mahantango#1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It was announced on abc27 this morning. Do not go over Peters Mountain if you don't have too. It is a solid sheet of slush and ice. I am currently stranded at the top and cars are stuck everywhere. It is 618 Sunday morning 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 19 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I’m hearing of power outages down south from the incoming wind 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If we get 55-65 we can probably assume the worst here AND despite the drought, the ground is quite wet at the top layer right now for smaller/more shallow trees. Yes, the wind is definitely going to be a problem. We've had an ongoing wind/tree problem here all winter. In fact, one event bit me in the ass back in early January. I was coming off the Blue Mountain northbound and as I rounded a bend in the road, a tree had fallen and lowered the wires that crossed over 309. Lucky me. I was the first tractor trailer there, and I caught those low wires with the trailer and snapped a telephone pole and brought every wire completely down across the road, and caused a royal mess. Cops took the report, said it wasn't my fault, and sent me on my way, but it tied up traffic there for over half a day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: It was announced on abc27 this morning. Do not go over Peters Mountain if you don't have too. It is a solid sheet of slush and ice. I am currently stranded at the top and cars are stuck everywhere. It is 618 Sunday morning When we were looking for a place in 2018 we looked from Adamstown to Hometown to areas up 11/15 and eventually over here...and the number one thing my wife eventually found is she wanted nothing to do with coming into the Harrisburg area from the mountains to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Bubbler86 said: When we were looking for a place in 2018 we looked from Adamstown to Homestown to areas up 11/15 and eventually over here...and the number one thing my wife eventually found is she wanted nothing to do with coming into the Harrisburg area from the mountains to the north. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, mahantango#1 said: Why? The reason you just posted, high chance of winter weather issue that are not present anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Low of 33 and currently 35. 24-Hr QPF was .6”. Pleasantly surprised to still have a yard full of snow. Temp rise here has been much slower than forecasted. Now we prepare for some vicious winds ugh. Stinks to see the trends for the midweek storm. This one really stings given what all the models were showing just a couple of days ago, granted they were still a week out so big changes were expected. Not throwing in the towel yet, at all, but at the very least the big dog scenario seems to be mostly off the table. We’ll see what the next 24 hours bring but the trend most of the season has been for things to get shunted south and east. Fingers crossed for at least a light to moderate type overrunning event. Happy Sunday, all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: When we were looking for a place in 2018 we looked from Adamstown to Hometown to areas up 11/15 and eventually over here...and the number one thing my wife eventually found is she wanted nothing to do with coming into the Harrisburg area from the mountains to the north. Have you always been whipped? Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The reason you just posted, high chance of winter weather issue that are not present anywhere else. That must have been bad on Peters Mountain this morning State Police were there like rescuing people that were stranded. Peters mountain as I keep saying is a dividing line on the weather between the Lower Susquehanna and the Middle Susquehanna. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It is the first high wind warning since February 2019, per CTP. That storm took out a lot of my siding and some shingles. I fear a tree coming down on us overnight. No sleep for me the next 36 or so hours. Winds won’t calm down Tuesday afternoon. They’re going to have to extend wind headlines into Tuesday. This is going to suuuuuuuxk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: It's become entertaining how every model is jumping around like I have honestly not seen. Sorry to see the 6z Euro drop east some but Eps had a bigger jump se. It would be nice if the Nam with one of its classic NW jumps was correct. In the end, this strikes me as the first big storm of the season when Sby got around a foot and I got 3". It's almost as if we should relegate 100+ hour model discussion to a separate thread for wish casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, WmsptWx said: It's almost as if we should relegate 100+ hour model discussion to a separate thread for wish casting. How is having a meteorological discussion of why a model is doing something a wish cast? LOL. Now if you mean the snow maps, which I do sometimes too, then carry on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Not throwing in the towel yet, at all, but at the very least the big dog scenario seems to be mostly off the table. We’ll see what the next 24 hours bring but the trend most of the season has been for things to get shunted south and east. Fingers crossed for at least a light to moderate type overrunning event. Happy Sunday, all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: That must have been bad on Peters Mountain this morning State Police were there like rescuing people that were stranded. Peters mountain as I keep saying is a dividing line on the weather between the Lower Susquehanna and the Middle Susquehanna. We were looking in the 209 corridor. Quite the different world there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: It's almost as if we should relegate 100+ hour model discussion to a separate thread for wish casting. I think everyone realizes that model forecasts beyond 48-72 hours are not to be taken as gospel. Otoh and maybe unfortunately, they