mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Was last night's Gem posted for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 As great as the Euro was, the 0z Eps snowfall has a familiar "stink" to them. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Was last night's Gem posted for next week? Thanks, I forgot to look at the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 @mitchnick how is the AI looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 As great as the Euro was, the 0z Eps snowfall has a familiar "stink" to them. Lol Just liked they looked for South of DC last week for this weekSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @mitchnick how is the AI looking? 0z was better in that it was a scraper vs a total whiff at 18z. 6z will be out at 8. I'll share. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Thanks, I forgot to look at the Canadian. 0z Canadian would be acceptable, but the upside potential of the Euro would be spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I posted in the MA that models didn't come to the general correct idea (centered south of us) of yesterday's storm until Thursday of last week; basically 5 days prior. We're going to need to wait until this weekend and are in that 5 day period. Modeling outside of 5 days really is garbage 95% of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z Canadian would be acceptable, but the upside potential of the Euro would be spectacular. 6z Euro is not as amped, but that looks to me to be because it's slower. It won't matter what it shows in a few hours so not worth worrying about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I posted in the MA that models didn't come to the general correct idea (centered south of us) of yesterday's storm until Thursday of last week; basically 5 days prior. We're going to need to wait until this weekend and are in that 5 day period. Modeling outside of 5 days really is garbage 95% of the time. I’m just looking for a general agreement of the storm later today or tomorrow. Then fine tune the track within the last 5 days to determine precip issues & jackpot areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I posted in the MA that models didn't come to the general correct idea (centered south of us) of yesterday's storm until Thursday of last week; basically 5 days prior. We're going to need to wait until this weekend and are in that 5 day period. Modeling outside of 5 days really is garbage 95% of the time.I would say 4 days, sometimes 3Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I would say 4 days, sometimes 3 Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk I can't disagree, but considering the crowd, I thought 5 was the outer limit. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I can't disagree, but considering the crowd, I thought 5 was the outer limit. LolI mean sometimes it's 7. I think it depends on the pattern and ultimately upon the paucity of data upstream. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I can't disagree, but considering the crowd, I thought 5 was the outer limit. Lol Not going to post this in the MA forum but Seeing the eps mean really is discouraging. I don't really care if it shows 3" for us. Shows double for southern MD and we've seen enough of this, this season to know how it goes. As you've alluded to probably have another 2 or 3 days before we know more but it wouldn't shock me to see another south of DC Jack. I want to see this amped up as much as possible. I'll take my chances with mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I was looking over some of the latest guidance from the Repeating Uttering Intolerable Nagger and am growing increasingly confident it's on board with the Euro for Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 15 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I would say 4 days, sometimes 3 Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Hours? Coworker walked in my office at 6am and ask what i knew about the 18" storm we're getting next thursday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Not going to post this in the MA forum but Seeing the eps mean really is discouraging. I don't really care if it shows 3" for us. Shows double for southern MD and we've seen enough of this, this season to know how it goes. As you've alluded to probably have another 2 or 3 days before we know more but it wouldn't shock me to see another south of DC Jack. I want to see this amped up as much as possible. I'll take my chances with mixing. I think too amped is more of a concern than southern slider with next week’s chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6z AI another scraper and ever so slightly less qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, anotherman said: The Euro looked REALLY good. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 We picked up 0.23" of freezing rain and rain since last evening. So far this year we are running over 2.5" below normal rainfall. Over the last 14 months we have been running at a slight deficit of 4.90" of precipitation. During this time frame we are running at 91% of normal melted snow/rain. We should put a nice dent in our deficit over this weekend with most models showing upwards of 1" of rain. Tomorrow will be the best weather day of the weekend before snow arrives on Saturday afternoon. Snow will change to rain during the PM. Sunday looks wet through midday. We then turn sharply colder by Sunday night with yet another run of below normal temperatures for most of next week. We have had solidly below normal temperatures across the area since way back on Thanksgiving Day. Expect to hear rumors of a snowstorm by mid to late next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: fyp Wait, what? I was talking about the actual Euro, not the AI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 59 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Euro remains stubborn for Saturday denying those south of central PA of any accumulations. But it seems to be on its own. so in summary. - Toss it for Saturday, - Hug it for 2/20. that was easy.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 18 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Not going to post this in the MA forum but Seeing the eps mean really is discouraging. I don't really care if it shows 3" for us. Shows double for southern MD and we've seen enough of this, this season to know how it goes. As you've alluded to probably have another 2 or 3 days before we know more but it wouldn't shock me to see another south of DC Jack. I want to see this amped up as much as possible. I'll take my chances with mixing. I agree. It's tiresome, but last year DC had a few inches for the whole winter and BWI didn't do much better. I had almost 20". Payback is a biatch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 48 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Just liked they looked for South of DC last week for this week Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk They sure are cashin in this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Low of 33 with .19" of rainfall. Less rain than I expected, which was nice because it allowed everything to remain white. A nice soaker this weekend (maybe some lucky front-end white) before things turn COLD for next week and then we hope for a bigg'n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I think too amped is more of a concern than southern slider with next week’s chance. I wouldnt throw a nickel down. It is just mindbogglng how its either 200 miles South, or 200 miles NW that seem to be the preferred tracks this year. I keep thinking that as the pattern has been rather progressive, that if you throw enough into it, something will stick for all of us. Starting to question that assumption, but the Euro/Ukie gives hope, and GFS has played this game all too often, and I'd think this weekend it brings 2/20 back (if its gonna - andi think it will). at 500, GFS/GEPS argues for a norther correction. GEFS says congrats DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, anotherman said: Wait, what? I was talking about the actual Euro, not the AI. i know. you said it looked good. I said REALLY good. Carry on..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I agree. It's tiresome, but last year DC had a few inches for the whole winter and BWI didn't do much better. I had almost 20". Payback is a biatch. you and I have used this reference before. atmospheric memory. Seems fitting of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I wouldnt throw a nickel down. It is just mindbogglng how its either 200 miles South, or 200 miles NW that seem to be the preferred tracks this year. I keep thinking that as the pattern has been rather progressive, that if you throw enough into it, something will stick for all of us. Starting to question that assumption, but the Euro/Ukie gives hope, and GFS has played this game all too often, and I'd think this weekend it brings 2/20 back (if its gonna - andi think it will). at 500, GFS/GEPS argues for a norther correction. GEFS says congrats DC 6z Gefs isn't congrats DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The possible coming cold could be a newsmaker either way. Does MDT get below zero again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now