my roof too? haha

Change your avatar and I'll think about it.  

But still...no. 

[sauss06]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Hail can pay for it. 

not sure insurance would fall for that. 100 year old slate 

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Hail can pay for it. 

I tried. Not enough large hail here last summer to cover it (at least without a really sketchy roof company that was saying they would and screwed over some neighbors of ours)

[GrandmasterB]

12Z Euro bumped up totals for tomorrow compared to 0Z.

As for the PSU talk…I couldn’t pass up on the cheap tickets. Hopefully, it’s not too cold and you guys are right about the outcome. Our defense can be exploited with speed.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 hours ago, WmsptWx said:

I am saying SMU is inferior. Their QB holds the ball way too much, their offensive line folds under pressure pretty easily, their secondary is ass. Their run defense is good, but you're going to see Allen and Singleton eat late in the game after Warren eats early and the defense has to pass defend. 

 

Boise State is even more inferior. They're one generational talent who has played nobody but Oregon, whose run defense sucks ass. 

 

On paper, Penn State should cruise to the semifinal where I think Indiana awaits them. Indiana is going to throw for miles on ND and Georgia has no QB nor kicker. I think this half of the bracket is State and Indiana for the taking.

I see it a bit differently with regards to Indiana.  When it comes to the 'ol "how do they look getting off the bus", Indiana is really going to be up against it with these two teams.  Hard enough to beat one team when they have a sizeable advantage in athletic talent, let alone two.  You could be right, as Georgia does have its issues right now but man, it's just hard for me to envision Indiana stacking up against them.  Not sure they have the horses to run a gauntlet like that, especially in what are de facto road games.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

I tried. Not enough large hail here last summer to cover it (at least without a really sketchy roof company that was saying they would and screwed over some neighbors of ours)

I could not even try it as I had no hail damage but lots of people get new roofs.  Pisses me off because it cost 14K.  Some companies, like you alluded to, specialize in trying to get you a free roof.  Not slate though Sauss :-)  Some insurance companies are now dropping people with roods that are too old. 

[canderson]

1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said:

12Z Euro bumped up totals for tomorrow compared to 0Z.

As for the PSU talk…I couldn’t pass up on the cheap tickets. Hopefully, it’s not too cold and you guys are right about the outcome. Our defense can be exploited with speed.

It looks pretty uncomfortable - here's CTP's grid for State College. The winds keep increasing. 

Saturday

Partly sunny, with a high near 26. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. 

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 11.

[GrandmasterB]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

It looks pretty uncomfortable - here's CTP's grid for State College. The winds keep increasing. 

 

Saturday

Partly sunny, with a high near 26. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. 

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 11.

Not great! 

[canderson]

9 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

not sure insurance would fall for that. 100 year old slate 

Did you put that roof on when you were 17? 

[sauss06]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Did you put that roof on when you were 17? 

i think my grandfather did when he was 17. 

Slate needs torn off, sheeted then shingled. ouch. If i were in my 20s, i'd do it myself. Its only like a `12/12 pitch or something

[paweather]

40 minutes ago, canderson said:

@paweather @Itstrainingtime who did you guys use for your roof? That's my late winter/spring project and I'm looking for good recs. 

7 1/2 hours later it is done. 

[Itstrainingtime]

19 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I see it a bit differently with regards to Indiana.  When it comes to the 'ol "how do they look getting off the bus", Indiana is really going to be up against it with these two teams.  Hard enough to beat one team when they have a sizeable advantage in athletic talent, let alone two.  You could be right, as Georgia does have its issues right now but man, it's just hard for me to envision Indiana stacking up against them.  Not sure they have the horses to run a gauntlet like that, especially in what are de facto road games.

I've watched Georgia play 5 or 6 times this year. I know that Atomix is really (no, like really) down on them...I sort of view them like I do the KC Chiefs. Nothing pretty about them but until they're dethroned I'd be very wary playing against them. 

And they have the Kirby factor. And he's...Smart. 

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

7 1/2 hours later it is done. 

Now onto the leak we have due to it. State Farm has been very good to us though. 

[WmsptWx]

My being down on Georgia is predicated on two things: 

 

1) Even with Carson Beck healthy, their offense was anemic. They went down 0-10 against Tennessee and Georgia Tech, running a service Academy offense had I think a 17 point lead on them? Mississippi basically tea bagged them and Alabama fell backwards while teabagging them and let Georgia come back. Tennessee letting Georgia back in that game and win it gives me incredible pause about them on their own accord and that's why I think Ohio State pushed their stool in Saturday night. But Georgia has on several occasions even with a healthy Beck stumbled out of the gates and inferior teams have gotten sizable leads. 

 

Now you can point to Georgia coming back against Tennessee and Tech and say "they're resilient," and there's a fair amount of truth to that, but Georgia Tech had some bad losses and Tennessee is, well, I think about to be exposed. This leads to make me believe that a team with a killer instinct should be able to take advantage of that and when they have their feet on the throat of the Bulldog, stomp on the windpipe. 

