Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[mitchnick]

42 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Planet Reality? 

Idk. So different. 

[Ruin]

tonight's low was suppose to be 24 its all ready 24 lol. last night if it wasnt for random cloud cover that came in we would of went into the teens but bottomed out at 22. tonight was forecasted to be warmer but looks like it will be colder.

[mitchnick]

We have a lot of clouds here, so that will limit us with a decent low if they persist. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Already down to 20 in Marysville 

[Blizzard of 93]

3k NAM is starting to pick up the Winter weather idea Sunday evening in the 81 corridor.

[WmsptWx]

Down to 11 here. It's cold.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z RGEm remains consistent for this Sunday night.

[paweather]

4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@paweather might just pass out when he sees this eye candy!

@Blizzard of 93 I’m starting the engines

[Blizzard of 93]

0z GFS ticked colder in the right direction for this Sunday night.

[Voyager]

Down to 10.4 degrees at 5:30am, so might drop into the single digits this morning for the low. And my forecast from CTP went from less than one inch of snow Sunday night to now 1-2 inches for the pre-rain portion of the storm.

Sunday Night

Snow before 4am, then rain and snow. Low around 30. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

[Bubbler86]

25 this AM.  Some parts of Adams near 30.  (Edit down to 23 at 6:38)

[Bubbler86]

Still a tale of two scenarios tomorrow as to Sun snow in the PM.  Models like the Rgem. Euro and Icon have precip way out ahead getting qpf over South Central PA before the cold column escapes to the North East while models that are slower, like the GFS,  HRRR and 3K, have precip not showing until late evening/overnight.   HRRR actually propels the southern LSV into the 40's.  This could be our our only snow for a bit.    PSU poo-pooing LR a bit on the MA thread. 

[WmsptWx]

Eight degrees this morning. CTP posted a WWA for this area for Sunday.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
330 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2024

PAZ010-011-017-142230-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0019.241215T1200Z-241216T0000Z/
Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-
Including the cities of St. Marys, Emporium, DuBois, Clearfield,
and Ridgway
330 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up
  to one inch and ice accumulations less than one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Cameron, Clearfield, and Elk Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Eight degrees this morning. CTP posted a WWA for this area for Sunday.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
330 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2024

PAZ010-011-017-142230-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0019.241215T1200Z-241216T0000Z/
Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-
Including the cities of St. Marys, Emporium, DuBois, Clearfield,
and Ridgway
330 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up
  to one inch and ice accumulations less than one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Cameron, Clearfield, and Elk Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

Watch just to your south for 1/4" ice.

[Voyager]

Well, "technically" I dropped into the single digits, but officially, if I don't drop another half a degree, I'll record a 10 for the morning low.

[Blizzard of 93]

It looks like MDT got down to 18 a little earlier this morning.

[Blizzard of 93]

Low of 15 in Marysville.

Currently 18

[Blizzard of 93]

6z Euro is on board for the I-81 on to the north & west snow train for tomorrow evening.

[mahantango#1]

10.4 this morning.

[mahantango#1]

 

Wxrisk

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5 hours ago

 

 

ABOUT DEC 19–20 and DEC 22–23 EAST COAST THREATS .

In this essay or blog post I will talk about the potential of two winter weather events coming up in the next 8 days across the East Coast. The first event has a higher probability than the second one.

Since the middle of NOV the overall pattern across North America has been dominated by the West Coast Ridge configuration. When the Ridge on West Coast is amplified, it has been reaching into NW Canada and Alaska ( also known as the negative phase of the EPO). Thus has resulted in significant cold air outbreaks for the Eastern CONUS. However the Ridging on the West Coast of North America — no matter how Amplified- is not maintaining its intensity. The very active Pacific jet stream keeps attacking the Ridge and knocking it down which causes the cold air pattern to shut off and allows mild air to overrun the country.

The result has been an oscillating pattern on the West Coast North American between Ridges and Troughs. Next week the Ridge on the West Coast is going to begin another amplification which will result in a significant cold air outbreak and the arrival of a new semi-arctic air mass cold front that will sweep across the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes on December 18 and reach the East Coast on December 19.

Driving this front Southward is a large powerful Arctic HIGH that will drop southward from the Canadian Prairies into Iowa by Thursday morning.

Image #1 shows the 12z and 18z Friday operational GFS model runs. At first glance this looks rather similar to the slow moving cold from that produce significant rains up and down the East Coast and snow in the mountains last Wednesday. But in this case the cold air coming in behind the front is a little stronger and as we saw the GFS is particularly aggressive with a flash over to accumulating snow in the spine of the Appalachian Mountains from NE TENN and far NW NC into upstate NY and northern New england. This seems like a reasonable solution — — but just because the model is offering a reasonable solution doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the correct one.

