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Central PA Winter 2024/2025


Voyager
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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

The potentially good news, it that we have about 5-6 model runs to keep the drama alive and well.  Pace yourself w/ the fingernail chewin.  

Like some of us have been suggesting, a norther correction (based on base state for me) was a legit possibility, but after the year we've been having, I've little faith/confidence in that, but it has been in the back of my mind since late last week.  Just thought itd happen a tad sooner.  Dunno how this shakes down, but it'd be nice to see this pull back west a bit.  For now, its just one model run.

I could be wrong but still thinks the PV wins out. 

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16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Second question of the day - just for my own curiosity, did we verify the High Wind Warning that was issued? I read that there are 2 pieces of criteria:

  • Sustained winds of 40 mph
  • Any gust that exceeds 58 mph

Highest winds gusts were all over the place from @canderson CTP report yesterday, a lot of areas fell below the threshold and some were above. If it verified at MDT does that validate the warning? (And I don't recall what MDT's top gust was) 

Maytown had a gust last Thursday of 58 mph prior to any wind statement issued. From this event the top gust was "just" 48 mph. 

My sons ambient weather station recorded a 63mph gust Sunday night. He lives out in the open on a hill outside of Berrysburg.

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The ice jam, as seen from high above, in Picture Rocks, PA along Rt. 220 in Eastern Lycoming County.
▶️ My new video will go live today on my YouTube channel showing this ice jam from the banks and from the air! Check that out on the Storm Chaser Eli Roberts YouTube channel at 3 PM today.
A half-length long section of Muncy Creek is jammed full of 1' thick huge blocks of ice. Even though water is moving under the ice, if some of this ice gets stuck underneath, it's possible Picture Rocks could see flooding as a result. For now, water continues to flow past the jam.— in Picture Rocks.
Cold weather over the next couple of days will continue building ice along creeks and streams, including here. Watch for changing conditions along creeks and streams and keep an eye on ice conditions.
Picture Rocks, to Hughesville and to Muncy should be watching Muncy Creek as this ice jam will eventually break up and move down stream towards the Susquehanna River.
Have a great day!
Eli,
May be an image of road, covered bridge, ski slope and text
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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Second question of the day - just for my own curiosity, did we verify the High Wind Warning that was issued? I read that there are 2 pieces of criteria:

  • Sustained winds of 40 mph
  • Any gust that exceeds 58 mph

Highest winds gusts were all over the place from @canderson CTP report yesterday, a lot of areas fell below the threshold and some were above. If it verified at MDT does that validate the warning? (And I don't recall what MDT's top gust was) 

Maytown had a gust last Thursday of 58 mph prior to any wind statement issued. From this event the top gust was "just" 48 mph. 

I think sustained winds got us there. IIRC it had to be sustained to 3 minutes or something. My highest gust was 59. Harrisburg’s was 56. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

The fates of the universe keep stringing our hopes.

I will say, as alluded to earlier, I would count on a coating to 1" possibilities anywhere in the LSV when the trough/500 swings through and sparks some qpf.  Not everyone but think anyone could see it. 

 

Hopefully not me. Please keep it out of the Skook. I'm pretty much done with winter (along with a lot of other things in life) right now.

I'm in a pretty dark place with not much hope of getting out of it.

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1 hour ago, paweather said:

I could be wrong but still thinks the PV wins out. 

I think it absolutely will.  BUT, what one can hope for is a little better interaction w/ the SL and the ULL.  Thats all I'm rootin for.  GFS just showed a touch of that happening.  Not much, but a small step twds a little somethin.  By HH it could jog back S, but for now we hope for whatever we can eek out of it...which is no mucho down here.

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Bring it...

image.thumb.png.050340c92cf189bfb60c01f7842d173c.png

 

U like southern sliders eh...  J/k

Yeah lookin over the med/long range, we are not yet done w/ more chances at something....or nothing ;)

I'm really happy to see maps like this.  Lets keep the train rolling as long as we can, cause we are runnin shorter on time for a pattern reload.  

GFS looked ripe w/ a continuation of chances.  I like it. 

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33 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

U like southern sliders eh...  J/k

Yeah lookin over the med/long range, we are not yet done w/ more chances at something....or nothing ;)

I'm really happy to see maps like this.  Lets keep the train rolling as long as we can, cause we are runnin shorter on time for a pattern reload.  

GFS looked ripe w/ a continuation of chances.  I like it. 

I know you are kidding but yea pipeline options and cold air nearby is what I am lookin for on 300 hr maps. 

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Saw a post in the MA thread of someone who went from .1" up to .2" of QPF from the latest Euro run. I thought to myself "there's another guy with a bump of white powder."

Speaking of qpf, here is a kick in the groin.  PAweather 540 line going out to the oil rigs as well.   JNS special. 

image.thumb.png.39d06ccef2852228f19b4d891dd86f13.png

 

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Well...we lost the NAM. In a big way too. Pretty much all guidance is now aligned. Time for a scenic trip across the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel. 

Nice choice.

I made my OBX vacation today so I  have summer on my mind. I'm really, really ready to move on from consecutive winter failure number 4.

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