 

Indiana's issues against Ohio State were, in my honest opinion, big game nerves. The issues that sank them really were self-inflicted on special teams and those issues can be fixed. Notre Dame also got thrown apart by a bad USC team, and I think if they can't stop Rourke from throwing for a thousand yards, they had better run for two thousand just to escape tomorrow night. 

 

I also think Indiana plays as Curt Cignetti coaches. They have this "all gas, no brakes" approach and that kind of attitude in a bunch of kids who may not realize they're not supposed to be there makes them dangerous. 

 

2) If Beck is out for good (it looks like he needs Tommy John surgery), they're going to need to rely on their backup QB. Now he was pretty good against Texas in the second half, but uh... Texas' offense is kinda non-existent, and so he didn't really need to play out of his head. How is he going to do if he needs to win a shootout? 

 

That's my biggest question on Georgia. Will they have to play a shootout or two? The one thing the SEC does is defense. They play incredible defense. But Georgia has shown streaks of susceptibility. If their defense slips up once or twice in one of these games, they may have to play catch-up with a backup QB. How does that go?

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

My being down on Georgia is predicated on two things: 

 

1) Even with Carson Beck healthy, their offense was anemic. They went down 0-10 against Tennessee and Georgia Tech, running a service Academy offense had I think a 17 point lead on them? Mississippi basically tea bagged them and Alabama fell backwards while teabagging them and let Georgia come back. Tennessee letting Georgia back in that game and win it gives me incredible pause about them on their own accord and that's why I think Ohio State pushed their stool in Saturday night. But Georgia has on several occasions even with a healthy Beck stumbled out of the gates and inferior teams have gotten sizable leads. 

 

Now you can point to Georgia coming back against Tennessee and Tech and say "they're resilient," and there's a fair amount of truth to that, but Georgia Tech had some bad losses and Tennessee is, well, I think about to be exposed. This leads to make me believe that a team with a killer instinct should be able to take advantage of that and when they have their feet on the throat of the Bulldog, stomp on the windpipe. 

 

Indiana's issues against Ohio State were, in my honest opinion, big game nerves. The issues that sank them really were self-inflicted on special teams and those issues can be fixed. Notre Dame also got thrown apart by a bad USC team, and I think if they can't stop Rourke from throwing for a thousand yards, they had better run for two thousand just to escape tomorrow night. 

 

I also think Indiana plays as Curt Cignetti coaches. They have this "all gas, no brakes" approach and that kind of attitude in a bunch of kids who may not realize they're not supposed to be there makes them dangerous. 

 

2) If Beck is out for good (it looks like he needs Tommy John surgery), they're going to need to rely on their backup QB. Now he was pretty good against Texas in the second half, but uh... Texas' offense is kinda non-existent, and so he didn't really need to play out of his head. How is he going to do if he needs to win a shootout? 

 

That's my biggest question on Georgia. Will they have to play a shootout or two? The one thing the SEC does is defense. They play incredible defense. But Georgia has shown streaks of susceptibility. If their defense slips up once or twice in one of these games, they may have to play catch-up with a backup QB. How does that go?

Great post, well thought out points and hard to argue with much of anything. The one thing that's hard to break down, at least statistically is intangibles. And to your point about Indiana not knowing they should be there...well, Georgia has that big-game experience. Indiana players say that they expect to be here...Georgia players actually believe it in themselves. 

[Bubbler86]

If I am ever out of work, I am hiring Brooklynwx (Ma Board) to be my pitch person with HR.  Dude could make Luigi look like a solid job candidate with the positive spins. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

[MAG5035]

New CTP grids for tomorrow.

Meso models have been showing better development of WAA snows ahead of the approaching primary clipper low tomorrow morning in the central and northern tier counties. Seems quite close to an advisory event being advertised on the 18z 3k NAM, RGEM, and esp 18z HRRR from CTP’s I-80 corridor north (perhaps down to KAOO on the 99 corridor). So wouldn’t be surprised to see some headlines up later this eve.  It’s a pretty decent low as far as clippers go but this fades and hands off to secondary development off the coast, which leads to some questions of how much precip translates over into the Sus Valley, which seems to be a weak spot between the primary and secondary handoff in the progged alignment. Also an inverted trough element to this as well which could focus a more narrow band of snowfall somewhere in eastern PA later Friday (likely aligned NW-SE north and east of MDT).

PSU game Saturday def looks cold, though I’m not really buying the SMU not being able to handle the cold angle. I think Penn State should handle its business but not because it’s too cold for SMU to handle. Noon kickoff will be “warmest” time of the day with UNV temps progged around the mid 20s, Winds are brisk but not insane (gusts to 25). Might be some lingering snow showers, especially in the morning. If this were a night game I could see temps being more of a factor since Sat night will likely go well into the teens. The one thing that could be an issue for fans is whatever happens tomorrow. 1-2” is in the grids now for State College. They get the high end of that or some kind of overachieving event that’s a bit more and that could make for some parking issues in the grass lots. 

[Ruin]

just enough to tease us and then local weather will say not enough snow to be called a white christmas 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Ruin said:

just enough to tease us and then local weather will say not enough snow to be called a white christmas 

Any snow that falls tomorrow, if 1" or under,  will be gone by Christmas.