 

The problem with the GFS solution is that there doesn’t appear to be any reason to think that the cold front is going to slow down like this and allow the cold air to catch up to it. Of course, the GFS could end up being correct but right now I am skeptical.

This image shows the 500mb upper air level maps from the 12z Friday operational European and GFS As the map shows, the GFS is really amping up a piece of energy or shortwave in the base of the Trough on the East Coast on December 19 == which is why the cold front slows down and the cold air catches up to the front so the rain can change the snow. The European model also shows energy in the SE US but it is further to the east so any LOW that develops on the front will do so harmlessly out to sea.

 

The second event has to do something developing after the cold air has arrived on December 20 in the days leading up to Christmas. This potential event has been showing up on some of the AI models as well as the operational GFS runs. The event also MIGHT occur a few days before Christmas and if it were to actually develop….IF.. it could produce a white Christmas for a lot of people on the East Coast especially away from the coast.

This next image shows the 500mb map from the 12z Friday operational GFS valid on DEC 21–22. The model goes crazy with a strong piece of energy coming down in the northern jet stream that rapidly amplifies and closes off into a large closed UPPER LOW in western NC. Not surprisingly this produces a major East Coast LOW pressure area which for some locations would produce a significant snowstorm given the amount of cold air that will be in place on the East Coast.

 

This solution is very different from what the European model showing. As much as I would like to get all excited about the big winter storm idea on the operational GFS models there are a lot of reasons not to be that excited about this possibility.

 

First I cannot look for the life of me to figure out why this piece of energy coming down from northern Canada into the Midwest would suddenly close off into a gargantuan 500 cut off low in Western North Carolina on December 22nd. There is nothing in terms of any kind of blocking signature showing up on any of the upper air Maps the NW Atlantic Greenland or Eastern Canada which would cause this kind of amplification.

Also the MJO — Madden Julian Oscillation — is going to be in Phase 6 which is not a good phase for East Coast winter storms during the winter months, even the fact that the current MJO is pretty strong it’s hard to overlook the fact that the MJO is essentially saying “hey GFS you are full of crap “

This image shows the major East Coast winter for DEC 22 based on the 12 Friday GFS model. Note here that the main surface LOW tracks just inland from SC to central PA which would bring rain to New England and NYC but snow in interior New England PA,. NY , then into western VA, western MD and WV.

 

The Friday 18z operational GFS is just as bullish with the system. S at first glance you might think the consistency on the GFS model is fairly impressive so maybe something is going to happen.

 

However the operational European and the European ensembles are saying no sorry GFS there is not going to be a big East Coast winter storm on December 22. there will be a coastal LOW but it forms earlier and the arctic front hasn’t arrived on the East Coast surface temperatures are way too warm.

 

So in summary the impressive Solutions showing up on the GFS model for the December 19th cold front seems to be overdone. And it doesn’t have a lot of support from any of the models at this point.

And the December 22 potential Big East Coast event really looks unlikely given the upper air pattern and given the fact MO is in Phase 6 which is history known for being anti snow on the East Coast

 

 

 

 

 

Written by Wxrisk

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[pawatch]

8 degrees this morning for the low. Plenty of white frosted grass this morning. 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

 

Wxrisk

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Follow

6 min read

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5 hours ago

 

 

 

 

 

ABOUT DEC 19–20 and DEC 22–23 EAST COAST THREATS .

In this essay or blog post I will talk about the potential of two winter weather events coming up in the next 8 days across the East Coast. The first event has a higher probability than the second one.

Since the middle of NOV the overall pattern across North America has been dominated by the West Coast Ridge configuration. When the Ridge on West Coast is amplified, it has been reaching into NW Canada and Alaska ( also known as the negative phase of the EPO). Thus has resulted in significant cold air outbreaks for the Eastern CONUS. However the Ridging on the West Coast of North America — no matter how Amplified- is not maintaining its intensity. The very active Pacific jet stream keeps attacking the Ridge and knocking it down which causes the cold air pattern to shut off and allows mild air to overrun the country.

The result has been an oscillating pattern on the West Coast North American between Ridges and Troughs. Next week the Ridge on the West Coast is going to begin another amplification which will result in a significant cold air outbreak and the arrival of a new semi-arctic air mass cold front that will sweep across the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes on December 18 and reach the East Coast on December 19.

Driving this front Southward is a large powerful Arctic HIGH that will drop southward from the Canadian Prairies into Iowa by Thursday morning.

