Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Bubbler86]

The GFS was not Happy this hour... slightly regressing from the 12Z.    As JNS pointed out the lowest level of pressures are way south. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here’s the latest from @psuhoffman :

Honestly…If all the globals looked like the NAM right now I’d be sweating bullets that it could trend further NW given a closed H5 and h7 low tracking through Ohio and PA.  Honestly that’s normally a snow to mix type track for us. For reference March 2017 Dec 2020 and Feb 2021 had similar mid and upper level tracks.  If I was looking the h5 of a long range run like I often do first when I flipped to the surface I’d kinda expect to see a central PA snow jack type storm. 

The extremely cold air mass and 1050 high helps mitigate that here. But remember when someone was throwing out March 2001 because of the h5 similarities. That was modeled to miss us south all week and Mets were saying what I am now, that it “should” be more north. Then at 48 hours it came north…and just kept going lol. 

Now wouldn’t that be the ultimate kick in the nuts. If tomorrow all the models come back north and show us getting 20” and we throw a party. Then they keep going and it ends up a central PA jack and we get snow to rain!  

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here’s the latest from @psuhoffman :

Honestly…If all the globals looked like the NAM right now I’d be sweating bullets that it could trend further NW given a closed H5 and h7 low tracking through Ohio and PA.  Honestly that’s normally a snow to mix type track for us. For reference March 2017 Dec 2020 and Feb 2021 had similar mid and upper level tracks.  If I was looking the h5 of a long range run like I often do first when I flipped to the surface I’d kinda expect to see a central PA snow jack type storm. 

The extremely cold air mass and 1050 high helps mitigate that here. But remember when someone was throwing out March 2001 because of the h5 similarities. That was modeled to miss us south all week and Mets were saying what I am now, that it “should” be more north. Then at 48 hours it came north…and just kept going lol. 

Now wouldn’t that be the ultimate kick in the nuts. If tomorrow all the models come back north and show us getting 20” and we throw a party. Then they keep going and it ends up a central PA jack and we get snow to rain!  

Don't worry about the good info from bubbler and grandmaster.     

[mahantango#1]

23 minutes ago, Ruin said:

cant even get the next days weather right lol smh yeah they said 55 for me here I got to 40 and that was it down to 36 all rdy 

Same here peaked to 41.4 this morning then went back to 36 basically the rest of the day.

[Jns2183]

The GFS was not Happy this hour... slightly regressing from the 12Z.    As JNS pointed out the lowest level of pressures are way south. 

The low made a several hundred mile jump in a 3 hour period to latch onto convection in the Gulf. You would think a low would think it would spring a low further north than Jacksonville according to it's own precipitation map.

It really boils down to is where that energy ejects from the Rockies. That event is 48 hours away and still all over the map

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[mahantango#1]

At this conjecture, what are everyone's feelings on this storm coming more north? Mine is I'm on the fence at this point. Tomorrow probably later in the day there should be a much better consensus of where this is going.

[GrandmasterB]

Just a nut kick progression from 66 to 96 at 500. 

[canderson]

The GFS might e right but it’s absolutely garbage imo right now. 

[Blizzard of 93]

18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Don't worry about the good info from bubbler and grandmaster.     

Lol, you guys have been making great posts, thanks.

I just liked PSU’s post, especially since he mentioned Central PA, so I brought it over here to share.

[Caveman]

With the mid-level low at that position and intensity, how can it not hold onto the surface low?  When you see a closed 500 mb low at that position any time of year...be aware!

[MAG5035]

It touched 38ºF here early this afternoon but it couldn’t have been for more than an hour or so. That’s how most of these CAD ice events roll around here despite whatever major warm push any model ever shows. Not to mention the surface low tracked right through PA and not the lakes… there wasn’t ever going to be a major warm push even in the southern tier. 

We were back to snow before 4 on the back end and now the upslope is starting to set up along with the winds ramping up. Winds weren’t too crazy right after FROPA but last 10-15 min have had some pretty big gusts. That plus the sideways snow already has the roads deteriorating again. Temp down to 28ºF. Other than the compaction of the new snow from the ice, there was little to no real melting of anything. 

Surprised no one noticed CTP and PBZ put Somerset and Westmoreland/Fayette Ridges zones in a blizzard warning through a good portion of tomorrow. I’m sure Cambria is occasionally going to have those type of conditions as well. 

[Jns2183]

It touched 38ºF here early this afternoon but it couldn’t have been for more than an hour or so. That’s how most of these CAD ice events roll around here despite whatever major warm push any model ever shows. Not to mention the surface low tracked right through PA and not the lakes… there wasn’t ever going to be a major warm push even in the southern tier. 
We were back to snow before 4 on the back end and now the upslope is starting to set up along with the winds ramping up. Winds weren’t too crazy right after FROPA but last 10-15 min have had some pretty big gusts. That plus the sideways snow already has the roads deteriorating again. Temp down to 28ºF. Other than the compaction of the new snow from the ice, there was little to no real melting of anything. 
Surprised no one noticed CTP and PBZ put Somerset and Westmoreland/Fayette Ridges zones in a blizzard warning through a good portion of tomorrow. I’m sure Cambria is occasionally going to have those type of conditions as well. 

