Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, AccuChris said: The latest from JB to add to the debate/discussion . Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 17 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: It will not. Again, I'm not quoting myself. "It will snow where it has snowed." Until something in the atmosphere changes the storm track from MA-eastward, that is where the storm will track. Only a sith deals in absolutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I personally agree with this assertion in why the GFS should have shown more precip back over and into the 500 low. And his other points are valid but that is not what the GFS did so there has to be a reason the shuttered the entire southern complex well into the ocean. I fear it was the influence from a stronger higher to the NW combined with a lagging NS. I thought of you when I was reading Hoffman's post. Makes total sense what you're both saying. Really interesting stuff to consider and watch for. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 When did our forum pick up so many Debs? A lot of football spiking for 100+ hours out. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 35 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: Pure speculation and wishcasting at its finest. Please stop and live in the moment and seasonal trends. It doesn’t look good right now with today’s trends. Maybe light/moderate event sure. Hope I’m wrong, but wishcasting does no one any good. Lol, how about you don’t accuse me of anything & stop freaking posting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, how about you don’t accuse me of anything & stop freaking posting? I merely answered the question of when the comeback starts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said: When did our forum pick up so many Debs? A lot of football spiking for 100+ hours out. My contention is from being spoiled over the past 20-25 years. We used to average a double digit snowstorm about once a decade. They started to become commonplace to the point where they've become an unrealistic expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I merely answered the question of when the comeback starts? You don’t know with 100% certainty that the models will move back north tomorrow at 12z. You’re hopeful that they will (like the rest of us on here are), but you can’t say that for certain. I hope I eat crow tomorrow at 12z and you are right, but you don’t know that for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: My contention is from being spoiled over the past 20-25 years. We used to average a double digit snowstorm about once a decade. They started to become commonplace to the point where they've become an unrealistic expectation. THIS. People forget how rare this stuff is supposed to be. So many ways to fail, always and forever. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 17 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: When did our forum pick up so many Debs? A lot of football spiking for 100+ hours out. about the time people started to realize that models suck even just 3-5 days out. yes its nice to chase the storm 10 days out but it seems to never happen any more. only time we end up getting storms that do anything are the storms that come out of no where and were not on any model runs until 3-4 days out or over performing storms. I just dont know why its so hard for people on this site to admit models suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Years ago for many years we could count on one big storm for every winter. And that consisted of a storm that produced at least 8 inches. But that don't seem like it happens much anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: THIS. People forget how rare this stuff is supposed to be. So many ways to fail, always and forever. I grew up in the 70s. Outside of February 1978 it was a brutal decade. It would be carnage in here if that was repeated. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 13 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: You don’t know with 100% certainty that the models will move back north tomorrow at 12z. You’re hopeful that they will (like the rest of us on here are), but you can’t say that for certain. I hope I eat crow tomorrow at 12z and you are right, but you don’t know that for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I grew up in the 70s. Outside of February 1978 it was a brutal decade. It would be carnage in here if that was repeated. Back then we did not have "constant rumors" of the great pattern since our childhood. Sometimes the Interwebs take away some of the enjoyment. Growing up a 2-4" snow used to be fun and an event, now it is often a "what if'. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Back then we did not have "constant rumors" of the great pattern since our childhood. Sometimes the Interwebs take away some of the enjoyment. Growing up a 2-4" snow used to be fun and an event, now it is often a "what if'. So true! I got excited for 3-6"! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It's funny to watch speculation being counterd with speculation. Positive or negative it's still speculation . I've always read here that getting emotional over a run or two is also not in anyones best interest, Fellows. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I grew up in the 70s. Outside of February 1978 it was a brutal decade. It would be carnage in here if that was repeated. There were some brutal winters in the mid late 70's. I experienced them. In January 1977 the ground was froze 2feet down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 about the time people started to realize that models suck even just 3-5 days out. yes its nice to chase the storm 10 days out but it seems to never happen any more. only time we end up getting storms that do anything are the storms that come out of no where and were not on any model runs until 3-4 days out or over performing storms. I just dont know why its so hard for people on this site to admit models suck You don't have to look at them you knowSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 31 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I grew up in the 70s. Outside of February 1978 it was a brutal decade. It would be carnage in here if that was repeated. I don't think it would and I'll tell you why: The Euro got lucky and sniffed out two generational snowstorms in a week and then sniffed out a once-in-a-lifetime tropical system about 18 months later. If we had gone through the 70s with no idea that the models once saw monsters, this nonsense of chasing models 300 hours out would be considered insane. Some of the "Debs" on here are being realistic. Optimists look at realists as pessimists. The likely fact is: The predominant storm track of this, a La Niña winter will quite likely be the storm track next week's event takes. It's just not "our year." And the storm that likely takes a different path will bring rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: You don't have to look at them you know Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk You can't just not notice tiddies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Regarding models - IF...and this is a huge IF...but if we end up getting shutout this week I WILL start giving some credence to the AI. It has consistently been SE all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Regarding models - IF...and this is a huge IF...but if we end up getting shutout this week I WILL start giving some credence to the AI. It has consistently been SE all along. Both of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I don't think it would and I'll tell you why: The Euro got lucky and sniffed out two generational snowstorms in a week and then sniffed out a once-in-a-lifetime tropical system about 18 months later. If we had gone through the 70s with no idea that the models once saw monsters, this nonsense of chasing models 300 hours out would be considered insane. Some of the "Debs" on here are being realistic. Optimists look at realists as pessimists. The likely fact is: The predominant storm track of this, a La Niña winter will quite likely be the storm track next week's event takes. It's just not "our year." And the storm that likely takes a different path will bring rain. I think it might be good to see what happens to the current powerful storm cutting to Detroit that's proged to blow away half this forum tomorrow afternoon. Models do tend to have difficulty in handling these setups. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Blizzard warning in Garrett county, MD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On the kicker discussion, which is also raging in the ma forum, what I do not get is what people would expect to happen if it was not there? I see the kicker/ns energy as the very thing that could capture this low (whether one believes if is forming on the wrong boundary or not.). I think the Gfs depiction seems quite clear in that it is forming energy on the boundary which is so very far south next week due to the advancing tpv. Without that NS wave I feel like whatever forms would be a fast moving wave that has little in the way of northward adjustment. This is for open convo, I could be totally wrong, but I have never heard the word kicker in these forums more than the last 24 hours. It seems to be a panacea to try and explain away bad model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Ruin said: about the time people started to realize that models suck even just 3-5 days out. yes its nice to chase the storm 10 days out but it seems to never happen any more. only time we end up getting storms that do anything are the storms that come out of no where and were not on any model runs until 3-4 days out or over performing storms. I just dont know why its so hard for people on this site to admit models suck I’m convinced that you think “models suck” but I’ve never seen you post any data. Feel free to provide your forecast based on an alternative. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: My contention is from being spoiled over the past 20-25 years. We used to average a double digit snowstorm about once a decade. They started to become commonplace to the point where they've become an unrealistic expectation. I wouldn’t put you in the Deb group Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 23 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I’m convinced that you think “models suck” but I’ve never seen you post any data. Feel free to provide your forecast based on an alternative. um just look in this forum? how many times do models show a big storm 10 days out 5 days out 3 days out only to be like nah never mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: You don't have to look at them you know Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk yes but its what forecasts go by and what every one posts. Im just point out cant they do a better job with it? does any one know here how accurate any of the models are? do they have a tracking website where it shows hits or missing with what they showed what would happen vs what did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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