Image #1 shows the 12z and 18z Friday operational GFS model runs. At first glance this looks rather similar to the slow moving cold from that produce significant rains up and down the East Coast and snow in the mountains last Wednesday. But in this case the cold air coming in behind the front is a little stronger and as we saw the GFS is particularly aggressive with a flash over to accumulating snow in the spine of the Appalachian Mountains from NE TENN and far NW NC into upstate NY and northern New england. This seems like a reasonable solution — — but just because the model is offering a reasonable solution doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the correct one.

 

The problem with the GFS solution is that there doesn’t appear to be any reason to think that the cold front is going to slow down like this and allow the cold air to catch up to it. Of course, the GFS could end up being correct but right now I am skeptical.

This image shows the 500mb upper air level maps from the 12z Friday operational European and GFS As the map shows, the GFS is really amping up a piece of energy or shortwave in the base of the Trough on the East Coast on December 19 == which is why the cold front slows down and the cold air catches up to the front so the rain can change the snow. The European model also shows energy in the SE US but it is further to the east so any LOW that develops on the front will do so harmlessly out to sea.

 

The second event has to do something developing after the cold air has arrived on December 20 in the days leading up to Christmas. This potential event has been showing up on some of the AI models as well as the operational GFS runs. The event also MIGHT occur a few days before Christmas and if it were to actually develop….IF.. it could produce a white Christmas for a lot of people on the East Coast especially away from the coast.

This next image shows the 500mb map from the 12z Friday operational GFS valid on DEC 21–22. The model goes crazy with a strong piece of energy coming down in the northern jet stream that rapidly amplifies and closes off into a large closed UPPER LOW in western NC. Not surprisingly this produces a major East Coast LOW pressure area which for some locations would produce a significant snowstorm given the amount of cold air that will be in place on the East Coast.

 

This solution is very different from what the European model showing. As much as I would like to get all excited about the big winter storm idea on the operational GFS models there are a lot of reasons not to be that excited about this possibility.

 

First I cannot look for the life of me to figure out why this piece of energy coming down from northern Canada into the Midwest would suddenly close off into a gargantuan 500 cut off low in Western North Carolina on December 22nd. There is nothing in terms of any kind of blocking signature showing up on any of the upper air Maps the NW Atlantic Greenland or Eastern Canada which would cause this kind of amplification.

Also the MJO — Madden Julian Oscillation — is going to be in Phase 6 which is not a good phase for East Coast winter storms during the winter months, even the fact that the current MJO is pretty strong it’s hard to overlook the fact that the MJO is essentially saying “hey GFS you are full of crap “

This image shows the major East Coast winter for DEC 22 based on the 12 Friday GFS model. Note here that the main surface LOW tracks just inland from SC to central PA which would bring rain to New England and NYC but snow in interior New England PA,. NY , then into western VA, western MD and WV.

 

The Friday 18z operational GFS is just as bullish with the system. S at first glance you might think the consistency on the GFS model is fairly impressive so maybe something is going to happen.

 

However the operational European and the European ensembles are saying no sorry GFS there is not going to be a big East Coast winter storm on December 22. there will be a coastal LOW but it forms earlier and the arctic front hasn’t arrived on the East Coast surface temperatures are way too warm.

 

So in summary the impressive Solutions showing up on the GFS model for the December 19th cold front seems to be overdone. And it doesn’t have a lot of support from any of the models at this point.

And the December 22 potential Big East Coast event really looks unlikely given the upper air pattern and given the fact MO is in Phase 6 which is history known for being anti snow on the East Coast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Written by Wxrisk

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What a let down at the end.  LOL

[AccuChris]

Went down to 11° in Lebanon this morning


.

[mahantango#1]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

What a let down at the end.  LOL

And you were counting on a happy ending.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

What a let down at the end.  LOL

There is still a lot to resolve for next weekend.

Everything from whiff to cutter to decent snow hit is still on the table.

[Blizzard of 93]

My focus is on what’s right in front of many of us tomorrow night.

The 6z RGEM remains consistent & gives good Advisory snow to everyone outside of southern York & Lanco.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

There is still a lot to resolve for next weekend.

Everything from whiff to cutter to decent snow hit is still on the table.

I was talking about the actual content of the note.  All that hub bub and and then he drops the hammer. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I was talking about the actual content of the note.  All that hub bub and and then he drops the hammer. 

Gotta love his style.

He is one of a kind.

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

My focus is on what’s right in front of many of us tomorrow night.

The 6z RGEM remains consistent & gives good Advisory snow to everyone outside of southern York & Lanco.

6z Canadian short range herpaderp is on board as well, with more to go when it’s run ends at hour 48

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z Canadian short range herpaderp is on board as well, with more to go when it’s run ends at hour 48

I love ya' Bliz, but those 10:1 accumulation maps will never verify with these marginal events. Kuchera are far from perfect, but will end up being much more accurate with their reduced totals.