paweather Posted Tuesday at 02:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:53 PM 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: The potentially good news, it that we have about 5-6 model runs to keep the drama alive and well. Pace yourself w/ the fingernail chewin. Like some of us have been suggesting, a norther correction (based on base state for me) was a legit possibility, but after the year we've been having, I've little faith/confidence in that, but it has been in the back of my mind since late last week. Just thought itd happen a tad sooner. Dunno how this shakes down, but it'd be nice to see this pull back west a bit. For now, its just one model run. I could be wrong but still thinks the PV wins out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Tuesday at 03:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:07 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Tuesday at 03:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:08 PM 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Second question of the day - just for my own curiosity, did we verify the High Wind Warning that was issued? I read that there are 2 pieces of criteria: Sustained winds of 40 mph Any gust that exceeds 58 mph Highest winds gusts were all over the place from @canderson CTP report yesterday, a lot of areas fell below the threshold and some were above. If it verified at MDT does that validate the warning? (And I don't recall what MDT's top gust was) Maytown had a gust last Thursday of 58 mph prior to any wind statement issued. From this event the top gust was "just" 48 mph. My sons ambient weather station recorded a 63mph gust Sunday night. He lives out in the open on a hill outside of Berrysburg. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Tuesday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:18 PM Pennsylvania Weather Watchers Storm Chaser Eli Roberts · oospetSdrn789g1mlg36m5c2i18i9i63h4gmu773cgl1g423f1iu80uc6ai3 · The ice jam, as seen from high above, in Picture Rocks, PA along Rt. 220 in Eastern Lycoming County. My new video will go live today on my YouTube channel showing this ice jam from the banks and from the air! Check that out on the Storm Chaser Eli Roberts YouTube channel at 3 PM today. A half-length long section of Muncy Creek is jammed full of 1' thick huge blocks of ice. Even though water is moving under the ice, if some of this ice gets stuck underneath, it's possible Picture Rocks could see flooding as a result. For now, water continues to flow past the jam.— in Picture Rocks. Cold weather over the next couple of days will continue building ice along creeks and streams, including here. Watch for changing conditions along creeks and streams and keep an eye on ice conditions. Picture Rocks, to Hughesville and to Muncy should be watching Muncy Creek as this ice jam will eventually break up and move down stream towards the Susquehanna River. Have a great day! Eli, 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Tuesday at 04:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:06 PM 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Second question of the day - just for my own curiosity, did we verify the High Wind Warning that was issued? I read that there are 2 pieces of criteria: Sustained winds of 40 mph Any gust that exceeds 58 mph Highest winds gusts were all over the place from @canderson CTP report yesterday, a lot of areas fell below the threshold and some were above. If it verified at MDT does that validate the warning? (And I don't recall what MDT's top gust was) Maytown had a gust last Thursday of 58 mph prior to any wind statement issued. From this event the top gust was "just" 48 mph. I think sustained winds got us there. IIRC it had to be sustained to 3 minutes or something. My highest gust was 59. Harrisburg’s was 56. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Tuesday at 04:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:19 PM GFS still trying to stir up some precip up here this weekend. Close to 1" of snow for much of Eastern PA right now. A little spotty on snow map coverage. A shallow wave comes in under and tries to form a new low off NC. Just enough lift to see snow break out Sat night into Sun AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Tuesday at 04:22 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 04:22 PM 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: The fates of the universe keep stringing our hopes. I will say, as alluded to earlier, I would count on a coating to 1" possibilities anywhere in the LSV when the trough/500 swings through and sparks some qpf. Not everyone but think anyone could see it. Hopefully not me. Please keep it out of the Skook. I'm pretty much done with winter (along with a lot of other things in life) right now. I'm in a pretty dark place with not much hope of getting out of it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Tuesday at 04:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:25 PM 1 hour ago, paweather said: I could be wrong but still thinks the PV wins out. I think it absolutely will. BUT, what one can hope for is a little better interaction w/ the SL and the ULL. Thats all I'm rootin for. GFS just showed a touch of that happening. Not much, but a small step twds a little somethin. By HH it could jog back S, but for now we hope for whatever we can eek out of it...which is no mucho down here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Tuesday at 04:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:50 PM Bring it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Tuesday at 05:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:06 PM 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Bring it... U like southern sliders eh... J/k Yeah lookin over the med/long range, we are not yet done w/ more chances at something....or nothing I'm really happy to see maps like this. Lets keep the train rolling as long as we can, cause we are runnin shorter on time for a pattern reload. GFS looked ripe w/ a continuation of chances. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Tuesday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:36 PM 33 minutes ago, pasnownut said: U like southern sliders eh... J/k Yeah lookin over the med/long range, we are not yet done w/ more chances at something....or nothing I'm really happy to see maps like this. Lets keep the train rolling as long as we can, cause we are runnin shorter on time for a pattern reload. GFS looked ripe w/ a continuation of chances. I like it. I know you are kidding but yea pipeline options and cold air nearby is what I am lookin for on 300 hr maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Tuesday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:46 PM 3 hours ago, Superstorm said: Jan, 2000 lol the mid Atlantic weenies also mentioned Jan 2000. If only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted Tuesday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:46 PM Bring on spring 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Tuesday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:52 PM 5 minutes ago, Ruin said: Bring on spring It starts in 10 days but you may not be happy when stepping outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Tuesday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:56 PM 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It starts in 10 days and you will not be happy. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Tuesday at 06:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:02 PM 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: You are on a roll lately! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Tuesday at 06:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:05 PM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: You are on a roll lately! Saw a post in the MA thread of someone who went from .1" up to .2" of QPF from the latest Euro run. I thought to myself "there's another guy with a bump of white powder." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Tuesday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:11 PM 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Saw a post in the MA thread of someone who went from .1" up to .2" of QPF from the latest Euro run. I thought to myself "there's another guy with a bump of white powder." Speaking of qpf, here is a kick in the groin. PAweather 540 line going out to the oil rigs as well. JNS special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Tuesday at 06:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:29 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted Tuesday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:30 PM 33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Actually I will be very happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Tuesday at 06:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:41 PM 10 minutes ago, Ruin said: Actually I will be very happy Seriously...I truly do hope you will be. And I hope your posting reflects that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted Tuesday at 07:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:15 PM 45 minutes ago, Ruin said: Actually I will be very happy 45 minutes ago, Ruin said: Actually I will be very happy I will not be. I'm ready for warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Tuesday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:42 PM 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Here we go again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Tuesday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:57 PM 14 minutes ago, paweather said: Here we go again! Most of that is rain on the EC but was a lot of qpf and worth a mention. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Tuesday at 08:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:07 PM Well...we lost the NAM. In a big way too. Pretty much all guidance is now aligned. Time for a scenic trip across the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Tuesday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:14 PM 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Well...we lost the NAM. In a big way too. Pretty much all guidance is now aligned. Time for a scenic trip across the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel. An expected fold unfortunately. It has been a bad winter for the Nam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Tuesday at 08:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:16 PM 18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Most of that is rain on the EC but was a lot of qpf and worth a mention. Oh absolutely definitely worth a mention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Tuesday at 08:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:16 PM 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Well...we lost the NAM. In a big way too. Pretty much all guidance is now aligned. Time for a scenic trip across the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel. Norfolk for the win! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 08:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:19 PM 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Well...we lost the NAM. In a big way too. Pretty much all guidance is now aligned. Time for a scenic trip across the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel. Nice choice. I made my OBX vacation today so I have summer on my mind. I'm really, really ready to move on from consecutive winter failure number 4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Tuesday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:23 PM 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nice choice. I made my OBX vacation today so I have summer on my mind. I'm really, really ready to move on from consecutive winter failure number 4. Me too! The PV burns us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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