Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: For tomorrow, 3K feel more in line with other meso's with 1-2" in the middle and Northern parks of the LSV. 12K as well. 12K moved the "fall line" for snow north about 1/2 county across the board due to dry slotting. 12K has a jackpot of 2-54" NE of Harrisburg closer to Accuchris and paweather. There have been a LOT of meso runs that continue to pinpoint @Voyager's area for a local maxima (to steal @Itstrainingtime's new favorite word ha). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: There have been a LOT of meso runs that continue to pinpoint @Voyager's area for a local maxima (to steal @Itstrainingtime's new favorite word ha). I felt pretty sure we would get a gyre from him today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: We're going to need full locked-in Nut for next week haha. I’m confused. Today is Valentine’s Day? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: This is one of the rare (in memory) times the last few years that a solution was shown, it went away, and then came back...in this case a more wintery vs. dry or wet day tomorrow. Saturday looked quite wintery several days ago and slowed leaked to almost nothing...and is now back in full force. Thanks for the jinx! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: There have been a LOT of meso runs that continue to pinpoint @Voyager's area for a local maxima (to steal @Itstrainingtime's new favorite word ha). I've been noticing that while perusing the varius models, plus your mentioning it. NWS is still on for what looks to be possibly 2-4, but they now bumped up the ice potential from less than 0.1" to 0.1" to 0.2" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Thanks for the jinx! Lol Pretty much, I suck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Next week's system has become increasingly ominous and holds potential for significant to major impacts from DC - NYC and even BOS. There are a few features that make this such a favorable setup, mirroring past major and even historic storms: The most important feature of this setup is the retrograding and decaying west-based -NAO that migrates into central Canada. This is perhaps the most important feature for major EC snowstorms, and it is a huge factor here, as it slows the pattern down and locks in confluence. It also leads to the "banana" HP that often develops in these setups due to NVA downstream of the block. This is a lobe of the polar vortex (PV) that is the impetus for the storm threat. This lobe becomes trapped under the block and will be forced to pivot under it, leading to a potential phase with the southern stream vort (x) over TX/OK. This kind of slow-moving, amplified ULL is also a main feature of major storm threats. As is common in these setups, a disturbance, either coastal or otherwise, amplifies into the northern Atlantic and becomes trapped by the block, leading to a 50/50 ULL that departs. This is crucial for establishing confluence, which keeps heights in check downstream of the amplifying trough. Note how heights are zonal over ME and Atlantic Canada. Last but not least, there is a transient spike in heights over the Pacific NW that links up with the blocking. This is a crucial piece of the puzzle... if that disturbance offshore destructively interferes with the blossoming +PNA, you get a weaker solution. However, the trend has been for constructive interference, which helps lead to downstream amplification. It's also worth noting that this setup very closely mirrors past setups that delivered historic snowfall to the northern Mid-Atlantic. Yes, it's for NYC, but you guys generally want the same pattern, and there is a lot of overlap between HECS for NYC and BWI/DC. Notice the 500mb composite that has all four main features... the retrograding and decaying block, the amplifying trough over the MS River Valley, departing confluence, and a brief PNA spike as the storm is getting its act together. Suffice it to say, this is probably the best synoptic setup that we have seen enter the medium range since February 2021 (I'd run that one back down there if I were you guys) and it does hold the potential to be just as impactful. The GFS not being on board is pretty common in these setups. However, we will want to see this amplification signal enter the 96 hour window, so if we see this signal last into Monday, talks about a legitimate major snowstorm will hold more weight. Right now, it's worth being cautious, but the pattern has been screaming this kind of outcome for a week now, and it is bolstered by past outcomes. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Pretty much, I suck. I never bought it, but was surprised when the Nam and Gfs came back. I think the Canadians were always partial to it. Euro and Ukie were always nyet, so I sorta just figured it wouldn't happen. Now watch me get 2"! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I never bought it, but was surprised when the Nam and Gfs came back. I think the Canadians were always partial to it. Euro and Ukie were always nyet, so I sorta just figured it wouldn't happen. Now watch me get 2"! Lol LOL...of rain? I finally bought in for tomorrow and it is falling apart. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Bubbler86 said: LOL...of rain? Rgem caved to about 1/2" of snow. Now that everything is in line with the Euro tomorrow, let's hope the Euro is leading the way for next week. Though, how the hell this old man is going to shovel 18" of snow is unknown at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Rgem caved to about 1/2" of snow. Now that everything is in line with the Euro tomorrow, let's hope the Euro is leading the way for next week. Though, how the hell this old man is going to shovel 18" of snow is unknown at this time. Icon looks dangerous at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The one Euro thing that isn’t on board for next week currently is the EuroGPT. That thing’s been even more of a whiff than the GFS the last couple runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: The one Euro thing that isn’t on board for next week currently is the EuroGPT. That thing’s been even more of a whiff than the GFS the last couple runs. So is the Copilot GFS but I felt a bit of lessening credence being given to the AI's lately so did not say much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, canderson said: If I don't get a foot-plus of snow and throw my back out shoveling, I directly blame @MAG5035. I say we skip the strongly-worded letter and go straight to beating him with a lock in a sock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: That's fine, get it out of your system now. We're going to need full locked-in Nut for next week haha. Looking forward to it. Happy weekend all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I'm ok now but my fever last night was super damn high and I vaguely remember crazy dreams with some usernames here in themSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: I never bought it, but was surprised when the Nam and Gfs came back. I think the Canadians were always partial to it. Euro and Ukie were always nyet, so I sorta just figured it wouldn't happen. Now watch me get 2"! Lol Im guessing itll be just north of us both, but some mesos continue to eek south, so maybe just maybe the ladies get there 1-2" tonight, and we get our 1-2" tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I'm ok now but my fever last night was super damn high and I vaguely remember crazy dreams with some usernames here in them Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk No comment x 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I do not even have to look at the GFS with the last few posts . Nothing about a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Feels like an all or nothing system for next week. Makes me nervous not having a slug if moisture coming up from the Southwest of us. Basically relying on the system to amplify to the south at the right time and early enough. High bust potential if the system gets going 6 hours to late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, pasnownut said: Guess I shoulda stuck w/ my colder than modeled for tomorrow. I jumped ship yesterday, so no "good call" for me. Darn it. Maybe your call will stand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 32 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I'm ok now but my fever last night was super damn high and I vaguely remember crazy dreams with some usernames here in them Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Go on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 24 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Feels like an all or nothing system for next week. Makes me nervous not having a slug if moisture coming up from the Southwest of us. Basically relying on the system to amplify to the south at the right time and early enough. High bust potential if the system gets going 6 hours to late. The thing, there is a slug of moisture on most globals and it minors out as it comes under us leaving us to hope for an intensification like you suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Pretty much, I suck. 18z Euro finally gets between 1-1.5" imby. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 27 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Euro finally gets between 1-1.5" imby. Lol I am assuming tomorrow is just a wet road day though wgal did fly the Canderson flags and say Sun and Mon will be 2 of the windiest days the LSV has seen in years. The actually have Mon as a travel impact day due to winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 18z Euro still “all in” on major storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Beautiful hit and still snowing after end of run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I am assuming tomorrow is just a wet road day though wgal did fly the Canderson flags and say Sun and Mon will be 2 of the windiest days the LSV has seen in years. The actually have Mon as a travel impact day due to winds. Might need high wind warnings Monday. Sunday looks like wind advisory levels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I am assuming tomorrow is just a wet road day though wgal did fly the Canderson flags and say Sun and Mon will be 2 of the windiest days the LSV has seen in years. The actually have Mon as a travel impact day due to winds. I just heard about the wind. Possibly 60+ mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Voyager said: I just heard about the wind. Possibly 60+ mph? Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. Possibly even stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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