are correct beyond 72 hours in rare circumstances and when we see the kind of snowfall many runs they were showing this week, weenies naturally want them to be correct this time. As such, as long as models generate forecast past 48 or 78 hours, I don't think anything will change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: How is having a meteorological discussion of why a model is doing something a wish cast? LOL. Now if you mean the snow maps, which I do sometimes too, then carry on. Yes. To clarify, I mean the snow maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: How is having a meteorological discussion of why a model is doing something a wish cast? LOL. Now if you mean the snow maps, which I do sometimes too, then carry on. Exactly, thanks & snow maps are just showing model output. Just because a poster posts a map doesn’t necessarily mean that is their forecast or that it should be believed. We just show what an official weather model had for that particular run. Also those of us that have been doing this for decades know that storms can show on the models, get “lost” for a day or 2 and then come back to original ideas sometimes. Maybe some people on here should find another board if they don’t like or understand how things work in this hobby or profession for some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Have you always been whipped? Lol Not as whipped as me. I returned to PA when I really wanted to stay in AZ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: Yes. To clarify, I mean the snow maps. What does it matter a snow map is a model discussion. It is not the actual weather until it would happen. If you don’t like it go to another forum or board. Get over it and ignore it if you need to! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: Not as whipped as me. I returned to PA when I really wanted to stay in AZ... Hey, I got dragged up from Maryland so my wife could babysit our grandchildren often...too often. It wasn't my idea. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 If we don't have a winter storm to get excited about right now. We have this high wind warning to replace that storm. If it gets bad (power companies cold be overwhelmed) some people could be without power for more than 24 hours. Being without power with those winds and cold temps won't be pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Exactly, thanks & snow maps are just showing model output. Just because a poster posts a map doesn’t necessarily mean that is their forecast or that it should be believed. We just show what an official weather model had for that particular run. Also those of us that have been doing this for decades know that storms can show on the models, get “lost” for a day or 2 and then come back to original ideas sometimes. Maybe some people on here should find another board if they don’t like or understand how things work in this hobby or profession for some. The snow maps do not bother me and on this board in particular they seem to be popular but if someone says they see folly in posting snow maps with no science behind them/explanation of why, then I cannot argue too much as they do have a valid point (though again I am not a fan of separate boards or moderation.) Many, many, many snow maps are posted for naught if you look at it after the fact. To me the Snow maps are the fun side of the board but not fun for everyone I guess. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CASH_COOP Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Storm summary for yesterday: 1.8” snow 0.4” IP .10” ZR 0.66” liquid On a sad note there was a fatal car accident on Cold Springs Rd this morning. I’m sure it was icy and foggy up there at an elevation of 1600ft. Still only 31.9 currently 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Nam is similar through 45. Probably would not see what the boundary is going to be until hour 70+. On another note, it was 33 when I got up this AM. It is up to 43 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Nam at 60 is holding fairly steady. I would think this will lead to some waa snows into PA again when the panels get into the later 70's. Worlds difference in where the weak S/S system is here vs. the souther models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Most of PA (2/3ish) has light to moderate snow mid morning Wed on the 75 Nam panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Low in Central GA. A good one. PV/Center of high still sitting in Canada. Note how the contours are pointing NE up through PA but still East to West down in VA. That will limit how far north it can get at this stage (without a phase). The Nam will be a fairly decent snow storm in the LSV. GL with the other models at 12Z. My PBB work is done for the afternoon. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 44 minutes ago, paweather said: What does it matter a snow map is a model discussion. It is not the actual weather until it would happen. If you don’t like it go to another forum or board. Get over it and ignore it if you need to! Your "love it or leave it attitude" fucking sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, WmsptWx said: Your "love it or leave it attitude" fucking sucks. I honestly don’t care what sucks. I’m being honest ignore the snow maps if you don’t like them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 45 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Low in Central GA. A good one. PV/Center of high still sitting in Canada. Note how the contours are pointing NE up through PA but still East to West down in VA. That will limit how far north it can get at this stage (without a phase). The Nam will be a fairly decent snow storm in the LSV. GL with the other models at 12Z. My PBB work is done for the afternoon. Yes, here’s the end of the NAM at 84 hours with more to go this run if it continued. All long range NAM caveats aside, it shows another potential option to get at least a moderate event to the LSV. 12z NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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