First blizzard warnings for them since 2016

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[canderson]

8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

It touched 38ºF here early this afternoon but it couldn’t have been for more than an hour or so. That’s how most of these CAD ice events roll around here despite whatever major warm push any model ever shows. Not to mention the surface low tracked right through PA and not the lakes… there wasn’t ever going to be a major warm push even in the southern tier. 

We were back to snow before 4 on the back end and now the upslope is starting to set up along with the winds ramping up. Winds weren’t too crazy right after FROPA but last 10-15 min have had some pretty big gusts. That plus the sideways snow already has the roads deteriorating again. Temp down to 28ºF. Other than the compaction of the new snow from the ice, there was little to no real melting of anything. 

Surprised no one noticed CTP and PBZ put Somerset and Westmoreland/Fayette Ridges zones in a blizzard warning through a good portion of tomorrow. I’m sure Cambria is occasionally going to have those type of conditions as well. 

Had not seen that - wild weather across the state the past two days and moving into the next few.  

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Wild weather indeed. We’re getting a bit of everything and more yet to come. The uncertainty breeds excitement. Gusts are ramping up here quickly. And oh yeah, tomorrow’s a holiday (I know not for some) so MJS is making orange crushes for he and the Mrs. Whoopsy. 

[canderson]

First gust to 50 - 54 just now. 

[canderson]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Wild weather indeed. We’re getting a bit of everything and more yet to come. The uncertainty breeds excitement. Gusts are ramping up here quickly. And oh yeah, tomorrow’s a holiday (I know not for some) so MJS is making orange crushes for he and the Mrs. Whoopsy. 

I’m gonna get so drunk I pass out, otherwise I won’t sleep. It’s not smart but I’m of tomorrow so will deal with the consequences then. 

[Itstrainingtime]

I'll be in the office as usual. 

Top wind gust so far is 43mph.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

12 minutes ago, canderson said:

I’m gonna get so drunk I pass out, otherwise I won’t sleep. It’s not smart but I’m of tomorrow so will deal with the consequences then. 

Is this your way of getting through the wind? Judge free zone my friend 

[Jns2183]

Wild weather indeed. We’re getting a bit of everything and more yet to come. The uncertainty breeds excitement. Gusts are ramping up here quickly. And oh yeah, tomorrow’s a holiday (I know not for some) so MJS is making orange crushes for he and the Mrs. Whoopsy. 

I just got myself a 4 pack of some new 9% double IPA from new trail and the first one went down like water. Whatever was wrong with me Thursday and Friday passed by Saturday. I also had to deal with 4 9/10 year old girls sleeping over last night for my daughter's birthday.

So far the wind has been way less than I dealt with last week, but I have a feeling overnight might be trouble. I just don't want to lose power

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[canderson]

3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Is this your way of getting through the wind? Judge free zone my friend 

Yea. I am debating getting a medical marijuana card though to save my liver.  

[sauss06]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'll be in the office as usual. 

Top wind gust so far is 43mph.

Me too

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Is this your way of getting through the wind? Judge free zone my friend 

This isn’t planet fitness, we judge

[Voyager]

56 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Same here peaked to 41.4 this morning then went back to 36 basically the rest of the day.

I didn't even get to 40.

38.5 was my high. Was supposed to be 47.

[Bubbler86]

The MA thread wants to be taken seriously yet we see some questionable analysis over the 30-60 min.  Frustrating to say the least.    Hopefully the good posters are back soon.     At this point it is whatever model has run last over there. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

6 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I just got myself a 4 pack of some new 9% double IPA from new trail and the first one went down like water. Whatever was wrong with me Thursday and Friday passed by Saturday. I also had to deal with 4 9/10 year old girls sleeping over last night for my daughter's birthday.

So far the wind has been way less than I dealt with last week, but I have a feeling overnight might be trouble. I just don't want to lose power

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You still working at Cork and Fork?

 

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Yea. I am debating getting a medical marijuana card though to save my liver.  

There’s no need for a card 

[Jns2183]

Biggest winds philly to ac so far

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[mahantango#1]

Carpet and tile guys slammed the door shut on Pa. getting a snow storm. They said there's too much misinformation on that storm.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Carpet and tile guys slammed the door shut on Pa. getting a snow storm. They said there's too much misinformation on that storm.

[Jns2183]

There’s no need for a card 

I split my time between Cork and the new place, the High Dive. Most of my time isn't customer facing anymore. I come up with and make all the crazy infusions, fat washes, distillations, syrups, foams, and other things that we use for our cocktails. I basically have a whole chemistry lab in the basement of the high dive now. I love it. I also get to be home by 4-5 all but one day during the week and have weekends off. I also do most of the bar side financial analysis for the bar group that includes, the Millworks, watershed, cork, and high dive

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[Jns2183]

Carpet and tile guys slammed the door shut on Pa. getting a snow storm. They said there's too much misinformation on that storm.

Haha, who are these guys again

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[Voyager]

Wind?

I'll be lucky to get a gust over 25 mph. I don't know if my stations anemometer is wrong/broken, or if it really is the fact that I'm boxed in by 400ft hills in close proximity to my house.