Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Jns2183]

19 was the low at home. Looos like 22 here in DC. 
Big fire risk today. 

Seems a bit cold for big fire risk

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[Blizzard of 93]

The Canadian is still trying for next weekend.

[Blizzard of 93]

The GFS splits the systems next weekend, with one going to the north & one going out to the south.

[WmsptWx]

51 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Seems a bit cold for big fire risk

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A massive wild fire during a cold day is a level of Hell I've never imagined.

[canderson]

34 and windy and still the sun is damn warm. Car AC having to run. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Seeing that most of the top posters are on a break atm I see no need to comply with there silly rules at this point. Flatheadsickness Mode Activated.  

[SnowPlowGuy88]

56 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Seeing that most of the top posters are on a break atm I see no need to comply with there silly rules at this point. Flatheadsickness Mode Activated.  

I bought a sick ass Eagles Super Bowl T Shirt. Check out heavyslime.com. I got the now sold out championship shirt. Pic is too large to upload. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

5 minutes ago, SnowPlowGuy88 said:

I bought a sick ass Eagles Super Bowl T Shirt. Check out heavyslime.com. I got the now sold out championship shirt. Pic is too large to upload. 

I apologize but this is quite random. Has @SnowPlowGuy88account been compromised?

[Yardstickgozinya]

I apologize @SnowPlowGuy88I only reported your post because it seems suspicious.  Nothing personal just precautionary. 

[canderson]

Thursday will bring strong winds - should reach advisory level. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

  Not a lot of change since yesterday in coverage or severe probabilities in the south  for tuesdays event . NOAA does mention the chance for some good rain and perhaps some thunder for our area in the forcast discussion. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

SPC AC 030550

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
   TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
   CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps
   a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few
   tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi
   Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night.

   ...Discussion...
   Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments
   into and through this period.  However, better consensus is evident
   among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale
   pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. 
   Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the
   Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains
   through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night,
   accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis.  

   Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and
   deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through
   northern Illinois during this period.  In the wake of the cyclone, a
   substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the
   southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower
   Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday.  This may be preceded by a more
   modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the
   outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of
   the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge
   shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying
   large-scale mid/upper troughing.

   A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the
   western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across
   eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting
   eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley.  In
   response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models
   suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will
   probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late
   Tuesday night.

   Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially
   extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through
   southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture
   return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable
   surface-based layer.  However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output
   still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while
   developing eastward through the day.

   Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated
   and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale
   ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to
   support extensive convective development across the interior U.S.
   Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least
   a conditional risk for severe storms.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...
   The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone
   across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary
   initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this
   period.  As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the
   southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it
   contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave
   perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions
   may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm
   cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells.

   Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may
   include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer
   on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi
   during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for
   supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes.  With the
   strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the
   convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential
   remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster
   developing along/above a maturing cold pool

   Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface
   thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the
   large-scale forcing.  Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast
   soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating
   factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential,
   particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the
   eastern Gulf Coast states.

   ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 0713Z (2:13AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Yardstickgozinya]

SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A milder return southwest flow on the backside of departing
high pressure begins Monday. Model RH time sections support
abundant sunshine, which should help temps recover to near
seasonal averages by Monday afternoon.

A warm front lifting through the E Grt Lks is likely to spread
increasing cloudiness into the region Monday night into Tuesday,
with a slight chance of a shower over the NW Mtns. A
strengthening southerly flow will advect increasingly mild air
into Central PA with GEFS 2m temp anomalies supportive of high
temps several degrees above seasonal normals by Tuesday
afternoon.

A sprawling area of slow moving low pressure will bring showers
to the region late Tuesday night and Wednesday, with general
thunder in the warm sector a possibility over our southern tier
as cold front crosses the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10 PM Update...Main game is still Wed-Wed night as a mature
cyclone moves through. Holding onto schc/chc TS for the srn half
or so of the CWA Wed aftn/eve. Post-frontal winds should be
close to advy for many, esp the higher elevations on Thurs.
We`ll also continue to keep the max temps colder than NBM
guidance on Thurs as wrn locations may have temps drop slightly
thru the day.

Prev...
Overall still looking at a deep storm system lifting northeast
from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This
system will bring mild temperatures, gusty winds, and widespread
showers to the area on Wednesday. Since the system is lifting
northward, this will likely limit the adverse weather.

However, even with the system pulling northward, timing of the
cold front, strong dynamics, and time of day, will support some
chance of thunder. Have a slight chance of thunder late in the
day on Wed.

Colder temperatures return behind this departing system, into
the later part of the week.

A cold front next weekend could bring some light precipitation
to the area late week, but not expecting any big systems at
this point.

[Yardstickgozinya]

I apologize. I could swear I read something about high qpf somewhere. There is no mention of good rain in the forcast discussion atp.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Slight risk touches the southe east part of our board Wednesday. 

[mahantango#1]

3 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I apologize. I could swear I read something about high qpf somewhere. There is no mention of good rain in the forcast discussion atp.

Wednesday

 

Rain before 4pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. High near 58. South wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Wednesday Night

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 10pm, then showers between 10pm and 1am. Low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

39 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Wednesday

 

Rain before 4pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. High near 58. South wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Wednesday Night

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 10pm, then showers between 10pm and 1am. Low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

 

Lol ok so I did read about the chance for heavy rain but I guess i never copied it or it just got added. I was super stoned and confused from the wake and bake lol. 

A deep surface low is progged to track west of PA into the Grt
Lks Wednesday. Ahead of this system, a 50-60kt southerly low
level jet and associated plume of Gulf moisture is progged to
sweep across PA. A ribbon of +3-4SD pwats, combined with strong
upper level diffluence ahead of the upper trough, should
support a band of moderate to heavy rain the first half of Wednesday,
followed by a round of PM convection along the trailing
cold/occluded front.

Elevated instability and strong large scale forcing in the
model guidance supports a chance of PM tsra across the entire
area Wed. However, the focus for possible severe weather is over
the southern tier of the state, where more appreciable
instability is possible ahead of a weak triple-point low.

Current EPS plumes suggest rainfall totals by late Wed are
likely to range between 0.75 and 1 inch over the bulk of
Central PA, with orographic enhancement leading to totals close
to 1.5 inches over the higher ridgetops of Sullivan/Schuylkill
Counties. This amount of rain by itself should not cause
flooding issues based on latest flash flood/headwater guidance
from the RFC. However, will have to watch for possible localized
ice jam issues over the N Mtns.

[mahantango#1]

16 was the low.

 

[WmsptWx]

Tomorrow's threat in the LA/MS area looks kinda blah right now. Wednesday may be a severe day around the trainer and SE.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

4 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Tomorrow's threat in the LA/MS area looks kinda blah right now. Wednesday may be a severe day around the trainer and SE.

Well, I'm 9 miles ESE of @Itstrainingtime so maybe that'll be enough to get it done ha.  Low of 20 here.  Next week could see our first 70s around the area.

[ChescoWx]

Another chilly day today before we warm up and get wet by midweek. We again trend chillier to below normal temperatures by the end of the week. Rain looks to arrive by Wednesday morning and continue most of the day with some spots seeing upwards of 1 inch of rain.

[AccuChris]

12z GFS says buckle up next weekend lol


.

[canderson]

39 at 1 pm

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, AccuChris said:

12z GFS says buckle up next weekend lol


.

It sure does haha.  Would be nice to see some other model support, although a couple of others have something quasi-close to that, if you squint hard enough.  It's probably just a one-off but who knows.  A boy can dream.  Either way, this is shaping up to be a classic up and down March.