mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, paweather said: I haven’t heard anything about the GFS. Can’t be good. Gfs and Canadian are next to nothing literally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 24 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: Please stop…the joke is getting old. So are your posts… I’m still waiting for your first ever quality post… Maybe take a break? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs and Canadian are next to nothing literally. Like...outside of a small area in Delmarva it's almost a non event relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, mitchnick said: Gfs and Canadian are next to nothing literally. Damn can’t catch a break this winter. But I’ll take the winter this year than the last 2. Maybe March brings a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Maybe another 1-2” event if we get lucky next week? Sucks but the phase we need seems to be out of reach. What a terrible turn of events. But storms have stayed S all year so why change now. It has been a fun winter even if it’s close to being over and we strike out on all the positive influences next week. It happens. Totals aren’t big here but it’s felt and looked like winter since early January. Now we can focus on the major wind storm hitting PA. It’s gong to be news worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Hey y'all! Just popping in to say we might be staring down a big one potentially for next week. I am cautiously optimistic about areas east of Rt15 and south of I-78 for some significant snowfall potential. Still a ways to go and it's delicate, so stay vigilant, but I can't say I hate what I'm seeing right now in the overall pattern. Fingers crossed! Nevermind…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Maybe another 1-2” event if we get lucky next week? Sucks but the phase we need seems to be out of reach. What a terrible turn of events. But strokes have stayed S all year so why change now. it’s been a fun winter even if it’s close to being over and we strike out on all the positive influences next week. It happens. Now we can focus on the major wind storm hitting PA. It’s gong to be news worthy. I hate destructive wx like wind. Ughh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The towel waving is laughable… The Winter is over talk is laughable… How do some of you people give up so easily? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I’m making lots of notes for when this comes back… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The towel waving is laughable… The Winter is over talk is laughable… How do some of you people give up so easily? I haven’t given up. It’s just not looking likely that we get a big storm. That’s what I was hoping for. When we get to late winter, the nickel and dime stuff doesn’t stick around long. I am big storm hunting and I thought we had a chance. I don’t want 2-4 or 3-6. Maybe that can explain my disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The towel waving is laughable… The Winter is over talk is laughable… How do some of you people give up so easily? 31 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m making lots of notes for when this comes back… Everyone of us is different and each copes with disappointment in their own way. It might be frustrating when people think/act the opposite of you but at the end of the day...they're entitled to feel the way they do. I haven't given up. But I don't feel confident at all when one of the best Mets on the entire board basically gave up several posts back. It's hard to ignore that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 @Itstrainingtimementioned this a few hours back, and I have been experiencing the very same thing. For the past 9 hours my temperature has stayed between 32.2 degrees and 32.4 degrees. My temperature graph is a pure straight line. Since the time the snow ended and the briefly freezing rain changed to plain rain I have recorded an additional 0.25" of precipitation (all rain) which gives me a total of 0.40" of melted liquid for the day. Almost all of the rainfall has been absorbed into the snowpack, but with a temperature so close to freezing hardly any snow has melted. It's still totally white out there. What a day! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Everyone of us is different and each copes with disappointment in their own way. It might be frustrating when people think/act the opposite of you but at the end of the day...they're entitled to feel the way they do. I haven't given up. But I don't feel confident at all when one of the best Mets on the entire board basically gave up several posts back. It's hard to ignore that. May I add that it is also hard to ignore psuhoffman's incredible historical essay or JB's emphatic comments as well. It will definitely be interesting to see all the jostling by the mets everywhere over the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Been pretty busy today. 2.4” (tied for second biggest snowfall this winter lol) was my total snowfall this morning and it’s been occasional freezing rain/drizzle since. Still at 31.6ºF and still actively icing on the trees and the driveway with the next batch of rain coming in. Don’t expect much movement in temp here until the mid-morning most likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Here’s my take on next week’s system. I’m seeing a problem of amplification out west right now. If you’re gonna throw in classic big east coast storm comparisons like a Jan 96 et al you better have a good western ridge set. What I’m seeing in the progs today is there’s shortwave coming ashore on the west coast that seems like its dampening/pushing the ridging that pops up before it ever really builds to allow that 500mb shortwave in the northern plains to drop in and bring the coastal up. So instead the southern feature goes out ahead and elongates the whole thing and doesn’t allow that coastal to turn the whole way up. I think the eventual handling/interaction of that shortwave that comes into the west while all the rest of this is coming out on playing field is going play a big part on whether this comes fully back to a big threat or not. Or.. if some part of the Mid-Atlantic piles more snow up below us. But, if the coastal does end up going wagons south and east with the primary coastal in the end… I do still think a widespread lighter to perhaps even moderate snowfall in places is quite possible in PA from the upper feature, as it’s a pretty strong 500mb low that tracks over the state and there will still likely be some kind of interaction with the southern feature in that scenario. So while I’m fairly pessimistic about scoring the big hitter at the moment I’m definitely not thinking this is a complete non-event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m making lots of notes for when this comes back… I don't know if that's supposed to be directed to me, but I haven't given up on next week. I never said that, which is why I was clear to say "after next week" our time is short. But what's it matter what the opinions of others are? They have no control over the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 High Wind Warning URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 312 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 PAZ006-011-012-019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-170400- /O.UPG.KCTP.HW.A.0001.250216T1700Z-250217T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.HW.W.0001.250216T1800Z-250217T2100Z/ Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Southern Centre-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of McConnellsburg, Huntingdon, Wellsboro, Sunbury, Mount Union, Hershey, Lebanon, Renovo, State College, Laporte, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Gettysburg, York, Trout Run, Lancaster, Mansfield, Mifflintown, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Carlisle, Lock Haven, Newport, Harrisburg, Berwick, Danville, Pottsville, Selinsgrove, Coudersport, Emporium, Chambersburg, and Lewistown 312 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 50 to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest wind gusts are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The strong winds will usher in much colder air, with temperatures in the 10s and 20s and wind chills ranging from the single digits below zero in northern PA to teens in southern PA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not touch downed lines and report any power outages to your electric company. Travel is highly discouraged due to slick roadways and the possibility of downed trees and power lines. Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Everyone of us is different and each copes with disappointment in their own way. It might be frustrating when people think/act the opposite of you but at the end of the day...they're entitled to feel the way they do. I haven't given up. But I don't feel confident at all when one of the best Mets on the entire board basically gave up several posts back. It's hard to ignore that. Why only Directed at Blizz ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Never mind I forgot about tribes. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 10:45 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:45 AM 0z Euro has Warning snow of 6 to 10 for the LSV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CASH_COOP Posted Sunday at 12:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:00 PM 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z Euro has Warning snow of 6 to 10 for the LSV. Lancaster hit hard on that run. Long way to go with this one. Once all the pieces of energy are over the lower 48 is when I have better faith in the models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 12:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:18 PM Just opened one model so far this AM and it has hardly changed from yesterday 12Z except the precip field. It is a tiny bit S/E this AM which does make a difference but with all the different reasons being thrown around for when systems are or are not amping at certain locations, the Icon is a basic Miller A which turns the corner of the boundary tracks. 12Z Yesterday 6Z Today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 12:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:23 PM The Nam is in great position to throw decent over running snows over a good portion of PA. 540 line is in VA not the Carolinas like it is on the rgem. The back stream reasons behind this are a fascinating discuss but seems people like the snow maps and final results more. The position of the high is a big reason for difference boundary positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 12:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:30 PM 4 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said: High Wind Warning URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 312 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 PAZ006-011-012-019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-170400- /O.UPG.KCTP.HW.A.0001.250216T1700Z-250217T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.HW.W.0001.250216T1800Z-250217T2100Z/ Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Southern Centre-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of McConnellsburg, Huntingdon, Wellsboro, Sunbury, Mount Union, Hershey, Lebanon, Renovo, State College, Laporte, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Gettysburg, York, Trout Run, Lancaster, Mansfield, Mifflintown, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Carlisle, Lock Haven, Newport, Harrisburg, Berwick, Danville, Pottsville, Selinsgrove, Coudersport, Emporium, Chambersburg, and Lewistown 312 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 50 to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest wind gusts are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The strong winds will usher in much colder air, with temperatures in the 10s and 20s and wind chills ranging from the single digits below zero in northern PA to teens in southern PA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not touch downed lines and report any power outages to your electric company. Travel is highly discouraged due to slick roadways and the possibility of downed trees and power lines. Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds. I worry that this may be a time that these warnings actually verify. We have had a string of events where the worst winds were with little or no highlighting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 12:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:32 PM 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Nam is in great position to throw decent over running snows over a good portion of PA. 540 line is in VA not the Carolinas like it is on the rgem. The back stream reasons behind this are a fascinating discuss but seems people like the snow maps and final results more but that boundary is and push from the pressure high is a big reason. It's become entertaining how every model is jumping around like I have honestly not seen. Sorry to see the 6z Euro drop east some but Eps had a bigger jump se. It would be nice if the Nam with one of its classic NW jumps was correct. In the end, this strikes me as the first big storm of the season when Sby got around a foot and I got 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 12:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:41 PM 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's become entertaining how every model is jumping around like I have honestly not seen. Sorry to see the 6z Euro drop east some but Eps had a bigger jump se. It would be nice if the Nam with one of its classic NW jumps was correct. In the end, this strikes me as the first big storm of the season when Sby got around a foot and I got 3". I feel it has been a winter where the ridges have asserted themselves more than we want...and not talking the usual SER. More from the Northwest. I also feel like there have been two camps with this system so far, a classic Miller A which is wholly dependent on where the boundary is, and Miller B or hybrid type solutions. Too far out for the Meso's to show their hand on that though but if option one we need less of a push from the high and option b needs a possible collab from the N/S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 12:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:52 PM 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I feel it has been a winter where the ridges have asserted themselves more than we want...and not talking the usual SER. More from the Northwest. I also feel like there have been two camps with this system so far, a classic Miller A which is wholly dependent on where the boundary is, and Miller B or hybrid type solutions. Too far out for the Meso's to show their hand on that though but if option one we need less of a push from the high and option b needs a possible collab from the N/S. Responding to a post in the MA I said: I'm sure you haven't looked at the 6z Nam very closely, but it simply parks the tpv over the Dakotas and appears to be all southern stream. Maybe that's a victory as well, to keep the tpv more or less stationary and let the southern vort pivot counterclockwise around it. Of course, the kicker might just wreck that option in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 12:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:55 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Responding to a post in the MA I said: I'm sure you haven't looked at the 6z Nam very closely, but it simply parks the tpv over the Dakotas and appears to be all southern stream. Maybe that's a victory as well, to keep the tpv more or less stationary and let the southern vort pivot counterclockwise around it. Of course, the kicker might just wreck that option in future runs. Yea, spot on. The easier way to win in my opinion. Less influence from the High/TPV and we have ourselves a Secs/Mecs Miller A. Otherwise, we need the "kicker" (AKA the N/S trough) to suck the storm back as it is going to go wide with that boundary in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted Sunday at 12:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:59 PM I’m hearing of power outages down south from the incoming wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 01:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:02 PM 2 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I’m hearing of power outages down south from the incoming wind If we get 55-65 we can probably assume the worst here AND despite the drought, the ground is quite wet at the top layer right now for smaller/more shallow trees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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