Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[canderson]

Tomorrow evening looks like e might get some severe weather - especially wind. I imagine the budge the ENH risk north. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

This man allows hate crimes on a website he owns and operates called American Weather Forums

[Yardstickgozinya]

This post includes both the Spc and Noaa forcast for today. They have been trimmed down only to include localized convective and precipitation details to reduce clutter.

SPC AC 050548

Day 1 Convective Outlook  

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

  ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE

   EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

 ...SUMMARY...

   Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind

   gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the

   eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe

   storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also

   from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic.

 ...Synopsis...

 An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning,

   and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east

   across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and

   early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt

   will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic

   and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection

   will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an

   eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far

   north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with

   northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. 

  The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence

   of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to

   severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible,

   with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA

   where low-level moisture will be greater.

 

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A deep surface low tracking west of Pennsylvania into the Great
Lakes will set up an active period of weather on Wednesday,
with several threats to speak about. An enhanced (55-60kt) LLJ
and surging PWATs should result in a band of moderate to heavy
rain tracking east across the area between 12Z-21Z Wed. CAMs
support QPF in excess of one inch across portions of the Endless
Mountains and northern tier. After this initial slug of
rainfall, a second round of convection is likely to accompany
an arriving cold/occluded front during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Latest SPC outlook paints most of Central and Southern PA within
a slight risk of severe weather late Wed afternoon and evening.
Instability in recent model guidance remains somewhat limited
(less than 500 J/kg) but still several hundred J/kg in concert
with strong shear justifies the SLGT risk of damaging wind gusts
with a broken line of convection along the front. Although the main
threat remains locally damaging wind gusts, there will be
favorable shear parameters for large hail (across the
southwest part of the forecast area.

The aforementioned rainfall, coupled with remaining snow on the
ground across the northern tier will bring about rises on
streams. At this time, rainfall alone is not expected to bring
about any flooding concerns, but the combination of snow melt
and the wildcard of potential ice jams means there is an
elevated risk of flooding Wednesday afternoon and evening over
the N Mtns. Recent MARFC SWE across the N Mtns is in the 0.25
to 0.50 inch range.

[Yardstickgozinya]

We have been very lucky to have had several systems time up well with strong solar activity to help drive lightning activity going back to late last summer. unfortunately, activity is quite inadequate to be much of a factor today.  I'm not saying we won't see lightning  today because it's far from the only parameter.

[Voyager]

So I've been a bit out of the weather loop with being in orientation, but it looks like today is not an all day soaker, but more of a 6 to 8 hour event.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Overnight low of 44, up to 53 with a RH of 85% when I left the house.  Let’s get wet. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

22 minutes ago, Voyager said:

So I've been a bit out of the weather loop with being in orientation, but it looks like today is not an all day soaker, but more of a 6 to 8 hour event.

 You should have showers moving in soon with bouts of heavy rain and possibly a strong/severe storm (northern edge of a QLCS ) starting around 11:30am and lasting until around  2:30pm. Then we get a break before showers and storms begin to form and move back into the area sometime after 4:00pm. Thers slight potential for low top super cells later this afternoon, and the  HRRR is hinting at some showers and storms lingering until around midnight

[Yardstickgozinya]

40 minutes ago, Voyager said:

So I've been a bit out of the weather loop with being in orientation, but it looks like today is not an all day soaker, but more of a 6 to 8 hour event.

Don't take my word for it . I suck lol.

[mahantango#1]

35 minutes ago, Voyager said:

So I've been a bit out of the weather loop with being in orientation, but it looks like today is not an all day soaker, but more of a 6 to 8 hour event.

Sound like you might need some weather orientation again. And I know of a special someone (in another thread) that would provide you with a double downing. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

55 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Don't take my word for it . I suck lol.

I don't even know where you're at . I  based that on my local. Make note that is my own forcast looking at things. 

[mahantango#1]

Meteorologist Brett Thackara 

ordetnpsoSgthc5c129uiaaf79m0g787712ia46uh44hc2g3882h0au28mi0  · 

#WINDY WEDNESDAY:

Two lines of potential storms today. One between 11am-3pm & another between 7-11pm. Gusty winds will occur with both and some isolated damaging wind gusts are possible today & this evening. The tornado threat is very low, but can't rule it out. #27Weather #PAwx

We will keep you posted on any #severeweather that develops today.

[mahantango#1]

This was from 10 hrs ago. Don't know if this has any merit this morning. 

70 kt low level jet at 850mb (6500 ft) over lower Susq tomorrow.

[ChescoWx]

Some much needed heavy rain on the way today. Most of the rain will fall over a 6 hour period between noon and 6pm today. Rainfall amounts should be between 0.75" to 1.25" across much of the area. Mild today before we fall back to near normal for the rest of the week through the weekend.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Elliott had mentioned yesterday that he wasn't buying it with regard to today's severe potential, noting the low dew points and a low-level temp inversion in place.

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Elliott had mentioned yesterday that he wasn't buying it with regard to today's severe potential, noting the low dew points and a low-level temp inversion in place.

Going to be tough to get the jet mixed down - winds re still going to be an issue through Friday. 40+ until then. 

[canderson]

It has been a LONG time since we have had a dark, rainy day 

[pawatch]

54 degrees and picked up .39” today so far. 19 mph wind gust.