mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Ukie with a nice coastal track that gives like 6-8" to us easterners and drops off as you head NW to about 3" around State College. Biggest totals of a foot around coastal NJ and DE. Still has room to be pulled in. A nice result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Ukie with a nice coastal track that gives like 6-8" to us easterners and drops off as you head NW to about 3" around State College. Biggest totals of a foot around coastal NJ and DE. Still has room to be pulled in. A nice result. Yeah, a little further east than 0z but in the ballpark. Small changes aloft won't be sorted out for a few days and those subtleties will have big implications on the final result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Not to be argumentative, but it actually looked to me like this had an opportunity to be a WHOLE lot better. The low was only about 1004mb off the east coast. It hadn't really bombed out on this run until it was gone. Edit: It definitely went nuclear after that! Not sure anyone disagrees, but at this juncture, you surely know all we can do is look for a growing consensus, before we parse over details. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 When it comes to forecasts, most locals I talk to or overhear usually cite output from WGAL or WHTM (and rarely, the NWS, sadly). I'm guessing most of our family, friends, coworkers, etc know we're weather weenies and look to us as "being in the know". So when you provide the latest to them, what's your method? Average the latest model runs in your head and customize a forecast? Weight output from the NWS a little heavier? A favorite source here or elsewhere? Don't touch the subject with a ten foot pole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Thanks, makes sense that Kuch would be a little better. I only have access to 10:1 for the Ukie, should have known to add on a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Festus said: When it comes to forecasts, most locals I talk to or overhear usually cite output from WGAL or WHTM (and rarely, the NWS, sadly). I'm guessing most of our family, friends, coworkers, etc know we're weather weenies and look to us as "being in the know". So when you provide the latest to them, what's your method? Average the latest model runs in your head and customize a forecast? Weight output from the NWS a little heavier? A favorite source here or elsewhere? Don't touch the subject with a ten foot pole? I take it all in. All of it ha. Then just try and come up with a very broad high-level view of what's most likely to happen and go with that, while hedging a bit to known biases or extremes. A blended model approach is usually a solid way to go. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 51 minutes ago, Superstorm said: lol….we are the redheads stepchildren of NWS State College. . Quite frankly, again, neither York nor Lancaster should be covered by State College. Give Lancaster to Mt Holly. York to Sterling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Festus said: When it comes to forecasts, most locals I talk to or overhear usually cite output from WGAL or WHTM (and rarely, the NWS, sadly). I'm guessing most of our family, friends, coworkers, etc know we're weather weenies and look to us as "being in the know". So when you provide the latest to them, what's your method? Average the latest model runs in your head and customize a forecast? Weight output from the NWS a little heavier? A favorite source here or elsewhere? Don't touch the subject with a ten foot pole? Personally, I go with my localized climate and also 50+ years of history. I remember everything. After that amount of time and data collection, general trends start to emerge. I know that in Lanco we should never count on a clipper due to downsloping unless the track is roughly through NOVA. I know that big east coast storms generally mix here much faster and more often than any model will show...I learned that the hard way and also from Horst years ago. Someone questioned him why he was calling for sleet when no other forecaster or model showed it, his reply was they were all wrong because there's nothing to impede that flow off the ocean in our area. Things like that stick with me. And my notes. As far as actual forecasters, I do rely on MU the most but also factor in what some mets in here say. @MAG5035 is someone whom I trust and respect and heed his calls. Also, @MillvilleWx is another, and I think he was a disciple of Eric. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, Festus said: When it comes to forecasts, most locals I talk to or overhear usually cite output from WGAL or WHTM (and rarely, the NWS, sadly). I'm guessing most of our family, friends, coworkers, etc know we're weather weenies and look to us as "being in the know". So when you provide the latest to them, what's your method? Average the latest model runs in your head and customize a forecast? Weight output from the NWS a little heavier? A favorite source here or elsewhere? Don't touch the subject with a ten foot pole? I agree with your assessment in sentence 1. WGAL is the most watched and listened to weather "forecaster" in the area. Many people who just want to know the weather for their daily needs would not like the dry and often changing NWS Zone forecasts and do not know how or want to look at the AFD. I always assumed most here use models vs. forecasters. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I agree with your assessment in sentence 1. WGAL is the most watched and listened to weather "forecaster" in the area. Many people who just want to know the weather for their daily needs would not like the dry and often changing NWS Zone forecasts and do not know how or want to look at the AFD. I always assumed most here use models vs. forecasters. I think that's accurate. And I'm admittedly the dissenter from that group. I maintain that a very good met trumps models the vast majority of the time because an excellent local met is going to give weight to models and then factor in nuances like I started mentioning in my post above that models simply miss. We've had countless storms that mixed in Lanco that not one single model picked up on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Someone pushed Elliott on X for his opinion on next week's event. Right now he's thinking a moderate event for Lanco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I think that's accurate. And I'm admittedly the dissenter from that group. I maintain that a very good met trumps models the vast majority of the time. An excellent local met is going to factor in nuances like I started mentioning in my post above that models simply miss. We've had countless storms that mixed in Lanco that not one single model picked up on. I think part of my reasoning is that if we used forecasters it would not be as fun of a hobby (for some.) re: if someone is just parroting DT or MU is that really fun when it comes to informing friends and family? This is specific to the question from festus, where would you get info to pass to others. Frankly WGAL, which I have on in the back ground most nights, gives as much or more detail as any other forecaster. They are the "weather authority" for TV around here. LOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 EURO nice burst of snow on the front end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think part of my reasoning is that if we used forecasters it would not be as fun of a hobby (for some.) re: if someone is just parroting DT or MU is that really fun when it comes to informing friends and family? This is specific to the question from festus, where would you get info to pass to others. Frankly WGAL, which I have on in the back ground most nights, gives as much or more detail as any other forecaster. They are the "weather authority" for TV around here. LOL. Understood. I'm here for the same reason. I just tend to give more weight elsewhere. Totally agree about WGAL - I think they are leaps and bounds ahead of the Harrisburg stations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z Euro tucked and loaded for next week. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, AccuChris said: 12z Euro tucked and loaded for next week . Acceptable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, AccuChris said: 12z Euro tucked and loaded for next week . WOW you first in line Pivotal is out to 114. Love it Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 What does the euro clown map look like for just tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 What does the euro clown map look like for just tomorrow? Here you go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The Euro definitely a nice hit! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Here you go . Not bad. Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Acceptable. B word along coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Come on…let’s pull this thing west lol it’s our turn! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Blizz spent all of that money on a hotel in center city and has been waiting outside for like 17 hours now. All of that and he's missing the parade because he just passed out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CASH_COOP Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, Superstorm said: B word along coast . KU storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 EPS is beautiful . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Blizz spent all of that money on a hotel in center city and has been waiting outside for like 17 hours now. All of that and he's missing the parade because he just passed out. Sounds like a Penn State football fan going to a playoff game! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, Superstorm said: EPS is beautiful . 8"+ mean over just about the entire LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Throwing all this into that antecedent cold airmass would work just fine, to put it mildly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Sounds like a Penn State football fan going to a playoff game! We pass out from other contributors but the overall result is the same! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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