Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Yardstickgozinya]

I hope you're ok out there @Bubbler86. I was  thinking of you today as the next system comes into the range of the hrrr.

[Voyager]

57 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

18z GFS still on the snow train this weekend
 

Thank God no other model shows anything like that and CTP is partly to mostly sunny the entire weekend.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, AccuChris said:

18z GFS still on the snow train this weekend


.

Wow, 2 runs in a row…

Hopefully it gets some company tonight!

[WmsptWx]

18z GFS

 

 

[mahantango#1]

JB said he's not ruling the gfs out. Maybe it can score the coup this time. 

[ChescoWx]

Below is the February 2025 Climate Summary for Chester County PA. February being the 3rd consecutive winter month this season to feature below normal temperatures. This was the first time this has happened since the winter of 2013-14. With an average winter (December through February) temperature of 31.6 degrees this was the 60th coldest winter with records back 132 years to the winter of 1894-95. It was also our coldest winter in 10 years since the winter of 2014-15.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

JB said he's not ruling the gfs out. Maybe it can score the coup this time. 

JB says a lot of things.

[Yardstickgozinya]

[Yardstickgozinya]

SPC AC 040614

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
   ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
   SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of
   producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it
   overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid
   Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.

   ...Discussion...
   The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still
   appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into
   southwestern Quebec during this period.  Associated strong
   lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area
   east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially
   including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around
   850 mb,  east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue
   Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward
   into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in
   advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of
   the Appalachians until Wednesday evening.

   Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level
   moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut
   off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. 
   However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the
   Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina
   coast.

   Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much
   of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the
   order of 500 J/kg or less.  However, given the strength of the wind
   fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at
   least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a
   broad area.  

   ...Southern Mid Atlantic...
   It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the
   eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for
   substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina
   Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain
   Wednesday morning into afternoon.  Although forecast soundings
   continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will
   not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does
   appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface
   dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to
   near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum
   transport.  Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level
   hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are
   possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in
   excess of 65 kt.

   ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic...
   Early period convective precipitation may contribute to
   boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing
   insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the
   day.  Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model
   forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic
   profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective
   instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.  Guidance
   has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered
   pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the
   environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to
   scattered organized convection, including supercells.

   ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025